Official official offseason thread

50PoundHead said:
I don't know Strider's arbitration status and whether he'd a be a Super-2 after the 2023 season, but I would have waited a year on both Strider and Harris before extending.

On Riley and Olson, I think both of those guys may hit the decline button (and perhaps markedly so) midway through their deals. Granted, the low on-going salaries may allow them to be dumped without having to either send money or attach prospects. The thing with both of them is that their power numbers shouldn't completely collapse, but Riley is probably two or three seasons away from full-time DHing.

As some have said, we are painted into a bit of a corner. Team is pretty good if they stay healthy, but there's not much wiggle room (or at least there doesn't appear to be).
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Strider had all of 2 1/3 innings in 2021. He wouldn't have gone to arbitration until after 2024.

Harris was a brilliant extension imo. At the time he signed his deal he was set to hit free agency after 2028. However that would have gotten bumped to 2027 after he won ROY. Have to think had we waited his price would of gone up. ROY under his belt and a year closer to FA.
 
cajunrevenge said:
With the way contracts are inflating Strider and Harris would have to be really bad and/or injured to not be worth their contracts.
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Of all the extensions, Harris might be the safest bet due to his defense, although his inability to hit LHP at this point is problematic. I worry about Strider's durability.
 
thewupk said:
Strider had all of 2 1/3 innings in 2021. He wouldn't have gone to arbitration until after 2024.

Harris was a brilliant extension imo. At the time he signed his deal he was set to hit free agency after 2028. However that would have gotten bumped to 2027 after he won ROY. Have to think had we waited his price would of gone up. ROY under his belt and a year closer to FA.
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Thanks for the clarifications. Was totally unaware of the ROY angle on free agency.
 
50PoundHead said:
Thanks for the clarifications. Was totally unaware of the ROY angle on free agency.
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Yeah it's a new wrinkle that's been added. If your on 2 top 100 lists from ESPN, mlb.com, or baseball america and finish top 2 in ROY you get a full year of service no matter when your called up.
 
If for some reason the Mets decide to back out on Correa, I think they’ll trade for Reynolds and somehow keep Baty out of the deal. They’ll also get Hendriks and maybe Bauer.
 
Kind of makes sense now why the Astros weren’t especially motivated to extend Correa.

Yes they had Pena in AAA. But, when you are a contender it’s hard to let a star leave and replace them with an unknown.
 
50PoundHead said:
I don't know Strider's arbitration status and whether he'd a be a Super-2 after the 2023 season, but I would have waited a year on both Strider and Harris before extending.

On Riley and Olson, I think both of those guys may hit the decline button (and perhaps markedly so) midway through their deals. Granted, the low on-going salaries may allow them to be dumped without having to either send money or attach prospects. The thing with both of them is that their power numbers shouldn't completely collapse, but Riley is probably two or three seasons away from full-time DHing.

As some have said, we are painted into a bit of a corner. Team is pretty good if they stay healthy, but there's not much wiggle room (or at least there doesn't appear to be).
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It’s interesting that Strider’s contract initially seemed much player friendly than most of the contracts we had handed out so far. With the added context of this winter’s free agency, it appears that inflation must have been baked into the offer.
 
Chico said:
Ozuna and Rosario are big mistakes.

My hope is that AA saw it was going to be a silly FA market and chose to dole out extensions increasing the luxury tax salary payroll, so he had an excuse for not overpaying in this market. The extensions no doubt are worth it, but short term painful.
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I'm not sure they are really.

There is an assumption they completely suck but Rosario was hurt and Ozuna has a lot going on and pretty sure his xwoba is respectable for DH position which isn't as deep as people think.

Very possibly a mistake though. It happens.

Ozuna is exactly the sort of spend on free agent play that we should be regretting not being able to do?
 
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Enscheff said:
Something doesn’t have to be a mistake to be at fault. The extensions are probably net positives (still open for debate taking on all that risk and restricting flexibility), but those moves are 100% the cause for the luxury cap number being so high. And AA is 100% at fault for those extensions, good or bad.

Folks love to applaud the extensions, but they forget about the massive risk the Braves just took on leashing themselves to this core. We are already seeing how little flexibility AA will have this decade to attune the roster, and this inflexibility is now locked in for many years.

This core IS the Braves for the foreseeable future, win or lose, continued success or unexpected decline. There is very little money to pivot from the contracts AA has shackled to this franchise. No option to drop players during arb years. No option to send players down to save service time. We are seeing the results of that reality already…right now.
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"Shackled"
 
CJC said:
Isn't some of the point of the extensions to increase the player's pay during pre arb and some arb years and save the team from huge salary seasons during a prime free agent time (as well as later arb seasons)?

Shouldn't this workout to be robbing Peter now to pay Paul later?

And if so, that's doesn't necessarily make it the right move. As you've said, if we miss, we tie up salary during the competition window. HOWEVER... if these guys hit, it allows the window to be extended, correct?
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Yea, they could have signed players to long term, absurd, market rate deals that he would also complain about.

Which would be more "shackling" than what the Braves have now.

We're now talking very obvious risks that existed and were accepted at the time that he didn't actually paint as "horrid" or "shackling" then. . And that are in reality neither horrid nor shackling.

The Braves never play in this kind of market and it doesn't have much to do with extensions.

Maybe a little to Ozuna but I'm willing to bet they'd have taken a big swing this off-season if they liked the look of it.

They're not trying to have an all star team at every position. If that's what you want out of ownership go pull for Padres, Mets or Dodgers. It's not gonna happen here.
 
I said this in an earlier post but AA might have actually seen the FA market doing this before we did. Which is why he decided to push his chips all in on extending this core. Sure it is loaded with risk but the cheapest way to build.

My only problem is the trades then. Why give up controlled, younger players for a one year reliever and a catcher with possible regression flags Imo. I just don’t get his direction this off season. I guess the simpletons will now accuse me of wanting us to win the offseason.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I said this in an earlier post but AA might have actually seen the FA market doing this before we did. Which is why he decided to push his chips all in on extending this core. Sure it is loaded with risk but the cheapest way to build.

My only problem is the trades then. Why give up controlled, younger players for a one year reliever and a catcher with possible regression flags Imo. I just don’t get his direction this off season. I guess the simpletons will now accuse me of wanting us to win the offseason.
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I think it's obvious AA saw TDA and Contreras as really overachieving last season. We'll find out if he's right or wrong
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I said this in an earlier post but AA might have actually seen the FA market doing this before we did. Which is why he decided to push his chips all in on extending this core. Sure it is loaded with risk but the cheapest way to build.

My only problem is the trades then. Why give up controlled, younger players for a one year reliever and a catcher with possible regression flags Imo. I just don’t get his direction this off season. I guess the simpletons will now accuse me of wanting us to win the offseason.
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what are these regression flags again?

there is truly no reason to complain about trading justin henry malloy. justin. henry. malloy. he’s not that valuable and overwhelming chances are he won’t be any good.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm not sure they are really.

There is an assumption they completely suck but Rosario was hurt and Ozuna has a lot going on and pretty sure his xwoba is respectable for DH position which isn't as deep as people think.

Very possibly a mistake though. It happens.

Ozuna is exactly the sort of spend on free agent play that we should be regretting not being able to do?
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Umm, no. Ozuna was a bat-only player the day AA signed him. We have been saying for years, “don’t sign bat-only players into their 30s”, and then AA gave Ozuna 4 years. It was a questionable deal the moment it was signed. At least someone like Conforto can maybe play decent defense…Ozuna is a known 0.
 
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