09/09/18 GDT Braves (Toussaint) vs. D’Backs (Ray) I guess I have to do everything

[CyYoung31]

A cursory look over Camargo's numbers shows a bit of "luck".

Of the 12 regular and semi-regular players on the Braves roster, Camargo ranks as the 3rd most "lucky" batter in terms of xOBA-xwOBA:

1 Charlie Culberson 0.340 - 0.271 0.069
2 Preston Tucker 0.323 - 0.290 0.033
3 Johan Camargo 0.358 - 0.328 0.030
4 Ozzie Albies 0.330 - 0.314 0.016
5 Dansby Swanson 0.298 - 0.285 0.013
6 Ender Inciarte 0.303 - 0.298 0.005
7 Ronald Acuna Jr. 0.399 - 0.403 -0.004
8 Nick Markakis 0.356 - 0.369 -0.013
9 Ryan Flaherty 0.263 - 0.278 -0.015
10 Kurt Suzuki 0.335 - 0.351 -0.016
11 Freddie Freeman 0.378 - 0.403 -0.025
12 Tyler Flowers 0.320 - 0.363 -0.043

Culberson is obviously producing way above his true talent level. We all know this already.

I've spent a lot of time delving into whether or not it's a skill for a player to consistently outproduce his xwOBA, and came to the conclusion that Ender was one of the guys who has some skill in that area (he had done it 3 years in a row). Suddenly in 2018 he's not. He hasn't changed in 2 of the skills that contribute to outproducing xwOBA (being LHed and having above average speed), but he has stopped spraying the ball around as well as he had previously, and perhaps he's gotten a bit unlucky.

Camargo isn't particularly fast, he doesn't spray the ball around very evenly, but he does bat LHed a majority of the time. Taken all together, Camargo doesn't profile as a guy who will consistently beat his xwOBA by much.

Looking into the wOBA-xwOBA by contact quality reveals where much of Camargo's "luck" has been happening...

http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/statcast-lab-radial-woba-by-launch-anglespeed

Barrels: 0.113 (#2 behind only Culberson's insane 0.431)
Solid: 0.420 (#1 ahead of Ender at 0.234)
Flare: 0.069 (#2 behind Culberson at 0.098)
Under: -0.009 (Middle of the pack)
Topped: -0.012 (Middle of the pack)
Weak: 0.040 (Middle of the pack)

What we are seeing is Camargo regularly getting extremely fortunate outcomes when he makes Solid contact. This isn't Barrel contact, rather it's the contact just below that quality of contact. Rather than producing a ~.700 wOBA on those 20 batted balls, Camargo has produced a 1.091 wOBA.

There have been 126 MLB batters with 20+ Solid contact balls in 2018. Camargo ranks #2 in "luck" on those types of batted balls. When that luck regresses, some of those HRs and doubles will turn into fly outs, and his BABIP and HR/FB rate will drop.

Camargo's 94.0 FB/LD exit velocity RHed supports a Top 25% HR/FB rate (17%-18%), but his 89.6 FB/LD exit velocity (86.8 since August 1) LHed still only supports a ~9% HR/FB rate. If Camargo plays everyday, and faces roughly 2:1 RHP:LHP, we should expect an overall HR/FB rate around 12%.

So what is a guy who profiles as a hitter with a 7%-8% BB rate, a ~20% K rate, a .300-.310 BABIP and a 12% HR rate while hitting 30%-35% FBs?

Almost exactly the .260/.320/.415 line FG projects for him going forward. That's an average-ish hitter overall with plus defense at 3B, who would be best served seeing more LHP than RHP. The Braves could still use a LHH 3B, and I hope to see them get one this off season.

That’s great work right there.

I was about to say that we’ve been attributing Camargo’s success to luck for two years now, so maybe he’s just one of those guys who has a high BABIP due to a high LD%. But, your write up (specifically the part about the different types of contact) has made me think twice.

 

[msstate7]

Is there a skill level with getting a lot of bloop hits? Seems he gets a bunch, and not sure all that is luck.

 

[50PoundHead]

What I think people easily forget about Camargo is that he wasn't "supposed" to be a MLB player at all with the bat, so for us to even be discussing it is a testament to his improvement. He has come a LONG LONG way in the last 2 years.

Fwiw, I think he ends up a shade better than your FG projection.

That's a very good point. When he was coming up through the system, I saw a 250 - 300 AB guy who would play all three infield positions and maybe learn to play some outfield as well. I saw him mostly as a glove-first guy who could play shortstop in a pinch and would probably end with an OPS in the low .700 range.

 

[Tapate50]

That's a very good point. When he was coming up through the system, I saw a 250 - 300 AB guy who would play all three infield positions and maybe learn to play some outfield as well. I saw him mostly as a glove-first guy who could play shortstop in a pinch and would probably end with an OPS in the low .700 range.

At best. I don't think he ever made a top 20 list or anything of that nature. He wasn't supposed to be a MLB player really other than the glove being fairly legit.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm curious, is a .300-.310 BABIP consistent with the xwOBA of .328.

His career data indicates he might be able to sustain a higher BABIP. In the majors he's got a career BABIP of .336. In relatively small samples in AAA he was at .324 and .333 in 2017 and 2018. And in AA, he was at .317.

Makes me think he could sustain a BABIP in the .320-.330 range.

High BABIP is correlated to hitting a lot of hard line drives, being fast, and not pulling grounders into a shift.

I have the equation at work and I’ll plug Camargo’s numbers into it when I get back from the gym.

 

[Enscheff]

That's a very good point. When he was coming up through the system, I saw a 250 - 300 AB guy who would play all three infield positions and maybe learn to play some outfield as well. I saw him mostly as a glove-first guy who could play shortstop in a pinch and would probably end with an OPS in the low .700 range.

That’s pretty much what all the predictive measures suggest he is...

 

[Enscheff]

I'm curious, is a .300-.310 BABIP consistent with the xwOBA of .328.

His career data indicates he might be able to sustain a higher BABIP. In the majors he's got a career BABIP of .336. In relatively small samples in AAA he was at .324 and .333 in 2017 and 2018. And in AA, he was at .317.

Makes me think he could sustain a BABIP in the .320-.330 range.

Using Camargo's 2018 stats, his xBABIP according to this calculation (assuming I didn't mess anything up):

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/

is .296.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Is there a skill level with getting a lot of bloop hits? Seems he gets a bunch, and not sure all that is luck.

I can recall at least 5-6 instances of him getting those little flare hits into left field while hitting lefty. A couple of them turned into doubles. He probably has more, but those are just the ones of the top of my head.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Using Camargo's 2018 stats, his xBABIP according to this calculation (assuming I didn't mess anything up):

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/

is .296.

How large is the margin of error within that equation and how often do people deviate from it in large samples? I trust that its correct and that Camargo is due for some regression, but before reading all this I had him pegged as someone who could sustain something like a .730-.750 OPS against righties and an .800-.850 OPS vs. lefties. Should I scale back those expectations against righties to something like .690-.720?

 

[Enscheff]

How large is the margin of error within that equation and how often do people deviate from it in large samples? I trust that its correct and that Camargo is due for some regression, but before reading all this I had him pegged as someone who could sustain something like a .730-.750 OPS against righties and an .800-.850 OPS vs. lefties. Should I scale back those expectations against righties to something like .690-.720?

It's like all projection systems...subject to luck (good or bad) and unexpected improvements. It's simply the best version of xBABIP to date, meaning that it has the highest year-to-year correlation of anything found so far. It is a significantly better predictor than straight BABIP.

I plan on doing some more work to beef up my projection system this off season, and I will be doing projections for players vs LHP and RHP. My guess is your expectations for Camargo vs LHP is fairly accurate (he has legit peripherals as a RHH), but your expectations vs RHP will need to be scaled back as you suggested.

Of course, any player can have a year like Suzuki's 2017 or CJ's batting title year where a flukey HR/FB rate or BABIP carries them to a career season, but for the purposes of projecting the production of an entire roster, these types of projections usually end up fairly accurate. They tend to break down for 2 reasons:

1. A young team gets better quickly (like the Braves this year)
2. A team gets lucky sequencing (like the Phillies this year)

 

[Braves1976]

BTW, Ender has saved 15 runs in CF according to DRS this year, his DRS last year winning the gold glove was 5 DRS after saving 15 the year before. His range numbers are even better this year too. So for those that thought earlier this year that he wasn't as good as in the past. Well, he has actually been even better this year on defense despite his off year at the plate.

 

[thewupk]

BTW, Ender has saved 15 runs in CF according to DRS this year, his DRS last year winning the gold glove was 5 DRS after saving 15 the year before. His range numbers are even better this year too. So for those that thought earlier this year that he wasn't as good as in the past. Well, he has actually been even better this year on defense despite his off year at the plate.

Statcast as him with 19 Outs Above Average which is tied for 1st with Harrison Bader. A caveat with this stat is it only measures balls in the air and doesn't take into consideration throwing arm or cutting balls off in the gap. But yes Ender is still an elite defender. As a general rule I prefer DRS to UZR and think his 2.7 bWAR is much more of an indication of his value to the team than his 2.1 fWAR. He will pass 3 bWAR once again.

I feel the same way about Swanson with his 2.6 bWAR compared to his 1.7 fWAR. He's played plus defense at short and a big reason why the Braves are where they are. Throw is Albies who's played good defense at 2nd and this the best up the middle our defense has been since the Druw/Furcal/Giles days

 

[Braves1976]

Statcast as him with 19 Outs Above Average which is tied for 1st with Harrison Bader. A caveat with this stat is it only measures balls in the air and doesn't take into consideration throwing arm or cutting balls off in the gap. But yes Ender is still an elite defender. As a general rule I prefer DRS to UZR and think his 2.7 bWAR is much more of an indication of his value to the team than his 2.1 fWAR. He will pass 3 bWAR once again.

I feel the same way about Swanson with his 2.6 bWAR compared to his 1.7 fWAR. He's played plus defense at short and a big reason why the Braves are where they are. Throw is Albies who's played good defense at 2nd and this the best up the middle our defense has been since the Druw/Furcal/Giles days

I agree, but I'd also argue that Culberson is a plus defender at short as well when he plays there regularly (his natural position). So we have a strong back-up too when used properly. Further, the Braves have a lot of good defenders at their positions under AA. Despite that we've seen a number of them making errors going back to this past homestand and in Arizona (Camargo has made a few at really bad times). Hopefully Swanson ended that error streak with his game saving play on Saturday. It was also a mistake by Snit to play Duvall in RF instead of LF in that Boston game. Duvall has not played much RF and had a -2 DRS playing there in a small sample with the Reds. But he is great in LF defensively. Interestingly, despite us using Acuna in LF the most. His best position is RF IMO and he has even been stronger in CF in small sample this year (4 DRS). He has an even DRS is left, not hurting us there but not saving any runs either.

 

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

I hope he gets 30 homers!