2016 Steamer Projections--Braves Hitters

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Freeman .283/.374/.480 3.9 WAR
Simmons .262/.314/.370 3.1 WAR
Markakis .269/.340/.369 0.6 WAR
Olivera .260/.306/.395 0.9 WAR
Maybin .252/.313/.361 0.5 WAR
Peterson .240/.310/.331 0.4 WAR
Bourn .244//310/.328 0.3 WAR
Swisher .226/.313/.366 -0.3 WAR
Bethancourt .256/.287/.376 0.9 WAR
Garcia .266/.297/.397 0.2 WAR
Castro .258/.289/.340 -0.1 WAR
Ciriaco .244/.270/.327 -0.4 WAR
Terdoslavich .249/.312/.403 0.0 WAR
Perez .264/.307/.340 -0.1 WAR

The WAR projections are partly based on their assumptions regarding playing time and incorporate projections for defense.
 
One relatively cheap way to improve the offense is to be a bit more aggressive in taking advantage of platoon splits. There are opportunities in left and second, and even other positions. I don't want to oversell the effect. But every little bit helps.
 
nsacpi said:
One relatively cheap way to improve the offense is to be a bit more aggressive in taking advantage of platoon splits. There are opportunities in left and second, and even other positions. I don't want to oversell the effect. But every little bit helps.
Click to expand...

:FrediPuzzled:

"What's a platoon? Is that like, when you run a player out there one day, and then another one the next day? Does it work, tell me more about it, because I think, I mean, I believe I've been doing this for sometime, more I think about it, I think I came up with it. You know, try to give everyone a chance, give them an at bat here and there, a start or 2 to get them going."
 
We really have to hope those projections on Olivera and Markakis end up being way off. Because if not, it doesn't really matter who else we add in the offseason.
 
nsacpi said:
Freeman .283/.374/.480 3.9 WAR
Simmons .262/.314/.370 3.1 WAR
Markakis .269/.340/.369 0.6 WAR
Olivera .260/.306/.395 0.9 WAR
Maybin .252/.313/.361 0.5 WAR
Peterson .240/.310/.331 0.4 WAR
Bourn .244//310/.328 0.3 WAR
Swisher .226/.313/.366 -0.3 WAR
Bethancourt .256/.287/.376 0.9 WAR
Garcia .266/.297/.397 0.2 WAR
Castro .258/.289/.340 -0.1 WAR
Ciriaco .244/.270/.327 -0.4 WAR
Terdoslavich .249/.312/.403 0.0 WAR
Perez .264/.307/.340 -0.1 WAR

The WAR projections are partly based on their assumptions regarding playing time and incorporate projections for defense.
Click to expand...

I think we will see an uptick in power from Markakis (.400+ SLG), and Olivera better be closer to an .800 OPS than that predicted .700 OPS or the Braves are going to be in serious trouble.

The rest looks about right. The team needs to add one more hitter in LF to have a real chance at pushing .500 next year.
 
The projection for Markakis has an uptick in ISO but regression in BABIP.
Enscheff said:
I think we will see an uptick in power from Markakis (.400+ SLG), and Olivera better be closer to an .800 OPS than that predicted .700 OPS or the Braves are going to be in serious trouble.

The rest looks about right. The team needs to add one more hitter in LF to have a real chance at pushing .500 next year.
Click to expand...
 
nsacpi said:
The projection for Markakis has an uptick in ISO but regression in BABIP.
Click to expand...

It's predicting Markakis puts up the worst BA of his career, and the second worst OBP and SLG of his career. I find that extremely unlikely.

I expect a .290/.350/.400 line from him, maybe a little more OBP and a little less SLG. And I would be shocked if he didn't hit 10-15 HRs.
 
Enscheff said:
It's predicting Markakis puts up the worst BA of his career, and the second worst OBP and SLG of his career. I find that extremely unlikely.

I expect a .290/.350/.400 line from him, maybe a little more OBP and a little less SLG. And I would be shocked if he didn't hit 10-15 HRs.
Click to expand...

I think the model gives weight to the last three years of data and sees 2015 as a bit of an aberration (low ISO, high BABIP) relative to 2013 and 2014.

So if you look at the projections by component:

BABIP from 2013-2015: 291, .299 and .338. 2016 projection: .298. So clearly here the model is heavily discounting that .338.

Batting average: .271, .276, .296. 2016 projection: .269. Same thing in terms of heavily discounting the 2015 numbers and overlaying an aging curve to the 2013-2014 numbers.

OBP: .329, .340, .370. 2016 projection .342

ISO: .085, .111, .080. 2016 projection .099

Walk rate: 7.9, 8.7, 10.2. Projection 9.3%

Strikeout rate: 10.9, 11.8, 12.1. Projection 12.5

I think the most "controversial" part of the above is the BABIP projection. But of ISO, walk rate and strikeout rate, BABIP is the slowest to stabilize. Or in other words, the one that a year's worth of data is most likely to be flukish. I think he would need a BABIP in the .320-.330 range to hit the .290 batting average you are projecting. The slow upward trend in the strikeout rate is fairly typical of a player his age, so it makes sense for the model to extend the trend. Of course, as your strikeout rate rises you need better BABIP and ISO numbers to maintain the same slash statistics.
 
Pardon me if I join the scoutheads when they yawn. 2015 Steamer Projections for Kansas City (with actual totals)...

Alex Gordon - .272/.347/.434 (.271/.377/.434)
Salvador Perez - .277/.312/.477 (.260/.280/.426)
Lorenzo Cain - .269/.318/.380 (.307/.361/.477)
Mike Moustakas - .252/.309/.418 (.284/.348/.470)
Eric Hosmer - .280/.341/.440 (.297/.363/.459)
Alcides Escobar - .261/.296/.348 (.257/.293/.320)

Looks to me like the projections were fairly close on two players (Gordon and Escobar) while significantly missing on the other four (both high and low).

Wonder which 33% of the Braves' projections will be close?
 
I don't think anybody has really put much stock in Steamer numbers .... well, ever .... but interesting food for thought in these early no news days of the off-season I suppose.
 
clvclv said:
Pardon me if I join the scoutheads when they yawn. 2015 Steamer Projections for Kansas City (with actual totals)...

Alex Gordon - .272/.347/.434 (.271/.377/.434)

Salvador Perez - .277/.312/.477 (.260/.280/.426)

Lorenzo Cain - .269/.318/.380 (.307/.361/.477)

Mike Moustakas - .252/.309/.418 (.284/.348/.470)

Eric Hosmer - .280/.341/.440 (.297/.363/.459)

Alcides Escobar - .261/.296/.348 (.257/.293/.320)

Looks to me like the projections were fairly close on two players (Gordon and Escobar) while significantly missing on the other four (both high and low).

Wonder which 33% of the Braves' projections will be close?
Click to expand...

Projections are never 100% but that doesn't mean they aren't useful. Cain had a braek out year. I'm sure everyone saw that coming. Of the Braves hitters projections. I see Olivera being the main guy to really beat those numbers. The rest of them? Not so much. Fluke years do happen though and the Braves are going to need them to be a better offense.
 
I think those might be close. I am sure the FO and fans are hoping HO exceeds those numbers. I think Maybin is moved this offseason and our offense is subjected to more torture with Bourn and Swisher getting a lot of playing time to hopefully build value as rental type deals at the deadline. I hope Simmons and Jace can have better years offensively but I won't hold my breath just yet on that. I have no idea what there plan for catcher is, but as long as Frediot is manager, CB has no chance to play.
 
Enscheff said:
I think we will see an uptick in power from Markakis (.400+ SLG), and Olivera better be closer to an .800 OPS than that predicted .700 OPS or the Braves are going to be in serious trouble.

The rest looks about right. The team needs to add one more hitter in LF to have a real chance at pushing .500 next year.
Click to expand...

Markakis almost certainly won't have that level of power. He hasn't had a .400 SLG since 2012 inorder to get to that level he's have to have his SLG closer to 2014 but with his insane BABIP in 2015, Don't consider it super likely.
 
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