2016 Presidential Primaries [ SUPER TUESDAY | 3-1-'16]

Oklahomahawk said:
Wouldn't this tend to help Cruz more than Trump? Now you guys know I don't think Cruz cares about religion at all (on a candidate level, I do not claim to know what he thinks about it on a personal level). I think it's a means to an end for him, period, but still when Americans who care about the religious stances of their politicians tag you as being "a man of faith" you can't really convince them otherwise. I would think this would help Cruz in SC though I hope not.
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You'd think so, but the nativist, anti-immigration sentiment is really strong here.
 
Oklahomahawk said:
Wouldn't this tend to help Cruz more than Trump? Now you guys know I don't think Cruz cares about religion at all (on a candidate level, I do not claim to know what he thinks about it on a personal level). I think it's a means to an end for him, period, but still when Americans who care about the religious stances of their politicians tag you as being "a man of faith" you can't really convince them otherwise. I would think this would help Cruz in SC though I hope not.
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I'm not sure I'd agree with that take on Cruz and religion. I actually think he is both a dye-in-the-wool politician and a Zionist Fundie. He's Jerry Falwell. And I think he is playing to those sorts in SC (and there are many) and disenchanted Carson voters. Rubio will play better to segments of Evangelicals (the less Dispensationalist inclined), Confessionalists (sort of my tribe), and conservative Mainliners (a demographic a bit larger than in Iowa) - he along with Kasich. Trump picks up the trailer-park crowd, and cross-over Ds.
 
BedellBrave said:
I'm not sure I'd agree with that take on Cruz and religion. I actually think he is both a dye-in-the-wool politician and a Zionist Fundie. He's Jerry Falwell. And I think he is playing to those sorts in SC (and there are many) and disenchanted Carson voters. Rubio will play better to segments of Evangelicals (the less Dispensationalist inclined), Confessionalists (sort of my tribe), and conservative Mainliners (a demographic a bit larger than in Iowa) - he along with Kasich. Trump picks up the trailer-park crowd, and cross-over Ds.
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Well to be fair I did try to separate the Cruz persona's use of religion as a weapon to secure votes and the Cruz the individual's actual stance on religious matters. I know some of the stuff I heard from him on the subject, but the stuff his father says about him, especially the prophetic stuff where Rafael is some sort of great end times leader that really scares the crap out of me. It reminds me directly of the former president of Iran thinking he was destined to bring about the arrival of the 12th Imam.

By the way, I may be right or I may be wrong about my take on politicians, but I can usually get a "read" on those people but I'm having trouble getting such a read on Rubio. I know he comes across a bit "not ready for prime time" at times but that really doesn't tell me everything I need or want to know. I believe Hawk doesn't care for him but I don't recall him saying why. What's your take (and anyone else here too) on Rubio?
 
BedellBrave said:
I'm not sure I'd agree with that take on Cruz and religion. I actually think he is both a dye-in-the-wool politician and a Zionist Fundie. He's Jerry Falwell. And I think he is playing to those sorts in SC (and there are many) and disenchanted Carson voters. Rubio will play better to segments of Evangelicals (the less Dispensationalist inclined), Confessionalists (sort of my tribe), and conservative Mainliners (a demographic a bit larger than in Iowa) - he along with Kasich. Trump picks up the trailer-park crowd, and cross-over Ds.
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I'm always interested and tend to give credence to your analysis of things religio-political. This bolded section, though. Wow. That's pretty harsh. And maybe a bit of wishful thinking, besides.
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm always interested and tend to give credence to your analysis of things religio-political. This bolded section, though. Wow. That's pretty harsh. And maybe a bit of wishful thinking, besides.
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It wasn't meant to be harsh actually. It's what I've been describing as "Lintheads" and "Crackers" in earlier posts. It's not meant so much as a pejorative as a descriptor of a lower economic strata throughout the South and Appalachia (and elsewhere) whose origins lie in the Scot-Irish immigrations and has always been at something of a conflict with high economic Anglo culture.

These sorts have the nativist, anti-immigration sentiments of which you speak and who, though, would claim to be Christians, have had an on/off relationship with it's ethical strictures (i.e., there's been an on-going Celtic temperament expressed, especially sexually). At times it has been soundly of the RR. But I think this is a time where that alliance is falling apart.

It's certainly populist in its economic - size of government thoughts.
 
Oklahomahawk said:
Well to be fair I did try to separate the Cruz persona's use of religion as a weapon to secure votes and the Cruz the individual's actual stance on religious matters. I know some of the stuff I heard from him on the subject, but the stuff his father says about him, especially the prophetic stuff where Rafael is some sort of great end times leader that really scares the crap out of me. It reminds me directly of the former president of Iran thinking he was destined to bring about the arrival of the 12th Imam.

By the way, I may be right or I may be wrong about my take on politicians, but I can usually get a "read" on those people but I'm having trouble getting such a read on Rubio. I know he comes across a bit "not ready for prime time" at times but that really doesn't tell me everything I need or want to know. I believe Hawk doesn't care for him but I don't recall him saying why. What's your take (and anyone else here too) on Rubio?
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He's GWB who actually comes across, in tone and style, a bit more like Obama. I actually like him because I think he's the less anti-immigrant of the bunch. I don't care for the Neo-con foreign policy though.
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm always interested and tend to give credence to your analysis of things religio-political. This bolded section, though. Wow. That's pretty harsh. And maybe a bit of wishful thinking, besides.
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P.S. I'll give you my Southern denominational-socio-economic-political ladder a bit latter. Got to run for now and do my job.
 
BedellBrave said:
It wasn't meant to be harsh actually. It's what I've been describing as "Lintheads" and "Crackers" in earlier posts. It's not meant so much as a pejorative as a descriptor of a lower economic strata throughout the South and Appalachia (and elsewhere) whose origins lie in the Scot-Irish immigrations and has always been at something of a conflict with high economic Anglo culture.
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I'd be interested to see some finer-grained demographic info on the turnout today. I think you're right that Trump is pulling support from that quarter, although I'm not sure how your analysis excludes their religious profile. I guess we'll have an idea about "crossover Dems" in the exit polling. I think that's a dead letter.
 
Julio3000 said:
Anybody got any SC predictions? I'll go:

Trump 26

Cruz 24

Rubio 22

Bush 11

Kasich 9

Carson 7

1% dropouts and write-ins

Cruz and Rubio could flip, and either could pull a statistical tie with Trump. Trump likely won't crack 30, as undecideds will mostly break for the senators. Carson will drop out and back Rubio.
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Trump - 30

Rubio - 24

Cruz - 21

Kasich - 10

Carson - 8

Bush - 7
 
I'm basing mine off what I see today in the Lowcountry. Trump's ground game here is remarkable. Rubio picked up some steam in recent days with Haley's endorsement. He might have won here easily if she had done it sooner. Cruz seems to be slipping a little. Maybe the liar label is starting to stick. Kasich will get a tiny bump from the big newspaper endorsements. Carson has a steady group of support, but no real push. Bush is slipping further.
 
The Don said:
Damn you really think Jeb is that bad. Even after mommy and brother stumped for him?
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I'm just not seeing it with him. I think some of the folks who might have voted for him could be swayed more by Haley and Scott.

I also think Carson has a few hardline supporters even though he isn't visible.
 
bravesnumberone said:
Trump - 30
Rubio - 24
Cruz - 21
Kasich - 10
Carson - 8
Bush - 7
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I wouldn't be at all surprised if you were right about Bush. I was also torn about putting Rubio as a strong second like that but at the end of the day, I just wasn't feeling it. Every bit of momentum he has is due to the folks stumping with him. I guess we'll see how persuasive they are.
 
Oklahomahawk said:
What's SC's overall "religious-osity" rating? I know Iowa's was supposed to be pretty high, I figure SC's is too because it's in the South. Shouldn't much of Cruz's support come from those who rank morals pretty high whereas Trump's support should come more from those who rank the economy as most important? Oh and will SC's geographic proximity to Florida help Rubio, since he can't really steal that much of Trump's thunder on the economy or Cruz's thunder from the moral voting block?

And what would Hillary's camp think if Bernie somehow won in SC? I'll bet her response would be picked up on the Doppler down there. Probably won't happen but it does go along with my theme of "Anybody but Cruz or Hillary".
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Well, I was at a church service last Sunday that Ted Cruz spoke at, and the preacher, a Cruz supporter, said he did not like Trump's profanity and liberalism and then went on to describe in graphic detail the process of partial-birth abortion. So there's a pretty strong religiosity but also huge military crowd. Like Aaron Harang huge.

Also it'd be curtains for Hillary if Bernie won here.
 
Julio3000 said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised if you were right about Bush. I was also torn about putting Rubio as a strong second like that but at the end of the day, I just wasn't feeling it. Every bit of momentum he has is due to the folks stumping with him. I guess we'll see how persuasive they are.
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Yeah, I'm only going off what I see down here around Hilton Head where there's a larger 30-50 year-old business crowd that would lean toward Rubio and a lot of retirees who are kind of splintered between the candidates. Kasich is enjoying support from all the Ohioans. Talked to one local Republican operative this morning who did some exit polling of about 500 people he's gonna give me at 7. Said the results are surprising, but not shocking. That would suggest to me Rubio doing better than expected.

One thing I noticed at the Trump event I covered the other night. A significant portion of the crowd was young people there for the spectacle of it more than anything.
 
I saw on RCP that one poll had 3500 likely voters polled with a slim margin of error so I'll just role with that one giving Rubio and Kasich most of the undecide vote:

Trump 34

Cruz 19

Rubio 19

Bush 12

Kasich 10

Carson 5
 
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