Some interesting position players from the 2022 draft (Alvarez, Baldwin, McCabe) and a few of the later position picks in the OF (Kilpatrick, Williams, Jackson) that might have some buzz, but for the most part, it'll be the pitchers from the 2022 draft (Murphy, Ritchie, Phillips, Maier, Keller, Burkhalter) and a couple of pitchers from the 2021 draft (Smith-Shawver and Shoemaker) that have the greatest chance of moving the needle significantly upwards.
Not much in terms of ceiling on the holdover guys from earlier drafts and signings. Shuster is at the top of the list of likely contributors in 2023, followed by Vodnik and Vines. If Shewmake hits, he could prove valuable if the big league SS experiment with Grissom and Arcia is found to be wanting. A solid return for Franklin would be a plus. The best of the remaining guys look to be utility IFs (Quintero, Conley, Waddell, Milligan) and a sleeper catching prospect in Tolve. OF Tyler Collins missed most of the 2022 season with an injury and he's another guy to watch. I think it's a make-or-break season for guys like Mezquita, Morton, Paolini, and Backstrom, who have all shown something, but not consistently. Our most notable signings from the last couple of international groups (Tavarez, Glod, Benitez) all underperformed in terms of their surface stats, but it's really difficult to make a solid judgment from performance--good or bad--in the short-season leagues.
Can't stress enough how the international sanctions hurt the Braves. Bae and Soto are now in the major leagues and I wouldn't be surprised if Severino joins them in 2023.
PS--Forgot to add LHP Dylan Dodd, who could be in the mix for the back end of the rotation at some point in the near future.
PPS--RHP Schwellenbach also someone to watch coming off Tommy John surgery.
Alvarez is probably the position player I'm most excited to see in 2023, at least from the 2022 draft—he looks like he could be a real gem, if some of the things he showed his brief professional career (51 PA at CPX, 71 PA at Low-A) can be sustained going forward. Namely, he showed really great strike-zone judgment (13.7% bb / 11.8% k at CPX; insane 26.8% bb / 12.7% k in Low-A); while his defense at 3B was reportedly better-than-advertised at draft-time, enough so that he might be able to handle SS. And this all occurred at age-19, since he was young for a college draftee, coming from the JUCO ranks. He's a guy I think could increase in perceived value quite quickly, if that performance is more real than small-sample mirage.
It'd be nice if just one of the toolsy OFs could make a big jump (Morton, Collins, Williams, Jackson, Kilpatrick—while I've pretty much given up on Paolini); more than one would be gravy. Ditto the Tavarez, Glod, Benitez trio—just one big jump there would be phenomenal. With Glod and Benitez, they showed good BB and K rates, but not much else, in their first year stateside; meanwhile, Tavarez is in the Collins boat, where we haven't really been able to see him due to injury issues. But there's been some good video of Tavarez's winter-league work this offseason, so I'm excited to see if he can hit the ground running in 2023 and cash in some of his promise.
I don't have much faith in any of that Quintero/Conley/Waddell/Milligan quartet. I like Milligan more than I should, just because he has that boatload-of-walks offensive profile, but his ceiling is most likely defensively-limited bench option (2B/OF); though, if everything broke he could maybe play himself into a fringe starter at 2B for a team that doesn't have a firmly-entrenched, highly-charismatic All Star 2B. After him, there's Conley, who at least made strides in adapting his power to the wooden bat during the 2022 season—and looked pretty solid to me when I saw him in the AZ Fall League. Neither Quintero nor Waddell do much for me, though Fangraphs likes the former a lot more than many outlets.
But pitching is the strength of the system, currently—and given the MLB roster construction, it's not the worst to have a bunch of high-floor, back-end types at AAA (even after trading off Muller and Tarnok), while likewise seeing a lot of higher-ceiling, slower-moving guys populating Low- and High-A. I just wish there looked to be
any hitter with a pulse above A-ball (with a healthy Franklin being the possible exception), given that—as I said above—it currently appears the Braves would be hard-pressed to weather injuries at the MLB corners with even a half-competent step-in option. This is especially true for the infield corners. In the OF, it obviously it doesn't help matters that the guy currently ticketed for the most PAs in LF is projected to be sub-replacement; but at least there they're going to see what sticks with Luplow, Hilliard, and Pillar.
