Santana

I have little desire to re-sign Santana, even if he wins 20. He'll be 32 and looking for the last big FA contract of his career. I just don't see a fit. It's not that Atlanta doesn't have the money, but I think there are better ways to invest it.
 
I think Wren treats him like he does every other FA player. If he really wants to pitch in Atlanta he will not get top dollar. If he wants top dollar he will be pitching somewhere else. It's really that simple.

After the way this past offseason shook out for Santana with regards to being saddled with a draft pick penalty, he might think long and hard about trying to squeeze every last dollar out of the FA market. He may decide to be filthy rich playing in a place he enjoys rather going through all that stress again trying to become filthy stinking rich.

Medlen and Beachy are quite possibly done in Atlanta, so there is certainly room in the rotation for Santana long term.
 
nsacpi said:
The five pitchers who have the highest similarity scores to Santana through age 30 are: Brett Meyers, Pat Hentgen, Jaime Navarro, Alex Fernandez and Scott Erickson. I think a good starting point for any analysis of what Santana might be worth would be to look at how those pitchers did from age 32 onward.
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Good point, but I think Santana is a different pitcher than those guys. I don't think he's an ace, but like thethe said, he's a proven innings eater. I don't know what that is worth. It wouldn't have been worth $14 million if the Braves wouldn't have had the extreme need because of Medlen's injury. I'm curious where Santana would have ended up had that not happened and what his contract would have looked like.

Erickson was a total flake who fell off after umps figured out that most of the crap he threw up there wasn't a strike. I've never seen a pitcher given such a generous strike zone as that which was accorded Erickson in 1991 and he still walked 3 guys a game.
 
A lot of guys are innings eaters until they stop being innings eaters.

Santana is probably better than the guys with high similarity scores to him. That would be my guess. But he is not an elite pitcher. He might have a career year this year and look like one. But we have to be careful not to pay him based on a career best season.
 
I hope Santana pitches great, wins 20 and that we offer him arbitration and get our draft pick back. That would be ideal, IMO. I also wouldn't mind him accepting arbitration for another one year deal in that case or similar. But I hardly expect that to happen.

I also don't see it being in our best interest to sign him to the long term deal he's likely to demand.
 
gilesfan said:
2 starts and we are talking about him winning 20 games this year?
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See, everyone was having a polite discussion albeit with some disagreements, and then you come in with your usual condescending tone, despite the fact that you have no room to speak in such a way, being who you are.
The only people who should pride themselves on being pricks should at least be intelligent. If you're a prick-moron...bad look.
 
The odd thing is no one said he was going to win 20. Hawk said he didn't want to sign him even if he wins 20. It is twisting things quite a bit to say that we are talking about him winning 20 just based on that comment.
 
nsacpi said:
The odd thing is no one said he was going to win 20. Hawk said he didn't want to sign him even if he wins 20. It is twisting things quite a bit to say that we are talking about him winning 20 just based on that comment.
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Some people gotta make themselves feel better by any means.
 
thethe said:
You think this is resembles that situation?
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I think 2 starts ago the vast majority of people here wouod have been mortified at the prospect of signing Santana long term. Santana isn't likely to take less than 15 million per year on any long term deal unless he regresses back to 2012 form.
 
thethe said:
I'd sign Santana for four more years. I wouldn't do more than 13-15 per year. Just have to hope that the farm produces some hitters because one of Jason/Justin are gone.
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A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.
 
cajunrevenge said:
I think 2 starts ago the vast majority of people here wouod have been mortified at the prospect of signing Santana long term. Santana isn't likely to take less than 15 million per year on any long term deal unless he regresses back to 2012 form.
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There are some around here who go overboard based on 2 starts or 10 at bats.
 
gilesfan said:
A 32 year old with a career 4.16 ERA/4.34 FIP.

At his absolute career year, he's not worth 15 million per year.
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But it's not what he's worth. It's what he is going to get paid. In today's pitching market, those are two entirely different things.
 
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