2023 MLB Draft Thread

cajunrevenge said:
I don't know much about Shuster. I was thinking about picks like Gilmartin, Hursh, and Shewmake.
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Gilmartin and Hursh were the previous regime.

Shewmake had plenty of projection in his bat at the time. Scouts felt he was an advanced hitter with good on base skills and decent power projection. The issue was that most felt he wouldn't be a SS long term and was too big for 2B, which basically left 3b or learning an OF spot. And obviously his offensive profile was not very impressive if he couldn't play up the middle. It turns out, the opposite was true. He's a solid defensive SS but his offensive skills have been pretty atrocious.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I don't know much about Shuster. I was thinking about picks like Gilmartin, Hursh, and Shewmake.
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At the time Hursh was not really a low ceiling prospect. His high velo sinker was one of the best pitches in the draft by one prospect outlet. He was also up to 98 at times.
 
Yeah as I’ve said 100 times on here, we don’t know anything about these draft prospects and reading readily available scouting reports doesn’t really tell us much about what teams see. The consensus on scouting reports can be “low ceiling” but that may not be true, and pretending we know about these player’s skills by reading baseball america is dumb and makes people look stupid every single year. It’s of course fun to talk about and see who’s mocked to atlanta and all that, but the certainty with which some talk about freshly drafted guys is silly and tiring.
 
Super said:
Yeah as I’ve said 100 times on here, we don’t know anything about these draft prospects and reading readily available scouting reports doesn’t really tell us much about what teams see. The consensus on scouting reports can be “low ceiling” but that may not be true, and pretending we know about these player’s skills by reading baseball america is dumb and makes people look stupid every single year. It’s of course fun to talk about and see who’s mocked to atlanta and all that, but the certainty with which some talk about freshly drafted guys is silly and tiring.
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I believe it was Kiley McDaniel that said that outside the top 10 guys in the class, there’s not really that big of a difference in talent from someone drafted in the late first versus someone in the third round. Thats certainly been true for the Braves the last few years.
 
Carp said:
Gilmartin and Hursh were the previous regime.

Shewmake had plenty of projection in his bat at the time. Scouts felt he was an advanced hitter with good on base skills and decent power projection. The issue was that most felt he wouldn't be a SS long term and was too big for 2B, which basically left 3b or learning an OF spot. And obviously his offensive profile was not very impressive if he couldn't play up the middle. It turns out, the opposite was true. He's a solid defensive SS but his offensive skills have been pretty atrocious.
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Any scouts who saw Shewmake play and thought he would be a MLB hitter should be fired if they haven't been already.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Any scouts who saw Shewmake play and thought he would be a MLB hitter should be fired if they haven't been already.
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😂😂😂. Agreed. I never got power projection from watching him, but I did think he'd be a much more serviceable hitter. Don't remember the hitting coordinator(s) from years ago....but altering his swing several times surely didn't help.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Any scouts who saw Shewmake play and thought he would be a MLB hitter should be fired if they haven't been already.
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I mean he walked nearly as much as he struck out his final 2 years of college, so there definitely was some projection there. A 9% BB rate and K rate in a strong conference is definitely indicative of a hitter with an advanced feel for hitting. Once he got the minors though, his BB rate dropped significantly and his K rate doubled.
 
Carp said:
I mean he walked nearly as much as he struck out his final 2 years of college, so there definitely was some projection there. A 9% BB rate and K rate in a strong conference is definitely indicative of a hitter with an advanced feel for hitting. Once he got the minors though, his BB rate dropped significantly and his K rate doubled.
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That's where the eye test comes into play. He just didn't look like a potential MLB hitter to me at all while he was at A&M. He had average to below average power in college, while playing at a park where the ball tends to fly pretty well. Average got worse every year, while OBP stayed fairly flat. Singles hitters in the SEC generally don't translate to MLB regulars, unless they're hitting close to .400 (if then).
 
Carp said:
Gilmartin and Hursh were the previous regime.

Shewmake had plenty of projection in his bat at the time. Scouts felt he was an advanced hitter with good on base skills and decent power projection. The issue was that most felt he wouldn't be a SS long term and was too big for 2B, which basically left 3b or learning an OF spot. And obviously his offensive profile was not very impressive if he couldn't play up the middle. It turns out, the opposite was true. He's a solid defensive SS but his offensive skills have been pretty atrocious.
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Two regimes ago for Gilmartin and Hursh. Wren's drafts look alright in retrospect, but a lot of his picks were high floor guys that the staff felt had a fairly high percentage of reaching their ceiling. Wren and DiMacio did fairly well when they picked college/JC guys in the first few rounds (Simmons, Ahmed, Minor), but didn't do very well when taking high school guys early. Hursh had experienced arm problems, but he was a riser after a solid junior season. Gilmartin actually put together one good season at the major league level with the Mets, but that pick was a head-scratcher to me because he was a pitchability guy that didn't seem to have plus stuff.

The draft isn't exactly a crapshoot, but there's a lot that goes into assessing both raw talent and the chance that talent will translate as it moves up the ladder. Some guys who look good have already topped out and some guys with great tools just can't turn the tools into useable baseball skills.
 
DirkPiggler said:
That's where the eye test comes into play. He just didn't look like a potential MLB hitter to me at all while he was at A&M. He had average to below average power in college, while playing at a park where the ball tends to fly pretty well. Average got worse every year, while OBP stayed fairly flat. Singles hitters in the SEC generally don't translate to MLB regulars, unless they're hitting close to .400 (if then).
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Yeah, I think we saw his 6'3 frame and dreamed on him filling out and adding some pop to go along with what seemed like well rounded hitting tools. To his credit, he has developed a decent bit of pop, but everything looks it was a mirage.
 
Iirc there were reports of the Rays wanting Shewmake as well. I’m sure there was info we don’t have that led to more projection.

Did Strider look like a TOR starter in college? Not even a little bit.
 
Shewmake was just a complete whiff by the scouting department. He's basically the opposite of what he was expected to be. He was seen as a guy with a phenomenal hit tool giving him a very high floor but someone who would probably not stick at SS as he added weight.

Instead he's a guy with a terrible hit tool who has added very little weight and has managed to stick at SS.

It happens. Fortunately we hit on a good many later picks.
 
I’m sure the Braves realized he could play SS. This is precisely where the “don’t think you know a player because you read a couple available scouting reports” comes in. The Braves likely had a different analysis of him than the scouting reports from BA…not sure how that can be declared a “whiff.”
 
striker42 said:
Shewmake was just a complete whiff by the scouting department. He's basically the opposite of what he was expected to be. He was seen as a guy with a phenomenal hit tool giving him a very high floor but someone who would probably not stick at SS as he added weight.

Instead he's a guy with a terrible hit tool who has added very little weight and has managed to stick at SS.

It happens. Fortunately we hit on a good many later picks.
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The thing with high school guys is you don't know if they will hit the ceiling that their tools portend. The thing with college guys is you don't know if what you are seeing is their ceiling. A lot can happen for a guy between his late-teens and early-20s in terms of physical development, but sometimes what you see is what you get. Again, not a crap shoot, but teams have to look at levels of competition, stage of physical development, and even attitude plays into it. It's a marginally exact science due to the wide variation of inputs.

In Shewmake's case, the Braves thought he would either fill out more and develop some power to go with further physical development or they thought he would hit enough to play SS. He doesn't appear to have gotten any bigger and his power numbers still aren't there, but if he shows he can play reasonable SS and hit at least some, he can still probably carve out a bit of a career.
 
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50PoundHead said:
The thing with high school guys is you don't know if they will hit the ceiling that their tools portend. The thing with college guys is you don't know if what you are seeing is their ceiling. A lot can happen for a guy between his late-teens and early-20s in terms of physical development, but sometimes what you see is what you get. Again, not a crap shoot, but teams have to look at levels of competition, stage of physical development, and even attitude plays into it. It's a marginally exact science due to the wide variation of inputs.

In Shewmake's case, the Braves thought he would either fill out more and develop some power to go with further physical development or they thought he would hit enough to play SS. He doesn't appear to have gotten any bigger and his power numbers still aren't there, but if he shows he can play reasonable SS and hit at least some, he can still probably carve out a bit of a career.
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He’d shown pretty good power potential as a freshman, so I assume they thought his defense would play at ss, and that they could unlock the power.
 
Personally I prefer younger prospects. Especially if there is a lot of projection involved. I also think a teams developmental system matters a lot. Some players just need the right coaches at the right time.
 
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