2014 Roster & Payroll

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Payroll was in the $90-95M range this year. With the new national TV revenues (which bring in an extra $28M per year per team) it will be probably be around $110M in 2014.

Here is what the numbers might look like next year. I present a scenario without too much change and without re-signing McCann. It is meant to be a point of departure for discussion.

Rotation: Minor (2.5M, looks like he'll be a Super 2), Medlen (4M), Hudson (6M), Beachy (1M), Teheran (0.5M). Total Rotation (14M)

Pen: Kimbrel (6.5), Walden (1.5), Carpenter (0.5), Avilan (0.5), Wood (0.5), Varvaro (0.5), Gearrin (0.5). Total Pen (10.5M)

Starters: BJ (14.2), Justin (14.3), Heyward (5), Freeman (3.8), Uggla (13.2), Lord BABIP (4.5), Simmons (0.5), Gattis (0.5) Total (56M)

Bench: Laird (1.5), Reed (1.6), Pena (0.9), Schafer (1.0), Pastornicky (0.5) Total Bench (5.5M)

Total: 86M

I'm also going to assume they bring back Venters and EOF and those two guys start the season on the DL at a combined cost of 4M.

This makes for a Grand Total of 90M.

The main takeaway from this exercise is that Wren will have about $20M of flexibility (if you are willing to share my assumption of a $110M budget). I think he'll keep about 5M in reserve for mid-season moves. So about 15M this off-season to play with. Could be used to re-sign McCann or make other moves.
 
We would have 15M for next season but then the raises kick in the following years. It doesn't make sense to load money into Mac as long as its clear that Freeman/Heyward stay.
 
thethe said:
We would have 15M for next season but then the raises kick in the following years. It doesn't make sense to load money into Mac as long as its clear that Freeman/Heyward stay.
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Yes, Wren has to look several years ahead because our young players will be getting raises as they move through the arbitration process. But there are also some offsets. Presumably some or all of the 6M I have ticketed for Hudson drops out after 2014, all of the $13M that Uggla makes drops out after 2015. The front office also has the option of moving some of the younger players as they get expensive. Kimbrel and Lord BABIP would be candidates. We could hold on to them for 2014 and 2015 and then trade them. Or allow them to move on as free agents after 2016. Medlen is another one we could trade at some point or allow to leave as a free agent after 2015.
 
Have to extend guys like Heyward and Freeman and maybe a pitcher or 2. I might even be inclined to offer Simmons a long extension at this point.
 
Think the scenario of McCann returning is way < 50% Would almost bet money on him ending up with Texas. He will get tendered for the compensation pick though. Don't expect the same for Maholm, since the demand for his services won't be as high. Kind of think that they're going to take a wait and see approach with Hudson. Supposedly, he'll be completely healed by next month. They'll take a wait and see approach.

Where's Venters in that bullpen? Might as well let him start the year in rotation at AAA to get innings/experience.

The likes of Reed and Schafer are replaceable, although affordable. One might be back, but probably not both.

Bottom line, you can't really project next season's opening day roster, strictly based on the previous October. Year to year, there's always A LOT of turnover. Wren will be active in the trade market and maybe (holding breath) he'll take the plunge in the FA market.
 
Bj1133 said:
Have to extend guys like Heyward and Freeman and maybe a pitcher or 2. I might even be inclined to offer Simmons a long extension at this point.
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It takes two to tango. We can't extend if they have decided they want to eventually test the free agent market. But I agree we should try. Heyward first since he is the one closest to free agency. If he is not interested, I would move on to the others.
 
Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him
 
Bj1133 said:
Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him
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It is worth keeping in mind that players who go to free agency are not necessarily looking to move. A fair number of free agents re-sign with their teams.
 
Bj1133 said:
Hate to say it, but if Heyward declines an extension offer (I believe its been reported that he already declined one) then it might be best to trade him
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Not always the best idea. Sometimes the best idea is to take the risk of "career year" entering free agency.
 
Reading thru OBriens and Bowmans Tweets this morning (I dont give total credence to either but they are closer to the flagpole than any of us) they neither give much chance that McCann returns.

Our bench has to be strengthened. Five little banjo pickers aint gonna get it done. My first suggestion would be Pierzynski. Is Pena even projected to be ready.

One of the scribes this AM says Venters and OFlay wont even be healthy til mid and late June. Half season gone so I wouldnt even put them in the equation.

Hudson is iffy at best IMO. Josh Johnson has said he wants to come back to NL. Better bet on a 1 year IMO. Cheaper too.
 
I would be all over Johnson. Give him a big time incentive laden deal. He could end up being the best signing of the whole offseason.
 
nsacpi said:
Josh Johnson vs Huddy on a one year deal. Hmmm. Interesting way to look at it.
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I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.
 
thethe said:
I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.
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We're not rebuilding. I'd be very surprised to see any trades that involved our sending an established player for prospects.
 
thethe said:
I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.[/QUOTSi
Signing one is a limited gamble with the risk of losing their dollars. Signing 2 would be foolish in that both could easily fail. Trading Medlen or Minor at this time in favor of Hudson or Johnson is considerably more than foolish IMO.
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PawPawMaxwell said:
thethe said:
I'd sign both and see what you could get for Medlen or Minor. I'd really like to have the farm system back to the levels it was 5-6 years ago.[/QUOTSi
Signing one is a limited gamble with the risk of losing their dollars. Signing 2 would be foolish in that both could easily fail. Trading Medlen or Minor at this time in favor of Hudson or Johnson is considerably more than foolish IMO.
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If you trade one of them you still have the following (assuming you sign both Johnson and Huddy)

Medlen or Minor
Teheran
Huddy
Johnson
Beachy
Wood

I'm actually not worried about Huddy being a serviceable pitcher. Johnson is a real risk though.
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The upside on Josh Johnson can't be ignored either. Given the choice between Huddy and Josh Johnson, I'd have to lean toward Johnson. Assuming the cost is reasonable.
 
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