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Maybe. Maybe not. The thought experiment I keep running is what if Saddam and his top lieutenants were taken out but the next level of the Ba'ath Party apparatus remained in power. Something similar is happening in Venezuela. They are being compliant at the moment. But Cabello Rondon is...

George Soros is the finance arm of Antifa.

I would go with false flag. I'd rather my enemies be evil than incompetent.

An excellent use of the interactive dummy variable. I will use that example next time I teach econometrics and will be sure to credit you and thethe. I will add an intercept term, however, as my modest contribution for improving the fit. Hmm. On second thought I have a question. What is...

we will assimilate you...all resistance is futile

I'm glad you have the secret formula for figuring these thangs out.

Iran and Venezuela are interesting tests of certain doctrines. One is the notion of pre-emptive strikes. I don't think we were pre-empting anything imminent in either case. Where Venezuela and Iran cause a lot of harm is through the destabilization of entire regions by being bad actors in...

Both the U.S. and Israeli militaries observe the rules of war and try to minimize civilian casualties. This is a moral and legal obligation. We can criticize them and demand accountability and that they do better. But we should not expect perfection. For an interesting contrast, see what...

Minneapolis whupped ICE's sorry ass and y'all think going into LA is a good idea. I say bring it on.

Bring it on. Minneapolis says hi.

when do i get an invite to your group chat

If Anthropic is some sort of existential threat that's gonna open a can of worms for a lot of companies. All of the ones in the fossil fuel industry for example.

Yes, thousands of Iranians died in the recent protest. And undoubtedly more will.

They are not strong compared to the American and Israeli militaries. But they are strong enough to inflict a lot of harm on their civilian population.

I think it is pretty unclear how this is going to go. I can't think of any air campaign that has achieved regime change. If it does great, but I have some doubts. The regime in Iran lost the support of its people long ago and I hope they are able to replace it with something better.