zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Trout doesn't get you the haul Shohei does. But he gets you a solid prospect from a big team.
Phillies I bet would trade someone like Rojas or Crawford for him. And it gets you a ton of cash to play with.
Official Around Baseball 2023 Thread
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Trout doesn't get you the haul Shohei does. But he gets you a solid prospect from a big team.
Phillies I bet would trade someone like Rojas or Crawford for him. And it gets you a ton of cash to play with.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Strider is a flyball pitcher, he has been unlucky and that happens sometimes, my bigger bone of contention is Snell IMO doesn't deserve it. I'd rather see Gallen or Webb get it.
WAR for position players doesn't have predictive stats in the formula
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Strider should win it.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
xFIP is an expected stat. FIP is literally what has happened if you remove balls in play from the equation. There’s a germane difference there.
striker42
Well-known member
It's not an expected stat in the way something like xBA is an expected stat. There's even an expected FIP.
It is still used as an expected stat though. It's used to estimate what your ERA would be with average luck, and better used to predict future performance. It most certainly is not a stat reflecting actual results.
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But it's still used that way. It's generally used as a stat to predict the future rather than measure a pitcher's current performance.
Look I enjoy advanced stats as much as anyone, but actual results matter. It doesn't matter if he was unlucky. Those runs he gave up happened.
Conversely, Pete Alsonso has the lowest BABIP in the league, despite hitting 45 homers with an average EV of 89.6. His BABIP is roughly 60 points below his career average. Might he have more homers and an OPS near 1.000 with better results on balls in play? Should we give him the MVP because he's been so unlucky on balls in play?
striker42
Well-known member
He wouldn't have more homers. More balls finding holes wouldn't send any over the fence.
I'm not saying base the entirety of the awards decisions on advanced stats. But advanced stats definitely need to be given a good deal of consideration. Strider has been SIGNIFICANTLY better than Blake Snell in almost every stat but ERA, a stat heavily impacted by luck. So if you vote for Snell over Strider, you're basically saying the Cy Young should go to the luckiest pitcher.
If the stats showed Snell was actually pitching close to Strider's level, I'd be fine with the award going to Snell. Actual results do matter. But how someone has actually been pitching outside of luck matters a lot too.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Okay… it may not explicitly be in the name but when you are adjusting based on external factors it is still not “what actually happened” which is the whole point. You may think Strider deserves it all day long. But I guarantee he’s not gonna to be given the award given he would have the highest ERA by far in history.
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
No I get it… it is still a stat based on hypotheticals rather than what actually happened though. I’m not saying I agree… but Strider isn’t getting a Cy Young when his ERA is closer to 4 than 3.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
For me, this sums it up.. I think you take the whole body of work and consider who is litterally the best pitcher. If you have to use some 'Lucky' stats to guide you, then that is fine. Elder at one point this year was like top 5 ERA.. but every person on this board (except thethe maybe) knew he was 3rd or 4th best pitcher just on this team... eventually the pixie dust faded and Elder is falling back to his #4/5 self.. but if he maintained that luck, does he get considered for the award???
I think Alonso has been robbed twice that I can recall, which is why I said that.
If Strider was remotely close in ERA, like even a 3.30 ERA, your argument would be valid. But his ERA is nearly a full 1.5 runs higher. There is no way to explain that away.
Yes. If Elder had the exact same peripherals but was still leading the league in ERA, he would absolutely win the CY Young, without question. And it's exactly the reason why he was selected for the All-Star team in the first place.
We don't award players for what they could/should have done. You award guys for their actual production.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I think Luck is doing too much heavy lifting here. FIP does nothing to account for quality of contact. We know there’s a relationship between exit velocity and runs. The sabermetric community has moved on from the argument that a pitcher has no control over quality of contact.
striker42
Well-known member
xERA is a statcast stat that, unless I'm mistaken, takes quality of contact into account. Strider and the Twins' Pablo Lopez have the lowest xERAs in baseball at 2.98. They're the only two under 3.00.
Blake Snell's xERA is at 3.75. Logan Webb is at 3.65.
Strider has pitched better than anyone else in the NL this year and it's not particularly close. He's just had absolutely wretched luck and poor fielding behind him.
I agree. He still won't win CY and I'm not sure that he should. Awards should be result based regardless if it's via luck or not imo.
striker42
Well-known member
That's a fair position. I lean more to wanting to give individual awards to the player whose individual play was the best. I want to divorce a player from the performance of the rest of his team and from the effect of luck as much as possible. See who was the best at doing the job that's being awarded.
My one exception is MVP. The standard there is "valuable" which implies importance to their team. So contribution to the team needs to be taken into account.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I think I’d give Strider the ball in Game 1 and Fried in Game 2 to give Max some extra time off. This sets up Spencer for a potential Game 4 and Max as the stopper in a winner-take-all. Plus, I like Strider as the backup Game 1 starter because I think he'll use his closer-like mentality to an advantage. He's baseball's ultimate strike-out guy (very literally). In the playoffs, swing-and-miss stuff is so important. I think he shoves.