GDT: Braves @ Guardians 07/05

bravesfanforlife88 said:
If Scherzer/Verlander return to form, it's not out of the question for that to happen. The central division is super weak. Currently 2 of the 3 WC spots are held by NL east teams with the Dodgers being the other.
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I agree with thewupk.. just too many teams to jump.. anything could happen of course, but chasing down 1 team ahead of you at 10 games back is easier than chasing down 5 teams ahead of you at 6.5 games back.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
This team doesn't have a 2 hole hitter on the current roster. But I do like Ozzie being in that role right now even if he is not a good OBP guy. The only move I would like to see now is move Murphy to the 3-hole and Ozuna to 5th and Riley to 6th. I could live with Riley and Murph swapping spots if the other is a bit too much for Twit to handle all at once.
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Braves should bat Acuna, Murphy, and Olson 1-3 since they are the top 3 in OPS in the NL.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I agree with thewupk.. just too many teams to jump.. anything could happen of course, but chasing down 1 team ahead of you at 10 games back is easier than chasing down 5 teams ahead of you at 6.5 games back.
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I really doubt 90 wins is needed. Phils made it with 87 last year. How often do 6 teams in the same league win 90 games or more?

All it takes is 2 hot weeks to get back into the playoffs race. Mets will have that chance after the Break. After the Dodgers series they go: ChiSox, BoSox, Yanks, Nats, and Royals. The opportunity is certainly there for them to go 12-6 or better over that stretch.
 
just to put into context how hard the Mets have it to even make the last wild card slot, here is how every wild card contending team has to play the remaining games to make it to the 87 win mark (last years wild card lowest win total)

Miami would have to play at a 49% pace which is about 78.8 winning over 162
Dodger$ would have to play at a 51% which is 83.13
Faillies ata 53% for a 86.26 pace
giants at a 53% for a 86.4 pace

all those teams are currently playing at or above what they need to play at to get to 87 wins.. the rest of these are not...

brewers need a 55% clip for 88.56 win pace
friar$ need to play at 61% clip for 99.36 wins pace
chicago swansons will need to play at a 61% as well or 98.88 wins pace
Mutt$ will need to play at a 62% winning pace or 100.18 wins over 162 games for the remainder of their 76 games.
peg legs are exactly the same as the Mutt$.

That is a pretty tall order to fill when right now you are winning at a 47% clip.
 
Carp said:
I really doubt 90 wins is needed. Phils made it with 87 last year. How often do 6 teams in the same league win 90 games or more?

All it takes is 2 hot weeks to get back into the playoffs race. Mets will have that chance after the Break. After the Dodgers series they go: ChiSox, BoSox, Yanks, Nats, and Royals. The opportunity is certainly there for them to go 12-6 or better over that stretch.
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It isn't just about what the Mutts will do.. if just the top 4 teams play at their current winning percentage, then they will all have 88 wins or more. That is on top of the Mutts playing at a 100 win pace. Just don't see that happening.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
just to put into context how hard the Mets have it to even make the last wild card slot, here is how every wild card contending team has to play the remaining games to make it to the 87 win mark (last years wild card lowest win total)

Miami would have to play at a 49% pace which is about 78.8 winning over 162
Dodger$ would have to play at a 51% which is 83.13
Faillies ata 53% for a 86.26 pace
giants at a 53% for a 86.4 pace

all those teams are currently playing at or above what they need to play at to get to 87 wins.. the rest of these are not...

brewers need a 55% clip for 88.56 win pace
friar$ need to play at 61% clip for 99.36 wins pace
chicago swansons will need to play at a 61% as well or 98.88 wins pace
Mutt$ will need to play at a 62% winning pace or 100.18 wins over 162 games for the remainder of their 76 games.
peg legs are exactly the same as the Mutt$.

That is a pretty tall order to fill when right now you are winning at a 47% clip.
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I'm not saying it's likely, or that I expect it at all. Just pointing out that Verlander and Scherzer have vastly underperformed expectations. If they were to get back into previous form (again unlikely, imo) then they are definitely capable of wining 60% of their remaining games.
 
Carp said:
I'm not saying it's likely, or that I expect it at all. Just pointing out that Verlander and Scherzer have vastly underperformed expectations. If they were to get back into previous form (again unlikely, imo) then they are definitely capable of wining 60% of their remaining games.
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If they are within 5 games of so of getting into the playoffs, I could definitely see them use their farm system to add. If they added Snell/Hader from SD, they are definitely more formidable. Their pitching would keep them in a lot more games.
 
Carp said:
I'm not saying it's likely, or that I expect it at all. Just pointing out that Verlander and Scherzer have vastly underperformed expectations. If they were to get back into previous form (again unlikely, imo) then they are definitely capable of wining 60% of their remaining games.
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Meh. Mets pitching is god awful. Only the Rockies and A's have been worse so far. So Max and Justin rebounding to form won't be enough. Their offense is average and their defense sucks. They are just a bad team. It's going to take a lot of people playing better to turn the team around.
 
thewupk said:
Meh. Mets pitching is god awful. Only the Rockies and A's have been worse so far. So Max and Justin rebounding to form won't be enough. Their offense is average and their defense sucks. They are just a bad team. It's going to take a lot of people playing better to turn the team around.
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Yea. I mean Carp is right that the Mets still have a chance just like 20 other teams have a chance. But based on the quality of the roster I don’t think they are especially likely to leap frog 7 teams in the standing.
 
I wouldnt put it likely the Mets get in, but they do have some favorable games after the break. They do need a big week or two of going like 8-2/9-1 to really gain some ground. Dont have a ton of margin for error. JV and Max pitching like they're supposed to will help make a big run. I dont think they'd need 90 to get in, do agree i think 86-88 or so gets a WC spot.
 
Carp said:
I really doubt 90 wins is needed. Phils made it with 87 last year. How often do 6 teams in the same league win 90 games or more?

All it takes is 2 hot weeks to get back into the playoffs race. Mets will have that chance after the Break. After the Dodgers series they go: ChiSox, BoSox, Yanks, Nats, and Royals. The opportunity is certainly there for them to go 12-6 or better over that stretch.
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I agree, the Braves go: TB, ChiSox, DBacks Brewers, BoSox and Brewers again. Much tougher schedule. Mets could certainly make up ground there.
 
Mets aren't catching Atlanta. If anyone catches us, the Marlins are more likely. Only 3 head to head against them left. But they are shoving against every team not named the Braves. The Phillies have a shot as well, we still have 7 head to head games against us.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
Mets aren't catching Atlanta. If anyone catches us, the Marlins are more likely. Only 3 head to head against them left. But they are shoving against every team not named the Braves. The Phillies have a shot as well, we still have 7 head to head games against us.
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For what it's worth, Baseball Reference currently gives the Mets a less than 0.1% chance to win the division. And their playoffs odds are currently at 5.3%.
 
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