Official official offseason thread

Tapate50 said:
There is almost zero doubt that the last years of a Dansby FA deal is going to be an albatross. The bat is going to fade and I think fade hard.

If we wants a 3 year deal, sure. I'm not going 6 for Dansby.
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I don't look at the deeper numbers much (and didn't here), but I have the same impression. The stuff that got him out as a rookie still gets him out today. He hasn't seemed to make any adjustments. He did pick the right time to have a career year, but I think teams are going to look at his whole body of work and pump the brakes a bit.
 
Southcack77 said:
Why it would be conceivable they didn't understand the rules?
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For the same reason JS was forced to trade Millwood due to not understanding the rules.

If we assume they will not go over the cap (reasonable), and we know they need a SS that will almost certainly be expensive, and we know they have very little cap space remaining to afford an expensive SS....

Like I said, the FO screwing up isn't inconceivable.

There are other possibilities, such as blowing past the cap, or somehow unloading salary, or going with internal options, but "they messed up" is also an explanation. I'm not sure why folks can't admit it.
 
Enscheff said:
For the same reason JS was forced to trade Millwood due to not understanding the rules.

If we assume they will not go over the cap (reasonable), and we know they need a SS that will almost certainly be expensive, and we know they have very little cap space remaining to afford an expensive SS....

Like I said, the FO screwing up isn't inconceivable.

There are other possibilities, such as blowing past the cap, or somehow unloading salary, or going with internal options, but "they messed up" is also an explanation. I'm not sure why folks can't admit it.
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JS didn’t have to trade Millwood because he didn’t understand the rules. He traded him because Maddux blindsided him by taking the qualifying offer that no one on Earth thought he was going to accept when he could’ve easily gotten a lucrative multi-year deal somewhere else. That has to be the first and only time in history someone in Maddux’s situation has done something like that.
 
Enscheff said:
For the same reason JS was forced to trade Millwood due to not understanding the rules.

If we assume they will not go over the cap (reasonable), and we know they need a SS that will almost certainly be expensive, and we know they have very little cap space remaining to afford an expensive SS....

Like I said, the FO screwing up isn't inconceivable.

There are other possibilities, such as blowing past the cap, or somehow unloading salary, or going with internal options, but "they messed up" is also an explanation. I'm not sure why folks can't admit it.
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Because not understanding that extensions are counted against the luxury tax using AAV instead of their year-by-year dollar value would be truly breathtaking stupidity. It would be breathtaking stupidity if Anthopolous -- not, by any account, a breathtakingly stupid man -- didn't understand it, and it would be breathtaking stupidity squared and cubed if literally no one else in the front office understood that.

Is it possible that an otherwise very smart and capable front office could be guilty of such a thing? Theoretically, sure. Smart organizations of all sorts do, occasionally, make breathtakingly stupid mistakes. But it would seem to fall way down the ladder of probability.
 
MadduxFanII said:
Because not understanding that extensions are counted against the luxury tax using AAV instead of their year-by-year dollar value would be truly breathtaking stupidity. It would be breathtaking stupidity if Anthopolous -- not, by any account, a breathtakingly stupid man -- didn't understand it, and it would be breathtaking stupidity squared and cubed if literally no one else in the front office understood that.

Is it possible that an otherwise very smart and capable front office could be guilty of such a thing? Theoretically, sure. Smart organizations of all sorts do, occasionally, make breathtakingly stupid mistakes. But it would seem to fall way down the ladder of probability.
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I disagree. It isn't that no one knew about the rule, but more about not looking ahead and putting the salaries together. I work on a lot of projects with a lot of smart people and things are overlooked all the time. not because we didn't understand the banking regulation, but because we were in the weeds of the moment and not stepping back to look from 35,000 feet above to see the simple ripple effects. It is not inconcievable to see something like that happening when they were in the middle of a penant race and dealing with trades/extentions/roster moves/accounting and all the other things a pres of ops has to be over.
 
It was probably known because you have to when it was offered but they pegged the chances of that as EXTREMELY slim.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I disagree. It isn't that no one knew about the rule, but more about not looking ahead and putting the salaries together. I work on a lot of projects with a lot of smart people and things are overlooked all the time. not because we didn't understand the banking regulation, but because we were in the weeds of the moment and not stepping back to look from 35,000 feet above to see the simple ripple effects. It is not inconcievable to see something like that happening when they were in the middle of a penant race and dealing with trades/extentions/roster moves/accounting and all the other things a pres of ops has to be over.
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I guess you can say there is a chance they didn't consider everything. But McGurik is always the one AA goes to to sign off on large extensions, moves, and anything money related. I promise you, they have a whole team of accountants that do nothing but work on the budget.

Working in sales, you can't do a deal unless you know what the product you are selling costs you. Same concept here. AA can't know what he can sign these guys for if he doesn't know what his future budget or constraints will be.

I think we are all going to be shocked this offseason. Not that we will sign deGrom and a SS. But I believe we will get one of the 4 (Swanson being the likelier of the bunch) and then a few fringe moves like we have seen with the bull pen
 
MadduxFanII said:
Because not understanding that extensions are counted against the luxury tax using AAV instead of their year-by-year dollar value would be truly breathtaking stupidity. It would be breathtaking stupidity if Anthopolous -- not, by any account, a breathtakingly stupid man -- didn't understand it, and it would be breathtaking stupidity squared and cubed if literally no one else in the front office understood that.

Is it possible that an otherwise very smart and capable front office could be guilty of such a thing? Theoretically, sure. Smart organizations of all sorts do, occasionally, make breathtakingly stupid mistakes. But it would seem to fall way down the ladder of probability.
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One would think they have someone whose job is specifically to understand the rules.

It would be truly remarkable from any GM but particularly from one that had done the job in two cities and also worked for the Dodgers.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I disagree. It isn't that no one knew about the rule, but more about not looking ahead and putting the salaries together. I work on a lot of projects with a lot of smart people and things are overlooked all the time. not because we didn't understand the banking regulation, but because we were in the weeds of the moment and not stepping back to look from 35,000 feet above to see the simple ripple effects. It is not inconcievable to see something like that happening when they were in the middle of a penant race and dealing with trades/extentions/roster moves/accounting and all the other things a pres of ops has to be over.
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It would be staggeringly incompetent for a front office to not consider what effect extensions would have on the payroll and cap rules.

**** happens but it would be a real shocker.
 
I suspect that the fact that we are not privy to what AA is thinking does not mean that he has screwed up, or doesn't understand the rules.

Things don't always go as planned, but to suggest that they don't know the rules is just silly.
 
Heyward said:
He'd be going into his age 29 season of year 1 of the deal. It's not like he's 33 right now. The contract would be his age 29 to 34 age seasons if it's 6 years. His defense would probably start to slip some, but would depend if this year and last year are a trend or not. The last year or 2 might be bad, but all free agent deals that long have risks of guys entering their 30's.

I dont think 6 for Dansby would be as bad as everyone thinks.
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He's only been above average so far as an offensive player. If his defense slips at all, he isn't going to be a very good player. And if his offense falls to career averages to go along with declining defense, he's not going to be someone you want starting on your team.
 
Enscheff said:
For the same reason JS was forced to trade Millwood due to not understanding the rules.

If we assume they will not go over the cap (reasonable), and we know they need a SS that will almost certainly be expensive, and we know they have very little cap space remaining to afford an expensive SS....

Like I said, the FO screwing up isn't inconceivable.

There are other possibilities, such as blowing past the cap, or somehow unloading salary, or going with internal options, but "they messed up" is also an explanation. I'm not sure why folks can't admit it.
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JS understood the rules. I think you are misremembering.
 
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