Economics Thread

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jones-a...l-donald-trump-1ecc36ec?mod=opinion_lead_pos2

President Trump has temporarily called off America’s legal blockade of its own ports, and the White House says the results are positive. Under the 1920 Jones Act, waterborne cargo between two U.S. points must travel on ships that are built, crewed, and owned by Americans. Because that constricts supply and raises costs, Mr. Trump waived the law after attacking Iran.

So far, about two dozen waiver voyages have been reported complete as of April 30, according to the Maritime Administration. A ship flying the Singapore flag took 322,000 barrels of gasoline blend stock from Texas to California. A Maltese-flagged tanker brought 300,000 barrels of Bakken crude oil from Texas to a refinery in Pennsylvania. A second Singaporean vessel carried 300,000 barrels of gasoline from Louisiana to Florida. Useful commerce, amid Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Mr. Trump’s initial suspension of the Jones Act was for 60 days, but late last month he extended that for another 90 days, with the White House calling it a great success. “New data compiled since the initial waiver was issued revealed that significantly more supply was able to reach U.S. ports faster,” a spokeswoman said. “This extension will help ensure vital energy products, industrial materials, and agricultural necessities are maintained.”

Funny, it also sounds like a good argument for permanent Jones Act relief.

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Please just take the win
 
Change in non-farm payrolls from March 2025 to March 2026

California 145,000
Florida -22,000
New York -8,000
Texas 117,000
 
chop2chip said:
you’re telling me a state that’s heavily dependent on tourism and construction is experiencing volatility?
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florida is not a high volatility state when it comes to the unemployment rate

the 1.1% rise at a time when the national rate is little changed is atypical
 
Outside of the covid period, this sort of divergence between movements in the Florida unemployment rate and the national unemployment rate hasn't happened in over 15 years.
 
nsacpi said:
florida is not a high volatility state when it comes to the unemployment rate

the 1.1% rise at a time when the national rate is little changed is atypical
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Why wouldn’t Florida be relatively more volatile than other states? Its economy is heavily concentrated in industries that are cyclical, seasonal and sensitive to migration.

So when Covid happened, unemployment skyrocketed faster than the national average. Post Covid when they had a migration boom the unemployment rate was in the low 2’s.
 
chop2chip said:
Why wouldn’t Florida be relatively more volatile than other states? Its economy is heavily concentrated in industries that are cyclical, seasonal and sensitive to migration.

So when Covid happened, unemployment skyrocketed faster than the national average. Post Covid when they had a migration boom the unemployment rate was in the low 2’s.
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I'm just making an observation. It has a beta of less than one to the national unemployment rate for the period 1980 to present.

I suspect part of the reason is Floridians receive an unusually large portion of their incomes from transfer payments (Social Security) and employment (direct and indirect) by the federal government. Many red states are in this position btw. They feed bigly at the federal trough. Not that I have any moral objections to these transfers from wealthier blue states.
 
The two states with betas clearly above 1 are Nevada and Michigan. Nevada because it is the destination par excellence for people to go to when they feel good about their discretionary incomes. Michigan because it is tied to a highly cyclical manufacturing industry.

Like Nevada, Florida has a big tourism industry. But it is not as big a percentage of its economy and has less of a laissez-les-bon-temps-rouler aspect to it.
 
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