Julio is a guy who has outperformed his FIP. That is expected but not by a near full run that it is right now. So some regression is expected but not to a 3.7 ERA. I mean his BABIP against is in the 240's. That's unlikely to be sustained the entire year. The same is especially true for Wisler who's BABIP against is 232. That is very unlikely to continue as well. Just some things to keep in mind.
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Julio is a guy who has outperformed his FIP. That is expected but not by a near full run that it is right now. So some regression is expected but not to a 3.7 ERA. I mean his BABIP against is in the 240's. That's unlikely to be sustained the entire year. The same is especially true for Wisler who's BABIP against is 232. That is very unlikely to continue as well. Just some things to keep in mind.
chop2chip
Well-known member
That's very reasonable. I would counter though that young pitchers tend to improve upon their peripherals over time (Wisler/Teheran are definitely trending positively since the beginning of May), so while we will likely see a regression in BABIP, we should also be hopeful in their FIPS improving.
conalthomas
High School Draftee
I like the metaphor.
4maddux_cy's
Spring Training Invitee
I haven't studied advanced statistics enough as I should and accept them to be very good and mostly better measurements than in the past. I cannot get over this thought that strikeouts and FIP are the only way a pitcher can be elite. You're telling me Tom Glavine was not an elite pitcher? His FIP numbers and k/9 rates were never overly impressive as far as I can tell.
If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.
If I am wrong point out where because I see lots of years in the 4's for Glavine's FIP. I was under the impression that was not good.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Last time I checked games are won and lost based on the actual runs scored not what some formula thinks the score could have been.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Glavine had a career ERA that out-performed his career xFIP by 100 points. I think that's an alternative way to be an elite pitcher.
Would I be able to identify the next Glavine if I was watching him pitch? I suspect not. So my presumption in watching pretty much any pitcher with non-elite strikeout rates is that he is not going to be the next Glavine.
Nobody is going to argue with you about this. The main reason to look at the advanced metrics of a game where we might have given up only a run or two is to see how likely it is to happen again. Whether a pitcher loads the bases and gets out of it each time or they throw a no-hitter is irrelevant to the game that has already taken place, but I'm going to bet on the pitcher that did the latter to continue seeing success.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The other thing to keep in mind is if thousands of people play a game of chance with equal skill, there will be a handful who will do incredibly well. Not that I'm arguing Glavine is one of those. I think he was a very effective pitcher using skills that are much more subtle than the ones we are used to seeing with very successful pitchers.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
Glavine was a one in a million in that regard. For the vast majority of players FIP is an excellent predictor of future success. It's also important to look at that players baseline. Julio for example has out performed his FIP by half a run regularly. I would expect that to continue for the most part. This year he's out performed it by almost a full run. I don't expect that to continue.
Yeah that is what we would want to see. I'm definatley encouraged to see his K/9 jump to over 8 again. His HR/9 and BB/9 to drop below 1 an 3. His GB% to jump to 44%. All good signs.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
Glavine's skill set included getting the umpire to expand the zone. This helped him get a lot of soft contact. IDK if he would have been as successful in this era where the umps rarely expand the zone laterally anymore.
Why can't we just add up projected WAR at the beginning of the season and go straight to the playoffs. I think some on here might prefer that. The STAT's would never be wrong. (TIC of course). ;-)
He did play in the perfect era for his skill set. Maddux certainly benefited from this as well. That being said I feel his stubbornness was one of his biggest attributes. If Player A won't roll over on your outside junk then who cares if he walks because Player B likely will.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
indeed, Glavine never gave in to anyone. IMO, he might have been even better had he thrown inside a little more often, but I reckon he felt he had little reason to do so.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I happen to be one of those who takes pleasure trying to predict how teams and players will perform. But I don't think anyone around here doesn't enjoy the game itself. Those of you who don't enjoy the analytical side of things are free not to indulge. A chacun son gout.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think he threw inside more often than a lot of people realized. Even for a strike now and then.
He did more at the end of his career whenever the umps took the 2 inches off the plate away.
I don't have a problem with using Stat's until they assume that nobody ever improves, or performs better than they suggest. That happens way to often for my comfort.
Nobody assumes any of those things. Players improve, decline, have extended slumps and career years.