2016 Presidential Primaries [ SUPER TUESDAY | 3-1-'16]

bravesnumberone said:
Bernie needs to not get embarrassed in South Carolina, but then he's gotta get some wins on March 1. Clinton will be re-energized. On the flipside, Bernie made up a lot of ground in Nevada. If his message is getting out, it might be enough time for him to win some more states.
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But what states? MN maybe. Why in the world wasn't he doing more in Nevada?
 
Julio3000 said:
I'm not prepared to say that there are none. I can say, from personal experience, that the SC Democratic party has been winnowed to such a degree that that vote is inconsequential. There are no more yellow-(or blue, if you prefer) dog Democrats. The party, in my neck of the woods, is a familiar coalition of old hippies, young hippies, african-americans, so-called trial lawyers, and the ghost of organized labor. Those folks aren't going to cross the lines in significant numbers.
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Surely there are Dixiecrats still out there. I mean I'm in suburban Charlotte area and I can find them... Surely there are some in the shuttered textile towns. Maybe I'm wrong.
 
BedellBrave said:
I can't see how Bernie gets back the needed mojo. Any of you Ds see any road map for him to stay anywhere close?
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Nope. Said it before the primaries that Bernie would get rolled. His only hope is for a big super tuesday. I think he needs to go hit Texas, Virginia, Minnesota, and Georgia. I think he's already lost Mass. I know people up here think he'll do well becauseh e's from Vermont, but they don't realize how much old money is in Mass and they're the ones who hate Bernie the most. I think Bernie will take Colorado as I think his stuff plays really well there and that will be a big win for him. I think he needs to win 3 of the states I listed above as well as Colorado, Vermont (which should be a cakewalk)

But I just can't see him winning. He is gonna get crushed in 90% of the south, he's gonna get wrecked in most of the midwest. He shoudl do well in the rest of the west, aside from maybe Utah and Idaho. He needs to win big states. Most delegates up for grabs are California, New York, Texas, Florida nad Pennsylvania. I see him maybe playing well in Texas, but aside from that, He'll likely win California, but he's gonna lose NY, Florida and Penn to Clinton barring some huge endorsements or Hillary ****ups.
 
zitothebrave said:
Nope. Said it before the primaries that Bernie would get rolled. His only hope is for a big super tuesday. I think he needs to go hit Texas, Virginia, Minnesota, and Georgia. I think he's already lost Mass. I know people up here think he'll do well becauseh e's from Vermont, but they don't realize how much old money is in Mass and they're the ones who hate Bernie the most. I think Bernie will take Colorado as I think his stuff plays really well there and that will be a big win for him. I think he needs to win 3 of the states I listed above as well as Colorado, Vermont (which should be a cakewalk)

But I just can't see him winning. He is gonna get crushed in 90% of the south, he's gonna get wrecked in most of the midwest. He shoudl do well in the rest of the west, aside from maybe Utah and Idaho. He needs to win big states. Most delegates up for grabs are California, New York, Texas, Florida nad Pennsylvania. I see him maybe playing well in Texas, but aside from that, He'll likely win California, but he's gonna lose NY, Florida and Penn to Clinton barring some huge endorsements or Hillary ****ups.
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I can see him winning NH, Maine, Vermont, MN, CO, and NM. I'll be surprised if he wins CA. Barring indictment, the crown is hers.
 
BedellBrave said:
How? How do you see that playing out?
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Because almost every power broker and elected official with an R beside their name doesn't want Trump to be the nominee. And of that group, a strong majority is going to prefer Rubio to Cruz. Why? Because Rubio is (for some reason) less polarizing. Because he is more personable and more telegenic. Because he has a more positive message. Because he hasn't pooped on the the power structure of the party at every opportunity. Because he's trying to channel Reagan while Cruz is conjuring Pat Buchanan.

While I think it's kinda pathetic that Rubio couldn't parlay the support of so many local heavy hitters to any better than 22%, the fact that Nikki and Tim Scott and Trey Gowdy hitched themselves to his wagon is not insignificant. They're picking a long-term winner.
 
BedellBrave said:
I can see him winning NH, Maine, Vermont, MN, CO, and NM. I'll be surprised if he wins CA. Barring indictment, the crown is hers.
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I think he wins California. California is largely new money. New money is pretty Bernie friendly. Not as friendly as lower middle class of course, but certainly more friendly than old Money.

He'll also likely win Oregon and Washington as well as a few surprise MW states. Hillary is gonna ride Bill to the nomination, and not mind that someone else will be riding him in each state as well.
 
BedellBrave said:
Surely there are Dixiecrats still out there. I mean I'm in suburban Charlotte area and I can find them... Surely there are some in the shuttered textile towns. Maybe I'm wrong.
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No. SC has been, for the past few cycles, a one-party state. Blame yourselves for Trump. Exit polling data says that 82% of the primary voters describe themselves as conservative.

Again, I'm not saying that such a thing does not exist, but you might as well be hunting the unicorn.
 
Julio3000 said:
Because almost every power broker and elected official with an R beside their name doesn't want Trump to be the nominee. And of that group, a strong majority is going to prefer Rubio to Cruz. Why? Because Rubio is (for some reason) less polarizing. Because he is more personable and more telegenic. Because he has a more positive message. Because he hasn't pooped on the the power structure of the party at every opportunity. Because he's trying to channel Reagan while Cruz is conjuring Pat Buchanan.

While I think it's kinda pathetic that Rubio couldn't parlay the support of so many local heavy hitters to any better than 22%, the fact that Nikki and Tim Scott and Trey Gowdy hitched themselves to his wagon is not insignificant. They're picking a long-term winner.
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If Trump remains in the 30-35% range, I can't see him being beat. All the above I have thought, less so tonight. So long as both Cruz and Rubio stay in what actually stops Trump? Nothing he says has dented him. The cruder and more combative he becomes the more folk lap it up. They want to see that up against Hillary - and they are fools.

Oh and Pope Francis, keep your mouth shut. It's not helping...
 
Julio3000 said:
No. SC has been, for the past few cycles, a one-party state. Blame yourselves for Trump. Exit polling data says that 82% of the primary voters describe themselves as conservative.

Again, I'm not saying that such a thing does not exist, but you might as well be hunting the unicorn.
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Read conservative as "I hate Democrats." So, I think I'll share the blame for Trump with y'all. And Jerry Springer.
 
BedellBrave said:
If Trump remains in the 30-35% range, I can't see him being beat. All the above I have thought, less so tonight. So long as both Cruz and Rubio stay in what actually stops Trump? Nothing he says has dented him. The cruder and more combative he becomes the more folk lap it up. They want to see that up against Hillary - and they are fools.

Oh and Pope Francis, keep your mouth shut. It's not helping...
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Like I said, I was a little bit surprised to see him over 30%. Even at that, a lot more people voted against him than voted for him. Yes, I agree that if Cruz and Rubio both stay in, the path is a little more convoluted. Still, I trust that big money and big juice win in the end.

That being said, I admit that I find more than a little bit of schadenfreude in the fact that Republicans are getting, in so many ways, exactly what they've asked for. Want to fetishize private-sector success? Here's your guy. Want to demonize nuance and celebrate oafish consistency? Here's your guy. Want to play to the baser instincts of nativism and racism? Here's your guy.

Trump is exactly the candidate that the base in SC has been begging for, and is exactly what they deserve.
 
They are begging for someone to take it to the Ds like reality TV. They want a "fighter." And here's their bully to punch you guys in the nose. They are fools. Petulant fools.
 
BedellBrave said:
Just for Republican leaning voters:

Fundamentalist Baptist, Pentecostals - lower white economic class (Lintheads and small farmers) - the loosely connected to their churches will favor Trump, the more strongly connected likely with Cruz

Next rung - tons of Baptists, small Methodist churches, Pentecostals-Charismatics (think more Assembly of God types), non-denominational Evangelicals - 2000 s.f. homes and under - some college educated - some though lower numbers with Trump, lots for Cruz, some with Carson, some with Rubio, few with Kasich/Bush

Next rung - conservative town Baptist churches, larger non-denominational Evangelical churches, Confessional Presbyterians, Lutherans & Anglicans (some), more conservative-leaning but fairly small mainline churches - lots of college educated, lower level managerial folk, engineers, small business owners, etc. -- few for Trump, some for Cruz and Carson, lots for Rubio, good many for Kasich & Bush

Top rung - spire-town churches of various stripes, mainliners (PCUSA, UMC, ELCA, TEC, etc.), some Anglicans -- the wealthy of their communities, involved in social clubs, membership at the Country Club -- Trump gets the more racist of the bunch, few for Cruz or Carson, some for Rubio, Kasich and Bush's crowd
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That's probably about right. I'd perhaps question the strength of connection to church/Trump voters after tonight, but otherwise, yeah.
 
BedellBrave said:
If Trump can't be stopped, what is particularly galling from tonight then is that Hillary won. Looking a lot more likely that I won't vote for anyone on the top of the ticket.
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have to pick one , the most important job on the planet and going to sit it out ?
 
have never seen your candidate, who would you vote for ?

I haven't seen any (R) voters claim allegiance to any one candidate.

Any
Trump voters?
Cruz ?
Rubio?
 
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