2016 Presidential Primaries [ SUPER TUESDAY | 3-1-'16]

It's way to early for polls to give an idea of what will happen in November, 2016, but I think what many overlook is that Trump may motivate a group of voters who typically don't vote and, as a result, don't show up in polls now. They may show up later when the "likely voter" category is reclibrated. It's not apples-to-apples, but I witnessed the Ventura phenomenon in Minnesota, where a bunch of folks who hadn't voted before (or since) put Jesse in the Governor's mansion. A national election is far more complicated (and Jesse won a three-way race with less than 40% of the vote), but I can see a path that would put Trump in the White House.

What is helping Trump right now (besides the welcome fading of Carson--who could still win Iowa where he has a tremendous network) is that the establishment and semi-establishment folks below him seem to be bobbing up and down with no clear challenger emerging. Last week it was Rubio. This week it's Cruz. I think the Middle East situation helps Jeb! But as long as a single challenger doesn't emerge, Trump keeps chugging along.
 
Trump averages more gaffs in a week than Biden did in a year.

The xenophobic stuff he's saying now is probably just the tip of the iceberg when the heat of the campaign comes next spring-fall.
 
Cruz also has Steve King (big Tea Party conservative Iowa congressman) backing him. I was actually standing right next to Cruz last Monday when he announced King had endorsed him. It's a pretty huge deal.
 
bravesnumberone said:
Cruz also has Steve King (big Tea Party conservative Iowa congressman) backing him. I was actually standing right next to Cruz last Monday when he announced King had endorsed him. It's a pretty huge deal.
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True and very important in Iowa. Curious to see how fluid the cultural conservative vote is in Iowa. To this point, it appears that bloc is firmly behind Carson and Carson has built an impressive network. The cultural conservatives have an out-sized effect in the Iowa caucuses, but if Carson continues to fade, those folks may (I stress may) go elsewhere. Cruz is as logical a place as any for them to land.

The other thing with Cruz is that he appears to be the only other candidate trying to build a bridge to Trump. There's been sniping back-and-forth between Trump and everyone else, but Cruz shadowed him to a couple of major events and somehow got on stage at these events. If there is a guy in the race that can meld Trump's angry white guys (and gals) and the cultural conservatives, it's probably Cruz.
 
I think that has to a large extent been a big part of Cruz's strategy all along. Let Trump and Carson self-destruct and then pounce. He's been much more inclined to go after Rubio, Bush and the "establishment" than the guys who have less experience than him. If he does lose, it won't be for lack of political talent or because he has dumb people working for him.
 
57Brave said:
what polls ?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

The ones I see are the same that had Romney winning in a landslide last time.

Polls are meaningless at this point. Lotta game left

Every time Trump is confronted he blows it -- how does he handle the everyday scrutiny that is waiting.

47% -- "women in binders "

"lock box"

" no communism in Poland"

Let's say the 47% are solid behind HRC then add all the undecideds Trump has run off --- I don't see it

unless of course Chris Christie proves undaunted by Bridgegate and takes the (R) nomination
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Did I say that Trump was beating Hillary in the polls?

Let me help you: No.

And besides, I agree, polls are virtually meaningless.

What I did say is that Hillary is the only candidate that could make Republicans vote for Trump. Please read my post again and reconsider the meaning.
 
The Don said:
Trump averages more gaffs in a week than Biden did in a year.

The xenophobic stuff he's saying now is probably just the tip of the iceberg when the heat of the campaign comes next spring-fall.
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It's absolute bat****, but what's more bat**** is that he can literally do no wrong.

He has insulted women, Muslims, Mexicans, former Presidents, war heroes ... and has literally not shown blood once.

This campaign cycle is re-writing many rule books.
 
Hawk said:
It's absolute bat****, but what's more bat**** is that he can literally do no wrong.

He has insulted women, Muslims, Mexicans, former Presidents, war heroes ... and has literally not shown blood once.

This campaign cycle is re-writing many rule books.
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Sometimes I think Trump could pull a Berlusconi. Again, not apples-to-apples because of Italy's parliamentary system, but maybe the totally unconventional and unapologetic works in 2016.
 
Read this article from a psychologist trying to explain the Trump phenomenon. Basically said a lot of Americans like people who talk big. They want to hear things like "I'm going to have the best team ever assembled to x and y." I buy it. Lot of people aren't interested in having to work hard for things to be able to accomplish them.
 
Glenn Kessler

You can tell how much conservatives care about religious freedom by the lengths they go to slur American Muslims.

Glenn Kessler @GlennKesslerWP
Column on Trump's discredited 9/11 claim updated with long-sought MTV video, which further demonstrates he's wrong.

http://wapo.st/1LuyRcA
 
Still demanding Obama's birth certificate

CUx6McwWsAAHHmz.jpg
 
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