striker42
Well-known member
The bad result is losing a draft spot and a year of development.
2018 DRAFT LIST AND SIGNINGS
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
The bad result is losing a draft spot and a year of development.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
The last part will be negated if the pick in 2019 is spent on a college hitter, which the sheer volume of hitting prospects might indicate.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
AA's yearend bonus check just inflated.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
Also heard a great conspiracy theory judge for yourself....
If the Braves sign a big-ticket free agent next year, they will lose either their second or third-highest draft pick, depending on a couple of benchmarks. A top 10 pick cannot be touched no matter who you sign. The Braves could rationalize that they stole a No. 1 pick in Jenista, and most assess this draft as overall pretty strong. But even if the Braves sign TWO big $$$ free agents next year, they will still have No. 9 instead of a long, long wait to make any kind of pick.
If the Braves sign a big-ticket free agent next year, they will lose either their second or third-highest draft pick, depending on a couple of benchmarks. A top 10 pick cannot be touched no matter who you sign. The Braves could rationalize that they stole a No. 1 pick in Jenista, and most assess this draft as overall pretty strong. But even if the Braves sign TWO big $$$ free agents next year, they will still have No. 9 instead of a long, long wait to make any kind of pick.
So instead of having a player from the top of a strong draft already in the system for a complete season, they would prefer to have a top pick later?
Let’s call that logic...unsound.
Stewart was injured and they didn’t know until after the draft. It’s really that simple.
striker42
Well-known member
You're still relying on there being a college hitter we like who is available at 9. Even with there looking to be more college hitters next year, that's still a big risk.
Also, I'd you're limiting yourself to college hitters you're moving away from BPA.
There's a lot of uncertainty which isn't good either.
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Haha...wouldn't that be something if they are actually doing this. I think the problem is there is no guarantee they are going to sign a big free agent.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
It’s a message board so I get we have to debate everything. I can see disagreement and concern.
I do not understand the f grades and building jumping.
The braves are cheap but not so cheap they’d let 2 million ruin this deal If the injury wasn’t a big concern
They agreed pre physical to pay 4 million. They were planning on doing that.
They had to have a really good reason to stick to the minimum offer.
I do not understand the f grades and building jumping.
The braves are cheap but not so cheap they’d let 2 million ruin this deal If the injury wasn’t a big concern
They agreed pre physical to pay 4 million. They were planning on doing that.
They had to have a really good reason to stick to the minimum offer.
1 draft spot at the back end of the top 10 doesn't really matter. A year of development can easily be negated by picking a college player if they are the BPA.
Occam's razor applies here
striker42
Well-known member
One spot in the top 10 can be a huge difference. It's not always but there are plenty of times where the guy a team really wants goes one pick earlier.
And you're gambling that a college player will be the BPA. Another thing not guaranteed.
Ultimately, there are a dozen ways we could be hurt by this. Maybe it turns out okay or even better but this is not something teams want to do.
You are right that it's not the optimal solution. I just don't think it's that big of a deal. Especially when you consider that the Stewart injury seems significant enough for the Braves to offer around the minimum. Having the draft pick go to the end of the 1st round or lose it completely is what I would consider a failure. Just moving 1 pick down in the following draft just isn't a big concern to me.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
there are no guarantees...none about Stewart...none about next year's #9 pick, who ever he turns about to be
striker42
Well-known member
This has always been the most likely true. But it's also the most boring (the truth is usually boring).
My personal conspiracy theory is that the Braves wanted to sign Stewart way under slot so they could use the money to sign other picks (Hess). To do this they looked for the first hint of injuy they could find, his wrist, and tried to use it as an excuse to offer him way less. They probably thought an 18 year old kid would jump at 2-3 million rather than take a chance on the draft again. They were wrong.
However, the Braves decided that it would be better in the long run to stick to their guns. If they blinked now then agents would know they would blink in the future. So they felt it was better to miss out on Stewart and take the 9th pick next year.
This fits with AAs letting picks walk in Toronto.
But this is still unlikely. It's just more fun than the truth.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
my personal theory is that AA is with Opus Dei and Stewart's agent is with the Illuminati and they you know don't get along
SJ24
Well-known member
Correct.
You realize all this hand-wringing is beyond useless, right?
They haven't the slightest clue who (or what) will be available at #9 next June - and certainly aren't making plans based on who they think that player might be. All these theories (not just yours) are pretty laughable. You've seen how much draft boards change in the span of a couple weeks when May rolls around every year - thinking that they've got ANY particular target in mind 11 months ahead of the next draft is nuts.
They picked a kid at #8 with a lot of upside WITHOUT the knowledge that he was hiding an injury. Thankfully the medical staff caught it and warned them that it was a bigger issue than they originally thought. They offered enough money to make sure they got a replacement pick in case things didn't work out (and would have been perfectly happy to sign him if he'd take it), but not so much that they'd have simply been throwing that money away if the injury caused the kid to flame out completely and Stewart passed. This is one of those times when things really are what they seem.
I hope it works out for him, I honestly do. There's no way I'd have passed - if the injury isn't serious, I'd eventually get that couple million back in a few years when I got to the bigs. If he goes to JuCo and something happens (whether related to this particular injury or not), he just *issed away seriously life-changing money.
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striker42
Well-known member
The discussion grew out of grading the draft, something that's fairly useless in and of itself.
Who knows what happens next year. My only point is that drafting a guy at 8 who ends up not signing is a very bad result. Dropping to 9 next year combined with all kinds of uncertainty is not good.
If Stewart was healthy and signed, the draft was an A+. With Stewart not signing it drops to an F in my mind.
At this point, it is what it is. We can spend the next year wringing our hands because the Braves might have made a mistake, or we can look for ways that this could turn out well. I am a Braves fan. Spending the next year calling them stupid is.... well, stupid.
There are ways this could work in their favor. We won't know for a year. In the meantime there is a lot of baseball going on.
We did well to get the players we did and not have the #1 or #3 picks. I’m not a Beck fan, but still good value at #4.
It sets us up to possibly have another “2015” type draft. We will have a much bigger bonus pool that gives us a great chance.
Am I glad....no. Still sucks and I bet the Braves scouts aren’t happy to put in the amount of work they did and have only to have to start over.
It’s definitely not the end of the world though and makes next year’s draft MUCH more exciting than I was going to be.
It sets us up to possibly have another “2015” type draft. We will have a much bigger bonus pool that gives us a great chance.
Am I glad....no. Still sucks and I bet the Braves scouts aren’t happy to put in the amount of work they did and have only to have to start over.
It’s definitely not the end of the world though and makes next year’s draft MUCH more exciting than I was going to be.