#1 pick in doubt
- Thread starter msstate7
- Start date
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I have to believe the Twins will play better at some point, but at the same time, the Reds will likely play worse (and likely move a few guys at the deadline as well). I'm envisioning a massive sell-off by the Padres by the non-waiver trade deadline, which could put them in the hunt as well. And I still think the Phillies will collapse like an Italian coalition government.
That said, we should still be the favorites.
That said, we should still be the favorites.
msstate7
Well-known member
3 at our under 3.51
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Plus, it seems the bullpen is starting to come together some with Vizzy, Withrow, the incoming Simmons, Cervenka, Krol, and perhaps Jenkins and Gant full time at some point.
We have the worst team in the majors so it would take a bit of "unluck" to pick further down. Our starting pitching staff has been incredibly lucky so far on the year and that is hard to maintain over the course of an entire year.
Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Teheran 2.77 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Wisler 3.21 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 4.66 xFIP
Perez 3.86 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Folty 3.51 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yet as a staff our numbers are: 4.27 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 4.34 xFIP
dak
Well-known member
Teheran has out-performed his FIP over a large sample size, so he's a guy that I think fWAR undervalues a bit. Wisler's approach may put him in the same boat, but we need to see more to know for sure. Folty I definitely see as a prime candidate to have his performance (ERA) move pretty close to his FIP by end of year.
Yeah, the relievers have. But, those guys are going to be cycled in and out so much I'm not sure what to gather from that.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Agree with all of that.
Teheran has consistently been about a half run better than his FIP over three complete seasons prior to this year. I see no reason to think that won't continue. He'll probably end up in the low 3s for ERA instead of where he is now, but that's still damned good.
The others really don't have enough of a sample size for their FIP to have any value as a predictor. If I had to guess I'd say the current FIP is about what you'll get out of Wisler and Perez, and F-word will end up bringing his down a good bit over time. But a guess is really all it is at this point until they get more innings behind them.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
How would you explain the three plus year pattern of outperforming his FIP? I agree that he doesn't really give up enough ground balls to fit that profile, but three plus years in a row is hard to attribute to good luck.
My best guess is that the HR component overstates the FIP for guys who don't give up a lot of base runners.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
I don't care as much about the #1 pick if we show marked improvement among the guys we want to keep. I'd rather see a second half close to .500, where we see the team gelling with players we intend to move forward with.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
The other factor with our pitching is that we were terrible on D earlier. We should get better. I know FIP is supposed to take that part out but AJ, Abyar, and Adonis were the 3 worst defenders in america for a long stretch there.
I think our starting pitching is only going to get better. But they are young and will blow up from time to time. Plus we'll manage innings.
And we still have no way to score.
I'm thinking we lost a lot of games 4-2, 3-1, 2-1, etc. Number 1 peak, we are still the favorites.
I think our starting pitching is only going to get better. But they are young and will blow up from time to time. Plus we'll manage innings.
And we still have no way to score.
I'm thinking we lost a lot of games 4-2, 3-1, 2-1, etc. Number 1 peak, we are still the favorites.
FIP lol.
Folty has a 3.5 K/BB ratio and a solid WHIP. He's giving up the long ball at high clip, but his other numbers are strong. He certainly could regress but acting like he's been super lucky is stupid. Especially on a team that hasn't been that great on defense so far.
There could be a number of factors. The Braves defense over those 3 years was above average for instance. In the case of the 2016 season, his BABIP is absurdly low at .246, which is a contributing factor. As I said, he could simply be a guy that does it for a career, but I think it is too early to tell. If the Braves defense reverts back to normal for the 2016 season and his BABIP returns to normalcy, it will be interesting to see if he's able to outperform his FIP. Major league average BABIP is roughly .295 and Teheran has been slightly lower than that in the past (Simmons/Heyward/CF Defense?)
Good thing no one is doing so.
Major League average k/bb is currently slightly over 2.5:1 so his is good, but certainly not elite by any means. His home run numbers will certainly stabilize over time; he will not be able to strand runners at a rate of 87% over the long haul.
I couldn't imagine an instance where I would care what a pitchers "WHIP" is, but major league average is 1.31 compared to his 1.26. Folty is a guy that shows a lot of promise to me, but the point his he's at a bit of luck in the young season.