Official official offseason thread

The braves are a playoff team this year, and 2019 nats, 2021 braves and 2022 Phillies proved you just need to get in. Anything can happen then
 
msstate7 said:
I'm fine with the extensions... the braves should have many more years of good baseball.
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Of course you’re fine with them. The players were good last year, and that makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside. What happens when Riley turns into Dan Uggla and Olson turns into a 1 win 1b? How in love will you be if those things happen?

The Braves have almost zero flexibility to pivot away from these players. Teams typically pivot away from players who decline unexpectedly during the arb years, and then reallocate that cash elsewhere. We are seeing the effects of this inflexibility already with horrid projected production at LF and DH, and these core players are still good. Imagine if/when a few of them aren’t.
 
Enscheff said:
Of course you’re fine with them. The players were good last year, and that makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside. What happens when Riley turns into Dan Uggla and Olson turns into a 1 win 1b? How in love will you be if those things happen?

The Braves have almost zero flexibility to pivot away from these players. Teams typically pivot away from players who decline unexpectedly during the arb years, and then reallocate that cash elsewhere. We are seeing the effects of this inflexibility already with horrid projected production at LF and DH, and these core players are still good. Imagine if/when a few of them aren’t.
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I'd hate the outcome, but I still wouldn't disagree with the move. Crap happens
 
NYCBrave said:
I agree with everything you're saying, including the numerous mis-steps that AA has made. I'll just say this. While the extensions do not come without risk, I think we have to acknowledge it allows us to keep the majority of our core long term and even extend the contention window beyond the originally thought time frame. Would be impossible to achieve the same with the payroll limitations shopping majority through free agency.
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I can only think of 2 teams who have locked up a core to anything resembling this extent: the 90s Indians and the early 2000s Phillies. I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to research how those tales went, especially at the tail end.
 
Enscheff said:
I can only think of 2 teams who have locked up a core to anything resembling this extent: the 90s Indians and the early 2000s Phillies. I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to research how those tales went, especially at the tail end.
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I don't remember you being so anti-extension. When did you flip the switch?
 
msstate7 said:
I don't remember you being so anti-extension. When did you flip the switch?
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I’ve been mentioning the massive risk the Braves were taking with these extensions the day they were signed. You can go back into the threads and review. Nobody cared because everyone was too busy being excited and patting each other on the back over how long these players were now signed…as if that’s always a good thing.

The extensions as a whole are probably a net positive. The Albies and Acuna deals are almost certainly slam dunk wins. All I’m saying is we can’t forget the risk and loss of flexibility the Braves took on when they signed those deals.

We are already seeing the downside to those extensions this very moment, and the players haven’t even started to decline yet. Had AA not signed any extensions he’d probably have the cap room to meaningfully improve the roster right now. That’s the downside in year 1…imagine the downsides in year 5.
 
Chico said:
Strider will be paid $6M over the next 3 years but carry a luxury tax of $12.5M per year. That’s crazy
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Precisely.

However, at some point that will flip and the cap number will be less than the actual number. At that point AA should have cap room to spend…if they still have real cash to spend.
 
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Enscheff said:
Of course you’re fine with them. The players were good last year, and that makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside. What happens when Riley turns into Dan Uggla and Olson turns into a 1 win 1b? How in love will you be if those things happen?

The Braves have almost zero flexibility to pivot away from these players. Teams typically pivot away from players who decline unexpectedly during the arb years, and then reallocate that cash elsewhere. We are seeing the effects of this inflexibility already with horrid projected production at LF and DH, and these core players are still good. Imagine if/when a few of them aren’t.
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What’s the alternative to these extensions?

We could sign more free agents and those same type of risks exist, and at a higher price.

We could trade Riley and Olson (the Rays model). But that simply doesn’t make sense when you can support a $200m payroll.

Given the increase in $ per war this off-season, locking in great players at yesterday’s prices are slam dunk wins. Of course, that doesn’t mean there isn’t any risk, but alternatives and context matters.
 
Enscheff said:
We are already seeing the downside to those extensions this very moment, and the players haven’t even started to decline yet. Had AA not signed any extensions he’d probably have the cap room to meaningfully improve the roster right now. That’s the downside in year 1…imagine the downsides in year 5.
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Isn't some of the point of the extensions to increase the player's pay during pre arb and some arb years and save the team from huge salary seasons during a prime free agent time (as well as later arb seasons)?

Shouldn't this workout to be robbing Peter now to pay Paul later?

And if so, that's doesn't necessarily make it the right move. As you've said, if we miss, we tie up salary during the competition window. HOWEVER... if these guys hit, it allows the window to be extended, correct?
 
chop2chip said:
What’s the alternative to these extensions?

We could sign more free agents and those same type of risks exist, and at a higher price.

We could trade Riley and Olson (the Rays model). But that simply doesn’t make sense when you can support a $200m payroll.

Given the increase in $ per war this off-season, locking in great players at yesterday’s prices are slam dunk wins. Of course, that doesn’t mean there isn’t any risk, but alternatives and context matters.
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The alternative is to dump decliners during arb to free up cash, and continue to supplement with short term FAs and trades. It’s not easy, and that’s why teams have contention windows and rebuilds. Truly elite GMs can navigate these transitions well and make teams consistent contenders.

AA has traded flexibility in exchange for potentially extending the contention window 2-3 years. Trading away that flexibility also increased the volatility of the potential outcomes since he can’t pivot away from the primary plan of “the core”.

The upside is the core ages well and the Braves compete for many titles. The downside is the core ages poorly and the Braves are stuck with them for many years. There is no way to pivot and change plans. That flexibility is gone, as we are seeing right now…in year 1.
 
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Enscheff said:
Precisely.

However, at some point that will flip and the cap number will be less than the actual number. At that point AA should have cap room to spend…if they still have real cash to spend.
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Yeah, we’ll start seeing that this season with Acuna paying him $17M with a luxury tax hit of $12.5M for the next 4 years
 
Enscheff said:
The alternative is to dump decliners during arb to free up cash, and continue to supplement with short term FAs and trades. It’s not easy, and that’s why teams have contention windows and rebuilds. Truly elite GMs can navigate these transitions well and make teams consistent contenders.

AA has traded flexibility in exchange for potentially extending the contention window 2-3 years. Trading away that flexibility also increased the volatility of the potential outcomes since he can’t pivot away from the primary plan of “the core”.

The upside is the core ages well and the Braves compete for many titles. The downside is the core ages poorly and the Braves are stuck with them for many years. There is no way to pivot and change plans. That flexibility is gone, as we are seeing right now…in year 1.
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Flexibility still exists to pivot. AA can trade any of those extended players at any time if he needs to reshape the roster. Cost controlled young players are the most valuable commodity in baseball.

The better alternative I guess would be if the Braves had a strong farm they could use that to replace players as they approached free agency. But that hasn’t been realistic the last few years (even prior to the Olson trade).
 
chop2chip said:
Flexibility still exists to pivot. AA can trade any of those extended players at any time if he needs to reshape the roster. Cost controlled young players are the most valuable commodity in baseball.

The better alternative I guess would be if the Braves had a strong farm they could use that to replace players as they approached free agency. But that hasn’t been realistic the last few years (even prior to the Olson trade).
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AA isn’t going to be trading early decliners because nobody will take them. He could just dump them if they were under arb control and reallocate that cash. That’s the main benefit of the arb process…player control with zero team risk. That’s why owners love it so much. AA gave up that major benefit.

Good or bad, this is the Braves roster for the 2020s. There is no way to meaningfully change it if these guys flop.
 
Enscheff said:
AA isn’t going to be trading early decliners because nobody will take them. He could just dump them if they were under arb control and reallocate that cash. That’s the main benefit of the arb process…player control with zero team risk. That’s why owners love it so much. AA gave up that major benefit.

Good or bad, this is the Braves roster for the 2020s. There is no way to meaningfully change it if these guys flop.
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I didn’t say trade early decliners.
 
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