2014 Projected 25-man roster

I could say the same about you. But just as edification, no proposed trade has to end with what is posted on these boards. Cubs have tons of position prospects that we could use in the near future. AFWIW, Bowman posted a blog/article on the 17th that outlined pretty much what I said. Not exact but as Knucksie knows so well, I dont know how to link.

I would trade him in a package for Sale whose got a great contract.

I would want value, not getting 2 years of cost which is what he has back.
 
Starting lineup locked except 2nd base, competition between Uggla, Pena, La Stella and Pastornicky. My guess is Uggla is the starter to begin the year.

Starters set - Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Wood.

Four bullpen spots locked - Kimbrel, Walden, Avilan and Carpenter. 3 spots open - Varvaro, Gearrin, Hale, Vasquez, Buchter, Jaime, Obispo. My guess is Varvaro, Vasquez and Buchter (second lefty until Venters is ready).

Three bench spots locked - Laird, Pena, Doumit. 2 spots open - Schafer, Constanza, Pastornicky, Terdoslavich, Gamel. My guess is Schafer and Terdoslavich.
 
The issue of who has options left and who doesn't often comes into play at the end of spring training when the last couple spots on the team are determined.

It is worth keeping in mind that Schafer and Pena have no options left. Pastornicky, Constanza, and Terdoslavich do. Gamel is on a minor league contract so we keep him even if he doesn't make the major league roster at the end of spring training.

With the pitcher, Varvaro and Gearrin are out of options. I think this will help them relative to Vasquez if their spring training performances are comparable.
 
Starting lineup locked except 2nd base, competition between Uggla, Pena, La Stella and Pastornicky. My guess is Uggla is the starter to begin the year.

Starters set - Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Wood.

Four bullpen spots locked - Kimbrel, Walden, Avilan and Carpenter. 3 spots open - Varvaro, Gearrin, Hale, Vasquez, Buchter, Jaime, Obispo. My guess is Varvaro, Vasquez and Buchter (second lefty until Venters is ready).

Three bench spots locked - Laird, Pena, Doumit. 2 spots open - Schafer, Constanza, Pastornicky, Terdoslavich, Gamel. My guess is Schafer and Terdoslavich.

Yeah, when the games don't matter (spring) Uggla will perform. Maybe he'll crush a few in a spring game vs a team that needs a 2b (NYY?) and we can deal him at a slight uptick in value. Winter has been awfully quiet re Uggla, i think that means Wren has given up trying to trade him for the time being.
 
Our 2nd base situation is going be quite interesting in spring training. You have to wonder if the Lasik surgery Dan got late in the season will pay any dividends for him next year. You also have to wonder how Dan handles being left off the post-season roster. Despite hitting a miserable .179, he still got on base at a .309 clip and hit 22 homers. Does La Stella keep hitting in the spring like he has his whole career, and how well must he hit to get awarded the starting gig, or how bad does Dan have to hit to lose it. Could Pena or Rev do well enough to win the starting position.

As for the bullpen, I really hope we can resign EOF. If so, once he and Venters are both back, can you imagine a shutdown bullpen of:

1. Kimbrel
2. Walden
3. Venters
4. O'Flaherty
5. Avilan
6. Carpenter
7. Varvaro

Wow.
 
With pitching it is worth distinguishing between what you start the year with and what you finish the year with. Last year EOF, Venters, Hudson and Gearrin fell by the wayside. Maholm and Beachy too. In 2012, Jurrjens, Beachy and Hanson were in the rotation at the start of the year but were no longer there at the end. In 2011, Lowe and Jurrjens declined sharply in the second half and Moylan was lost to injury.

With that in mind, here are the pitchers who I think will be there at the start of the season and some spare parts who are likely to feature prominently.

Starters: Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Wood are the incumbents. The pecking order in terms of depth looks like this: Floyd (once he is ready), Hale, Maya, Martin, Thomas, Northcraft. I expect Graham to start the season in AA and to stay there until his shoulder is shown to be sound.

The pecking order will undoubtedly get scrambled based on performance and injury. But our depth is really quite good. I'll repeat something I've said before: while there no ace currently in our rotation, all five are fairly close to ace caliber and could reach that status with relatively small improvements in their strikeout and/or walk rates.

Right-handed relief: Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Gearrin and Varvaro at the start. My take on the pecking order among the spare parts looks like this: Vasquez, Hale, Martin, Obispo, Schlosser, Northcraft, Graham, Simmons, Harper, Jaime, Hoyt, Lamm.

We have tremendous right-handed pitching depth. I list Gearrin and Varvaro among the initial five because they are out of options and if their spring training performances are decent the team will try to avoid losing them. Note that I list quite a few guys who have been mainly starters in the minors as potential depth for the pen. This is a common transition. And the guys who start in the minors are usually (though not always) more talented than those who come up as relievers. Graham and Simmons are two guys with a lot of upside who I had trouble placing in the pecking order. Graham due to his injury last year and Simmons due to his rapid climb.

Left-handed relief: Avilan and Buchter on the opening day roster. Venters will be added once he is ready.

Unlike the situation with righties, we are quite short of lefty depth in the upper minors. Thomas is the only guy with good potential among the remaining lefties likely to be in AAA. Given this situation, I think Wren will try to sign EOF or add another lefty reliever.
 
With pitching it is worth distinguishing between what you start the year with and what you finish the year with. Last year EOF, Venters, Hudson and Gearrin fell by the wayside. Maholm and Beachy too. In 2012, Jurrjens, Beachy and Hanson were in the rotation at the start of the year but were no longer there at the end. In 2011, Lowe and Jurrjens declined sharply in the second half and Moylan was lost to injury.

With that in mind, here are the pitchers who I think will be there at the start of the season and some spare parts who are likely to feature prominently.

Starters: Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran, Wood are the incumbents. The pecking order in terms of depth looks like this: Floyd (once he is ready), Hale, Maya, Martin, Thomas, Northcraft. I expect Graham to start the season in AA and to stay there until his shoulder is shown to be sound.

The pecking order will undoubtedly get scrambled based on performance and injury. But our depth is really quite good. I'll repeat something I've said before: while there no ace currently in our rotation, all five are fairly close to ace caliber and could reach that status with relatively small improvements in their strikeout and/or walk rates.

Right-handed relief: Kimbrel, Walden, Carpenter, Gearrin and Varvaro at the start. My take on the pecking order among the spare parts looks like this: Vasquez, Hale, Martin, Obispo, Schlosser, Northcraft, Graham, Simmons, Harper, Jaime, Hoyt, Lamm.

We have tremendous right-handed pitching depth. I list Gearrin and Varvaro among the initial five because they are out of options and if their spring training performances are decent the team will try to avoid losing them. Note that I list quite a few guys who have been mainly starters in the minors as potential depth for the pen. This is a common transition. And the guys who start in the minors are usually (though not always) more talented than those who come up as relievers. Graham and Simmons are two guys with a lot of upside who I had trouble placing in the pecking order. Graham due to his injury last year and Simmons due to his rapid climb.

Left-handed relief: Avilan and Buchter on the opening day roster. Venters will be added once he is ready.

Unlike the situation with righties, we are quite short of lefty depth in the upper minors. Thomas is the only guy with good potential among the remaining lefties likely to be in AAA. Given this situation, I think Wren will try to sign EOF or add another lefty reliever.

I doubt both Gearrin and Varvaro make the opening day roster, I expect one to be moved if we sign another reliever (be that EOF or someone else). Note this quote from Wren: "If we can add a quality arm and create additional depth, we will," Wren said. "But we're going to have some tough decisions in our bullpen. We're going to have guys that we can't keep in our Major League bullpen that are going to go be key pieces for other people. Anything we add right now, we're going to have to subtract. It's not like we have holes that we have to fill."

Further, it makes the most sense to move Varvaro IMO. Gearrin coming off injury probably has the least (if any) trade value between the two. Varvaro should bring something minor in a trade. But if healthy I expect Gearrin to be the more effective going forward.

PS: Are you sure Gearrin is out of options? I thought he had one more left like Constanza, but I am not sure.
 
I doubt both Gearrin and Varvaro make the opening day roster, I expect one to be moved if we sign another reliever (be that EOF or someone else). Note this quote from Wren: "If we can add a quality arm and create additional depth, we will," Wren said. "But we're going to have some tough decisions in our bullpen. We're going to have guys that we can't keep in our Major League bullpen that are going to go be key pieces for other people. Anything we add right now, we're going to have to subtract. It's not like we have holes that we have to fill."

Further, it makes the most sense to move Varvaro IMO. Gearrin coming off injury probably has the least (if any) trade value between the two. Varvaro should bring something minor in a trade. But if healthy I expect Gearrin to be the more effective going forward.

PS: Are you sure Gearrin is out of options? I thought he had one more left like Constanza, but I am not sure.

Gearrin was optioned each of 2011, 2012 and 2013.

I saw that quote from Wren. It made me think that he feels comfortable opening the season with the group of arms we have. That wouldn't preclude signing EOF since he wouldn't be competing for an opening day slot. In some ways EOF would play a similar role as Floyd. We lack lefty depth for the pen and he would fill that need very nicely for later in the season.
 
Gearrin was optioned each of 2011, 2012 and 2013.

I saw that quote from Wren. It made me think that he feels comfortable opening the season with the group of arms we have. That wouldn't preclude signing EOF since he wouldn't be competing for an opening day slot. In some ways EOF would play a similar role as Floyd. We lack lefty depth for the pen and he would fill that need very nicely for later in the season.

True, but it still sounds like Wren will move someone among the righties (and those out of options seem the most likely candidates).
 
Opening Day:

Jimenez
Minor
Medlen
Teheran
Wood

Heyward
Justin
Freeman
Johnson
Gattis
Drew
BJ
Simmons
P

Kimbrel
Beachy
Avilan
Walden
Carpenter
Gearrin
Buchter

Laird, Doumit, Pena, Gamel, Joey
 
Opening Day:

Jimenez
Minor
Medlen
Teheran
Wood

Heyward
Justin
Freeman
Johnson
Gattis
Drew
BJ
Simmons
P

Kimbrel
Beachy
Avilan
Walden
Carpenter
Gearrin
Buchter

Laird, Doumit, Pena, Gamel, Joey

Really think Schafer is gone? With no serious backup for BJ?
 
My prediction:

Lineup:

Heyward - RF

La Stella - 2B

J. Upton - LF

Freeman - 1B

Gattis - C

Johnson - 3B

B.J. Upton - CF

Simmons - SS

Bench:

Laird - C

Doumit - LF/1B/C

Schafer - OF

Pena - IF

Gamel - 1B/3B

Rotation:

Medlen - RHP

Minor - LHP

Teheran - RHP

Wood - LHP

Beachy - RHP

Bullpen:

Gearrin - LRP

Vasquez - LRP

Butcher - LOOGY

Carpenter - MRP

Avilan - SUP

Walden - SUP

Kimbrel - CP
 
Schafer isn't a serious backup. If BJ fails again, we will see Heyward in CF and Doumit getting time in the outfield.

This! Schafer is a defensive replacement/pinch runner who will occasionally give an OF a day off. If someone were to get hurt it would be Doumit - LF, Heyward - CF, J. Upton - RF
 
Neither of Heyward or Upton will be with Atlanta in 2017 when the new stadium opens. Dont think for one moment that doesnt enter into what Wren does or does not do. Re: Heyward, Tons of talent, no doubt, but just hasnt proven it yet IMO. Upton is pretty much a ho hum guy. Power is a positive. You do know that Gattis played more games in LF than he caught last year. Doumit played more OF as well.

A purely defensive catcher (or any other position player) is harder to hide in the NL than he would be in the AL.

If CWS came along and offered Sale for Upton, CB, Wood and another prospect I would have to say yes.

If Cubs came along and offered Samarzjia for the same deal I would have to say no.

If Cubs offered Samardzjia for Heyward, CB and a minor league pitcher (mid level) I would have to say yes.

I think for Price we would have to start with Gattis, maybe Minor plus 2 or our "elite" prospects not named CB.

I dont think its a foregone conclusion that Justin and Heyward will leave in free agency. After the 2015 season there will likely be 50+ million(60 if they trade Kimbrel" in payroll coming off the books between Heyward/Justin/Medlen/Uggla/and Venters if he rebounds this year. Surely they can afford to re-sign atleast one of JUpton or Heyward. The only reason they would get out of Atlanta's ability to re-sign them is if they have a MVP caliber offensive year. If both just hover around .800 OPS without having a breakout year then is anyone really going to pay them 20 million a year? The Braves paid Uggla/BJ 26.4 million this last year to be the two worst regular hitters in the majors, I think they can afford to pay two good hitters close to a combined 40 million a year. Justin already signed one contract extension with the DBacks and they didnt even have his brother like we do. "Worst" case scenario and both Heyward and Upton turn into the MVP hitters they have the talent to be then it wont be that bad paying each 25 million a year. Personally I think Freeman is the best hitter on the team and he would be my re-signing priority.
 
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