2016 Postseason Thread

[yeezus]

Inciarte certainly had the better 2016, but again is 2 years older.

Ender was better two years ago than Baez was this year, in his rookie year, in less games. I won't deny Baez has a higher ceiling, but he also has a much lower floor because his risk of not making enough contact is real.

He would be ridiculously lucky to become Soriano. He doesn't have his power, much less his speed.

 

[yeezus]

How many guys strike out 30% of the time in the high minors and go on to be really good hitters?

 

[gilesfan]

Ender was better two years ago than Baez was this year, in his rookie year, in less games. I won't deny Baez has a higher ceiling, but he also has a much lower floor because his risk of not making enough contact is real.

He would be ridiculously lucky to become Soriano. He doesn't have his power, much less his speed.

Ender had a 86 wRC+ 2 years ago. Baez put up a 94 wRC+. How did you come to that conclusion?

 

[gilesfan]

How many guys strike out 30% of the time in the high minors and go on to be really good hitters?

Well, Kris Bryant for 1. There are others, but it's beside the point. Certainly high strikeout guys have a higher bust potential, but how many great defensive SS/2B bust?

 

[yeezus]

Ender had a 86 wRC+ 2 years ago. Baez put up a 94 wRC+. How did you come to that conclusion?

WAR?

 

[yeezus]

Well, Kris Bryant for 1. There are others, but it's beside the point. Certainly high strikeout guys have a higher bust potential, but how many great defensive SS/2B bust?

It's really not besides the point. Baez's and Bryant's numbers aren't really similar in anyway. Across AA and AAA, Bryant K'd less, walked about twice as much, and hit for more power with higher averages and way higher wRC+.

Plenty of those types of guys never live up to their ceiling. He's already, obviously, a good player. But Inciarte has proven more and IMO has a better chance of remaining at his level than Baez does at being a superstar. Plus, Inciarte's fWAR has increased each year.

 

[yeezus]

Baez has a lot of work to do, IMO, to be a star player.

 

[gilesfan]

WAR?

I thought you were talking about hitting.

Obviously, Baez is not the hitter that Bryant is But, Baez is a defensive wiz at SS/2B that could possibly hit 25-30 homers some day. There is a chance that he busts, he his upside is way higher than that of Inciarte. I can't imagine someone deciding to take Inciarte. Maybe Baez wasn't a good defender and the bat was too risky, but we are talking about a borderline gold glove type defender at SS or 2B.

Would anyone really be surprised if Baez turned into Starlinge Marte with better defense?

 

[yeezus]

I thought you were talking about hitting.

Obviously, Baez is not the hitter that Bryant is But, Baez is a defensive wiz at SS/2B that could possibly hit 25-30 homers some day. There is a chance that he busts, he his upside is way higher than that of Inciarte. I can't imagine someone deciding to take Inciarte. Maybe Baez wasn't a good defender and the bat was too risky, but we are talking about a borderline gold glove type defender at SS or 2B.

Would anyone really be surprised if Baez turned into Starlinge Marte with better defense?

I can see the argument for taking Baez, sure. I know he has a higher ceiling because of his power potential. But I definitely think plenty of teams would be happy to take Inciarte over him. Inciarte is a solid hitter and elite defender in CF and he's proven that over 2+ seasons. I think he's being undersold. And I don't think Baez did enough this past season to put the past concerns about him to bed.

I personally would be shocked if he became Marte, yeah. He doesn't have that kind of speed, which helps Marte a ton, and I'd be surprised if Baez had a BABIP as consistently high as Marte does (mostly because few do). Also, Marte's last two years in the minors (AA/AAA), his K-rate was much better than Baez's.

 

[gilesfan]

I can see the argument for taking Baez, sure. I know he has a higher ceiling because of his power potential. But I definitely think plenty of teams would be happy to take Inciarte over him. Inciarte is a solid hitter and elite defender in CF and he's proven that over 2+ seasons. I think he's being undersold. And I don't think Baez did enough this past season to put the past concerns about him to bed.

I personally would be shocked if he became Marte, yeah. He doesn't have that kind of speed, which helps Marte a ton, and I'd be surprised if Baez had a BABIP as consistently high as Marte does (mostly because few do). Also, Marte's last two years in the minors (AA/AAA), his K-rate was much better than Baez's.

But, Baez just put up a full season with a 24% k rate, he seems to getting better at it. Certainly he's not going to steal the bases of Marte, but Baez is a fast guy that hits the ball hard and doesn't shorten up. He's going to maintain a pretty high BABIP.

At age 23, marte put up a 4.4% walk rate, K rate of 27.5% and hit .257/.300/.437.
At age 23, Baez put up a 3.3% walk rate, K rate of 24.0% and hit .275/.314/.423.

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Pretty classless by the Blue Jays fans to stand and cheer as Bauer was leaving the mound due to his finger bleeding.

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Curt Schilling, of the bloody sock fame, not impressed by Bauer and his finger

[TW]788177730915426304[/TW]

 

[yeezus]

But, Baez just put up a full season with a 24% k rate, he seems to getting better at it. Certainly he's not going to steal the bases of Marte, but Baez is a fast guy that hits the ball hard and doesn't shorten up. He's going to maintain a pretty high BABIP.

At age 23, marte put up a 4.4% walk rate, K rate of 27.5% and hit .257/.300/.437.
At age 23, Baez put up a 3.3% walk rate, K rate of 24.0% and hit .275/.314/.423.

That doesn't mean Baez is going to follow the same or better development. That was also not even 50 games for Marte. His next season he was much better.

Baez put up a 24% K rate, sure..but his power was down. Can he hit 25+ homers while maintaining that? Power is a big asset of his but he had 14 homers in 140+ games.

Again, I don't think it's a no-brainer to take him over Inciarte. Inciarte's worst fWAR was better than Baez's best, and it's gone up each season. He's been better defensively. I don't see how Baez is clearly more valuable. Nothing except potential supports that.

 

[Heyward]

Baez has a long way to go to become a star, could happen sure.

But way too early to say, strikes out too much is the biggest problem.

No doubt hes a monster on defense.

 

[CrimsonCowboy]

Blue Jays in big trouble.

 

[Hudson2]

Could the Blue Jays become sellers this offseason?

 

[goldfly]

Curt Schilling, of the bloody sock fame, not impressed by Bauer and his finger

[TW]788177730915426304[/TW]

i'm not impressed with that sleaze ball in anyway shape or form

 

[50PoundHead]

Curt Schilling, of the bloody sock fame, not impressed by Bauer and his finger

[TW]788177730915426304[/TW]

I'm with goldfly. Schilling should self-impose a twitter ban. The guy's a total rube.

As for Bauer, I thought his cutter would be working last night.

 

[smootness]

Could the Blue Jays become sellers this offseason?

I don't see why they would. They're old, but they're obviously good. Might as well keep it together and make another run.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I don't see why they would. They're old, but they're obviously good. Might as well keep it together and make another run.

Don't think they can afford joey bats and EE. And I am not sure who else is leaving.