2017 Winter Meetings Predictions, Rumors, And Actual Happenings

[striker42]

It's a fair point, but I disagree - at least partially.

I definitely agree he's being cautious, but I'm not so sure it's because he doesn't know enough about who to trade. I'm of the belief that he's simply developed a small "all-but-untouchable list", and those are the only players anyone has tried to deal for just yet. I'm also willing to bet that Freddie and Acuna are on a list by themselves and actually ARE untouchable at this point following Coppygate, they likely can't be moved if you expect to keep the fanbase (such that it is). That all-but-untouchable list probably includes Ender, Gohara, Albies, Wright, Soroka, and possibly Riley - those guys are probably ONLY available in franchise-altering deals (for an established, inexpensive "Ace" like Archer or Fulmer or another face-of-the-franchise player like Machado or Donaldson). I could see Ender being moved if it were a slam-dunk "win" involving multiple pieces (say Happ and Almora or Fisher or Tucker and Moran or Davis), but I don't think any of the other guys are available otherwise.

Given the fact that I think they're sold on Riley, I still scratch my head over missing out on the chance to get Headley, but I think they plan to turn some of these young arms into RPs (maybe Newcomb, Fried, and Touki - possibly even all 3) and build a dominant pen on the cheap rather than use them in trades or pay market value for the pen help that's out there.

Check the chat that J. J. Cooper had with Fox Sports South yesterday on Twitter - it's well worth 9 minutes out of your day.

The stuff about AA being cautious because he doesn't know our prospects fully yet comes directly from AA. He's talked about how he doesn't know which guys might be overvalued in the market and which might be undervalued so he's very hesitant to deal from our minor league depth.

It all adds up to make for a very, very slow offseason.

 

[clvclv]

The stuff about AA being cautious because he doesn't know our prospects fully yet comes directly from AA. He's talked about how he doesn't know which guys might be overvalued in the market and which might be undervalued so he's very hesitant to deal from our minor league depth.

It all adds up to make for a very, very slow offseason.

I'm not saying it didn't - we've all seen the quotes.

The point is EVERYBODY in baseball knows the names I mentioned - even if you're not part of the Braves' organization. They wouldn't trade any of those guys unless it was in part of a HUGE deal, and (other than the Ozuna trade) those simply haven't happened yet. Archer, Fulmer, Machado, Donaldson, and Yelich are all still out there. We had no use for Dee Gordon, Kinsler, or most of the other names that have been moved thus far - even including Piscotty (unless you're expecting a big rebound from him) this year. The fact that he's taking more time to learn a bit more about the Wentzes, Paches, Mullers, Toussaints, and Jacksons only makes sense - what kind of return would you expect to get if you were trading them - even if some of them happened to be guys you eventually wish you hadn't traded?

Moving one of them in a deal for Headley or a few of them for Headley and Hand could make some sense if you're shooting for 85-ish wins in 2018, but if your focus is more on 2019 we haven't exactly missed out on anything much at this point.

 

[clvclv]

Twins sign Rodney.

 

[Southcack77]

The only real missed opportunity I see is the Braves not having figured out a way to get a prospect for taking on Headley. But if they have other plans for 3B or for spending money, I guess that might not have made a great deal of sense for them.

I don't care about not having given three year overpays to non-closer relievers. That's something you do when you think you are close and the Braves are not close.

I actually don't care about Yelich. If you sign him you've pictured yourself either playing him in LF or trading Inciarte or Acuna. I'm cool with trading Inciarte if it helps you elsewhere.

What they do with that cash is interesting. I would keep Markakis and eat as much of Kemp to get him off the roster as I had to.

Take another season to look at what you really have at SS, 2B, Acuna, and the young starters. Make plans accordingly.

Once market settles see what is a value and sign it or trade for it.

 

[Enscheff]

The only real missed opportunity I see is the Braves not having figured out a way to get a prospect for taking on Headley. But if they have other plans for 3B or for spending money, I guess that might not have made a great deal of sense for them.

I don't care about not having given three year overpays to non-closer relievers. That's something you do when you think you are close and the Braves are not close.

I actually don't care about Yelich. If you sign him you've pictured yourself either playing him in LF or trading Inciarte or Acuna. I'm cool with trading Inciarte if it helps you elsewhere.

What they do with that cash is interesting. I would keep Markakis and eat as much of Kemp to get him off the roster as I had to.

Take another season to look at what you really have at SS, 2B, Acuna, and the young starters. Make plans accordingly.

Once market settles see what is a value and sign it or trade for it.

I would say not getting Piscotty for a couple FV 40 warm bodies is also a missed opportunity.

Or does AA have big plans for LF as well?

 

[NYCBrave]

I would say not getting Piscotty for a couple FV 40 warm bodies is also a missed opportunity.

Or does AA have big plans for LF as well?

Piscotty requested to be traded near his home so he could be near his ailing mother. Did you miss that a few pages back?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The only real missed opportunity I see is the Braves not having figured out a way to get a prospect for taking on Headley. But if they have other plans for 3B or for spending money, I guess that might not have made a great deal of sense for them.

I don't care about not having given three year overpays to non-closer relievers. That's something you do when you think you are close and the Braves are not close.

I actually don't care about Yelich. If you sign him you've pictured yourself either playing him in LF or trading Inciarte or Acuna. I'm cool with trading Inciarte if it helps you elsewhere.

What they do with that cash is interesting. I would keep Markakis and eat as much of Kemp to get him off the roster as I had to.

Take another season to look at what you really have at SS, 2B, Acuna, and the young starters. Make plans accordingly.

Once market settles see what is a value and sign it or trade for it.

How do you reconcile the two bolded statements above? You're saying pay what you have to pay to get rid of Kemp (which will likely be $30M 15/15) even though the team isn't going to compete. Even if you save 3-5M per year what do you do with it? The Braves have that $3-$5M available to spend now, but aren't spending it. It's not like they need a last little bit to be able to make a significant signing.

I see all these thread responses where people don't want to trade Teheran because his value is low and he might bounce back. Then many of the same people essentially want to cut Kemp and eat his salary even though they admit that 2018 is another lost season. Will Kemp bounce back? 99% no. But, if he hits well you might be able to move him for less of a loss to a team that needs a DH at the deadline. And, even if you don't move him, the Braves will pay somebody to stand in LF for 2018. Sure, sure, Acuna is close to ready but almost everyone agrees that he should start the year in AAA for ST reasons if no other. Then you have an aging RF too.

To me, the smart thing would be to hang on to Kemp (unless you get a great opportunity to move almost all his contract), have him learn 1B in spring if possible to increase his value and allow him to spell Freeman if Freddie gets hurt or needs a day off and be willing to pull the trigger to move him at the first opportunity if/when it presents itself.

Paying players not to play makes no sense if you are a rebuilding team because you have to pay someone else to play in the cut player's place.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The missed opportunity of the offseason is that the Braves aren't taking advantage of the good chances that they have.

I've been saying for 6 months that the Marlins would be ripe for the picking this offseason with good players acquired at a discount simply because the new ownerships #1 goal is to get payroll under control to a certain level. They actually said several months back that they would like to get payroll to the $70-$80M mark. Since then I've heard it may be as low as $55M. If they did nothing this offseason their payroll was going to be north of $140M, so they were looking to cut their payroll in half.

I thought the Braves would try to be in on the Stanton sweepstakes because he would be cheap to get (turned out right) and that he would be the kind of splash move the FO needed to get fans into the new park in 2018. The whole HartCoppy fiasco ended that pretty convincingly. It was probably ended before that because the young pitching didn't develop fast enough to be able to sell Stanton on the idea that the team was on the verge of a long window of being competitive and also that the attendance was below expectations leading to a more shaky financial commitment from Liberty moving forward.

But take Stanton off the table. The Braves didn't play on Ozuna. Could they have? If the Braves had agreed to take back Tazawa and Prado in a deal for Ozuna do you think the fish would have still chosen to deal with the Cards? The Braves could have turned around and dealt Ozuna to the Cards essentially buying prospects by taking on bad contracts from the Fish (but still potentially filling 2018 needs).

The Braves haven't tried to play on Headley. They should have tried to bundle Headley and Frazier to knock the prospect cost down to get Frazier back. Didn't do it.

They've missed opportunities to go after upside FA guys.

Essentially they've done nothing. AA, so far, is counting on improvement of the team for 2018 and beyond to be purely organic.

 

[msstate7]

So, we standing pat or what?

 

[Enscheff]

The missed opportunity of the offseason is that the Braves aren't taking advantage of the good chances that they have.

I've been saying for 6 months that the Marlins would be ripe for the picking this offseason with good players acquired at a discount simply because the new ownerships #1 goal is to get payroll under control to a certain level. They actually said several months back that they would like to get payroll to the $70-$80M mark. Since then I've heard it may be as low as $55M. If they did nothing this offseason their payroll was going to be north of $140M, so they were looking to cut their payroll in half.

I thought the Braves would try to be in on the Stanton sweepstakes because he would be cheap to get (turned out right) and that he would be the kind of splash move the FO needed to get fans into the new park in 2018. The whole HartCoppy fiasco ended that pretty convincingly. It was probably ended before that because the young pitching didn't develop fast enough to be able to sell Stanton on the idea that the team was on the verge of a long window of being competitive and also that the attendance was below expectations leading to a more shaky financial commitment from Liberty moving forward.

But take Stanton off the table. The Braves didn't play on Ozuna. Could they have? If the Braves had agreed to take back Tazawa and Prado in a deal for Ozuna do you think the fish would have still chosen to deal with the Cards? The Braves could have turned around and dealt Ozuna to the Cards essentially buying prospects by taking on bad contracts from the Fish (but still potentially filling 2018 needs).

The Braves haven't tried to play on Headley. They should have tried to bundle Headley and Frazier to knock the prospect cost down to get Frazier back. Didn't do it.

They've missed opportunities to go after upside FA guys.

Essentially they've done nothing. AA, so far, is counting on improvement of the team for 2018 and beyond to be purely organic.

I really like the Frazier plus Headley idea. That would have made a lot of sense.

I'm afraid AA is relying on organic improvement because he has no other choice. I still haven't seen any actions that provide any indication the Braves won't be severely hampered by payroll constraints in 2018.

Not being interested in Headley, who was given away, when they expressly stated they wanted a 1 year placeholder at 3B is mind boggling.

 

[Chico]

The missed opportunity of the offseason is that the Braves aren't taking advantage of the good chances that they have.

I've been saying for 6 months that the Marlins would be ripe for the picking this offseason with good players acquired at a discount simply because the new ownerships #1 goal is to get payroll under control to a certain level. They actually said several months back that they would like to get payroll to the $70-$80M mark. Since then I've heard it may be as low as $55M. If they did nothing this offseason their payroll was going to be north of $140M, so they were looking to cut their payroll in half.

I thought the Braves would try to be in on the Stanton sweepstakes because he would be cheap to get (turned out right) and that he would be the kind of splash move the FO needed to get fans into the new park in 2018. The whole HartCoppy fiasco ended that pretty convincingly. It was probably ended before that because the young pitching didn't develop fast enough to be able to sell Stanton on the idea that the team was on the verge of a long window of being competitive and also that the attendance was below expectations leading to a more shaky financial commitment from Liberty moving forward.

But take Stanton off the table. The Braves didn't play on Ozuna. Could they have? If the Braves had agreed to take back Tazawa and Prado in a deal for Ozuna do you think the fish would have still chosen to deal with the Cards? The Braves could have turned around and dealt Ozuna to the Cards essentially buying prospects by taking on bad contracts from the Fish (but still potentially filling 2018 needs).

The Braves haven't tried to play on Headley. They should have tried to bundle Headley and Frazier to knock the prospect cost down to get Frazier back. Didn't do it.

They've missed opportunities to go after upside FA guys.

Essentially they've done nothing. AA, so far, is counting on improvement of the team for 2018 and beyond to be purely organic.

There are a lot of assumptions in here. You're assuming the Fish wanted to get rid of salaries more than get prospects back. You're assuming the Yankees would bundle Headley and Frazier and not get retail value in trade for Frazier when they could have just given him away like they did with the Padres and still have Frazier to trade in another package and get full value for.

 

[striker42]

So, we standing pat or what?

Plenty of offseason left but it looks like we're leaving the Winter Meetings with nothing but a Rule 5 pick. We got another week where we could see moves and then things will shut down until after the New Year.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we do nothing more exciting this offseason than sign a veteran number 5 starter.

 

[Enscheff]

There are a lot of assumptions in here. You're assuming the Fish wanted to get rid of salaries more than get prospects back. You're assuming the Yankees would bundle Headley and Frazier and not get retail value in trade for Frazier when they could have just given him away like they did with the Padres and still have Frazier to trade in another package and get full value for.

So how do you explain not being in on Headley when he was given away, a day after they explicitly stated they were looking for a 1 year stop gap at 3B?

There are 3 possibilities:

1. The Braves don't have the cash to take on Headley
2. The Braves didn't perform due diligence to find out Headley was available
3. The Braves have another plan to fill 3B for 1 year that is better than Headley

So which is it?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I really like the Frazier plus Headley idea. That would have made a lot of sense.

I'm afraid AA is relying on organic improvement because he has no other choice. I still haven't seen any actions that provide any indication the Braves won't be severely hampered by payroll constraints in 2018.

Not being interested in Headley, who was given away, when they expressly stated they wanted a 1 year placeholder at 3B is mind boggling.

I think you are right about the payroll. Honestly, the whole idea of AA being immobilized because he doesn't know the system is pretty thin. How is he going to know the system a year from now? Is he going to see every prospect in person and make his own evaluation? Of course not. He's going to rely on the internal scouting reports that he has coming to him, largely the same ones he has available today.

It doesn't take a genius to see what the team needs: 3B, LF or RF, a couple of pen arms, a SP or two.

Where a GM make their money is to look at the team and decide on timing: is now the time or not. When you immobilize yourself to indecision on those points you have made the decision by default.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

There are a lot of assumptions in here. You're assuming the Fish wanted to get rid of salaries more than get prospects back. You're assuming the Yankees would bundle Headley and Frazier and not get retail value in trade for Frazier when they could have just given him away like they did with the Padres and still have Frazier to trade in another package and get full value for.

The Fish obviously wanted to get rid of salary more than get prospects back, else they wouldn't have moved Stanton and Gordon. Even the return that they got back from StL was extremely underwhelming. Look at what the WS got for their guys then what the Fish got for theirs and tell me that money was not the overriding factor.

As for Headley and Frazier, the Pads essentially got Headley for nothing. The Braves wouldn't have gotten Headley AND Frazier for nothing. But, if they could have gotten Headley AND Frazier for a bit less than what it would cost to get Frazier alone, it's a win. Simple.

 

[Enscheff]

The Fish obviously wanted to get rid of salary more than get prospects back, else they wouldn't have moved Stanton and Gordon. Even the return that they got back from StL was extremely underwhelming. Look at what the WS got for their guys then what the Fish got for theirs and tell me that money was not the overriding factor.

As for Headley and Frazier, the Pads essentially got Headley for nothing. The Braves wouldn't have gotten Headley AND Frazier for nothing. But, if they could have gotten Headley AND Frazier for a bit less than what it would cost to get Frazier alone, it's a win. Simple.

The Yankees are looking for a cheap #5 SP. The Braves could have given them that for Headley/Frazier.

 

[Chico]

So how do you explain not being in on Headley when he was given away, a day after they explicitly stated they were looking for a 1 year stop gap at 3B?

There are 3 possibilities:

1. The Braves don't have the cash to take on Headley
2. The Braves didn't perform due diligence to find out Headley was available
3. The Braves have another plan to fill 3B for 1 year that is better than Headley

So which is it?

My first thought is the 1 year stopgap is BS. My 2nd thought is Headley had a down defensive year and his highest BABIP since 2012. If his Defense continues to trend down and his BABIP goes back to normal next year he's not much more valuable than Camargo. So if I had to guess I'd say #3

 

[Chico]

The Fish obviously wanted to get rid of salary more than get prospects back, else they wouldn't have moved Stanton and Gordon. Even the return that they got back from StL was extremely underwhelming. Look at what the WS got for their guys then what the Fish got for theirs and tell me that money was not the overriding factor.

As for Headley and Frazier, the Pads essentially got Headley for nothing. The Braves wouldn't have gotten Headley AND Frazier for nothing. But, if they could have gotten Headley AND Frazier for a bit less than what it would cost to get Frazier alone, it's a win. Simple.

They released Volquez. If they were more interested in salary dump post Gordon/Stanton tardes they would have made St Louis take on Volquez contract and settle for lesser prospects in return.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

They released Volquez. If they were more interested in salary dump post Gordon/Stanton tardes they would have made St Louis take on Volquez contract and settle for lesser prospects in return.

No one was taking Volquez under any circumstances because he will miss ALL of 2018 with TJ.

 

[Chico]

No one was taking Volquez under any circumstances because he will miss ALL of 2018 with TJ.

But if you're saying they were more worried about shedding salary than they were getting prospects back than they would have made the Cards take on that $13m and settled for lesser prospects. Also the Cards need relievers, why didn't the Marlins make them take on Ziegler and his $9M or Tazawa and his $7M or both and settle for a lesser prospect package? It's because as much as they want to shed payroll they also don't want a lesser prospect package to do so.