2018: The Year Of The Venezuelan Trout

I think we maybe could've signed him, tho. Just didn't want to.

I doubt they could of signed him to the contract he was wanting. The Braves have had roughly the same payroll for 20 years. Until things change I'm going to assume it will always be the case we will have one big contract on the roster and the rest need to be pre-FA guys or players on team friendly deals. Whether Acuna is that big contract guy remains to be seen.
 
I think we maybe could've signed him, tho. Just didn't want to.

Acuna and Albies were not first round picks. They signed for very little money.

We need to extend them. Not cheap extension. Not trying to take advantage. But a good extension for both.

IMO they should stop with the stupid graduated salary thing. It's worth money to the player to get the money upfront and invest/change lifestyle.
 
Acuna and Albies were not first round picks. They signed for very little money.

We need to extend them. Not cheap extension. Not trying to take advantage. But a good extension for both.

IMO they should stop with the stupid graduated salary thing. It's worth money to the player to get the money upfront and invest/change lifestyle.

What would it take for an extension to be fair on both sides? If we could sign Acuna to an 8 year 80 million dollar contract right now structured as 3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17 should we do that? Would he accept that? Would it be fair for both sides? I know virtually nothing about players signing before they ever took the field. Its very difficult for me to value them. Is it possible that it would take more or less? I'm not sure.
 
What would it take for an extension to be fair on both sides? If we could sign Acuna to an 8 year 80 million dollar contract right now structured as 3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17 should we do that? Would he accept that? Would it be fair for both sides? I know virtually nothing about players signing before they ever took the field. Its very difficult for me to value them. Is it possible that it would take more or less? I'm not sure.

Actually reading this back, I think it would probably take more. Maybe an 8 year 100 million contract structured as 4/6/8/10/12/15/20/25 or something along those lines. In all honesty I'm just shooting from the hip on this.
 
Who is RA,Jr's agent? Is it Boras?? If Boras is his agent, we should enjoy what playing time we get from RA,Jr. I seriously doubt that Boras will allow any kind of contract that reduces the chance of BIG contract after Arby expires and Arby years will cost more than normal.
 
What's the point of dragging Heyward through the mud at this point? You're right, this thread has largely been unbearable to read, so don't take it too personally. If Jason Heyward himself was the one to make that post, I would have called him a troll.

Literally not one human on earth thinks the Heyward contract has worked out. It is literally impossible for a statistician to justify its merits emprically, unless they were to arbitrarily assign an enormous value to his leadership. Stat nerds tend to not like the unquantifiable though (to our fault, IMO).

I studied operations research and consider myself a well-trained statistician. Its my education that's taught me that perfect decision making (and even perfect decision making processes) are simply unattainable. If we knew how to perfectly model risk, the fields of finance and statistics would cease to matter. So when you find yourself turned off by the smarm from some of our resident statisticians, recognize that half the time my eyes are rolling to the back of my head just as much yours are I'm sure.

With that said, I don't understand how you can both acknowledge the obviousness that Acuna needs to be sent down, yet reject the discussion of why he needs to be sent down. Of course its not a given he's going to become an elite player that demands $30 million dollar salary. But trying to understand the potential cost of those extra few weeks of seasoning is absolutely relevant to intelligent baseball discussion and if this bothers you then I think you should avoid participating because its, at worst, inoffensive, and, at best, thought provoking.

The reasoning behind his demotion is as obvious as the noses on our faces - yet the fact that the loophole exists is the reason many can't stand the discussion. I think we all pretty much agree on that in general.

Joel Sherman had a really good take on the situation when he and Brian Kenny were discussing it last night on MLB Tonight. His point was that the situation - while not originally as big a problem - fits as a "best interests of the game" topic, and that the Commissioner should step in. The fact that guys like Bryant (before) and Acuna (now) are having this game played with their clocks is a terrible black eye for the game. I can't say that many of us would disagree. Part of the Commissioner's job is to try to create the scenario that the 750 players that are on MLB rosters (discounting injury issues) are the absolute best players in the world. Not only does this loophole keep that from happening, it goes so far as to keep players out who are arguably Top 25-50 players in the game.

The reason so many "fans" rather than "stat nerds" take issue with it has nothing to do with it being the correct choice from a business or statistical standpoint, and you guys have certainly helped some who haven't been able to grasp that to understand. The fact that it's the correct decision on that level doesn't do anything to appease fans who feel they're being cheated when teams INTENTIONALLY rob them of the opportunities to see the best players play the game when they spend their hard-earned money for a ticket to attend.

Sooner or later, fans will stop buying tickets when these kinds of situations continue to arise - announcing that if you don't do everything within your power to put the best product on the field, they just don't care to come watch. "Fans" are just that - fanatics - and we commonly hear them say they don't give a *hit what the players are making because "they're ALL overpaid for playing a game" and "it's not MY money", and to a point they're right...they just want to see their favorite team do well, and they make the whole thing go because they actually do create the financial windfall when they substantially overpay to buy stale beer, heart attacks in sacks, and jerseys with their favorite players' names on them. We all hope that this isn't the absolute peak of Acuna's game, but if his career path more closely resembles Heyward's than Trout's, a lot of people will be rightfully *issed that they were robbed of the opportunity to see him at his absolute best for even a few weeks because some billionaire had someone counting beans in a dark room somewhere in an effort to save him a few million dollars that he didn't do much to earn in the first place.
 
Sooner or later, fans will stop buying tickets when these kinds of situations continue to arise - announcing that if you don't do everything within your power to put the best product on the field, they just don't care to come watch. "Fans" are just that - fanatics - and we commonly hear them say they don't give a *hit what the players are making because "they're ALL overpaid for playing a game" and "it's not MY money", and to a point they're right...they just want to see their favorite team do well, and they make the whole thing go because they actually do create the financial windfall when they substantially overpay to buy stale beer, heart attacks in sacks, and jerseys with their favorite players' names on them. We all hope that this isn't the absolute peak of Acuna's game, but if his career path more closely resembles Heyward's than Trout's, a lot of people will be rightfully *issed that they were robbed of the opportunity to see him at his absolute best for even a few weeks because some billionaire had someone counting beans in a dark room somewhere in an effort to save him a few million dollars that he didn't do much to earn in the first place.

These are the same people who will also get *issed when the Braves lose a player like Acuna a year early, or can't re-sign him, or trade him to utilize his value before he leaves (like Heyward). And they'll threaten to stop coming because of that, too.

Basically, you can't fully appease the willfully ignorant. They'll always get mad at something they don't understand...because they don't understand it.

MLB likely needs to change the rule, but there will always be some rule, and teams will always do what is necessary to use those rules to benefit them the most.
 
These are the same people who will also get *issed when the Braves lose a player like Acuna a year early, or can't re-sign him, or trade him to utilize his value before he leaves (like Heyward). And they'll threaten to stop coming because of that, too.

Basically, you can't fully appease the willfully ignorant. They'll always get mad at something they don't understand...because they don't understand it.

MLB likely needs to change the rule, but there will always be some rule, and teams will always do what is necessary to use those rules to benefit them the most.

But.... Until they do change the rule it is ridiculous to criticize teams for taking advantage of it. It would be especially unfair to penalize the Braves for playing by the rules under the "best interest of the game" criteria.

Talk about piling on!!!!
 
But.... Until they do change the rule it is ridiculous to criticize teams for taking advantage of it. It would be especially unfair to penalize the Braves for playing by the rules under the "best interest of the game" criteria.

Talk about piling on!!!!

Of course. Everyone understands why the Braves are doing this, and most would do the same under the same circumstances. The criticism is for nothing more than to have something to write about.
 
What would it take for an extension to be fair on both sides? If we could sign Acuna to an 8 year 80 million dollar contract right now structured as 3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17 should we do that? Would he accept that? Would it be fair for both sides? I know virtually nothing about players signing before they ever took the field. Its very difficult for me to value them. Is it possible that it would take more or less? I'm not sure.

This would be a precedent shattering deal, and it's unlikely to be offered by the Braves.

The current record contract signed by a player with zero service time is the $10M deal the Astros gave to Singleton. It has not worked out.

Longoria was given 6/17 with 3 options after playing 6 games at the MLB level.

The current record contract given to a player with 0-1 year of service time is the DeJong deal signed a month ago. It guarantees him 6/26 with 2 additional options, and just barely beat out the 6/25 plus 2 options deal the White Sox gave to Anderson last year. Teams don't completely shatter precedent setting deals.

I would be all for the Braves signing Albies to the DeJong deal right now, but they will likely wait until next offseason to work something out and make sure Acuna doesn't go all Swanson.

At that point, Acuna will either agree to something like 6/30 plus 2 options, or he will be so good he will go the Harper/Machado/Lindor route and go year to year in arb, then sign a $500M deal at the age of 27. I'm guessing the Braves will never be able to extend him.

I would be in favor of the Braves giving Albies
 
Actually reading this back, I think it would probably take more. Maybe an 8 year 100 million contract structured as 4/6/8/10/12/15/20/25 or something along those lines. In all honesty I'm just shooting from the hip on this.

enscheff has put some of these out. I don't do these evaluations.

My opinion is that we should not structure these like that. It is advantageous to the player to get more money up front b/c of the present value of money and the ability to invest it. There is also a chance to move more quickly into the star player lifestyle.

I think Acuna probably would want something like 6/100 and fair would be 8/100. He might not want to be that close to 30. Just give him 12.5 a year. We have the room. It prevents you from having a big pay day later if he does get hurt. I'd rather have 12.5 per year then 4/6/8/10/12/15/20/25. Especially if I'm not a guy who signed for several million.
 
enscheff has put some of these out. I don't do these evaluations.

My opinion is that we should not structure these like that. It is advantageous to the player to get more money up front b/c of the present value of money and the ability to invest it. There is also a chance to move more quickly into the star player lifestyle.

I think Acuna probably would want something like 6/100 and fair would be 8/100. He might not want to be that close to 30. Just give him 12.5 a year. We have the room. It prevents you from having a big pay day later if he does get hurt. I'd rather have 12.5 per year then 4/6/8/10/12/15/20/25. Especially if I'm not a guy who signed for several million.

This is basically correct, just not to that extent.

Many of these extensions have a $1M-$2M signing bonus that makes the player an instant millionaire. While that's chump change for a team, it's life changing for a player.

Nobody is giving a player with less than 1 year of service time $100M.
 
This would be a precedent shattering deal, and it's unlikely to be offered by the Braves.

The current record contract signed by a player with zero service time is the $10M deal the Astros gave to Singleton. It has not worked out.

The current record contract given to a player with 0-1 year of service time is the DeJong deal signed a month ago. It guarantees him 6/26 with 2 additional options, and just barely beat out the 6/25+2 deal the White Sox gave to Anderson last year.

I would be all for the Braves signing Albies to the DeJong deal right now, but they will likely wait until next offseason to work something out and make sure Acuna doesn't go all Swanson.

At that point, Acuna will either agree to something like 6/30+2, or he will be so good he will go the Harper/Machado/Lindor route and go year to year in arb, then sign a $500M deal at the age of 27. I'm guessing the Braves will never be able to extend him.

I would be in favor of the Braves giving Albies

you follow this stuff more than I do.

I'm in favor of us locking up ALbies and ACuna now with big money up front. I think that makes sense. Team options on the back would be best for the team. I'd even extend Swanson after this year if he can show he can hit. 10 million is going to be a 1 WAR player fair market soon. You sign those 3 and I feel really confident 1 will be a total team steal and I doubt the others will kill you.

IMO the Braves need to be aggressive here. But it makes sense for AA to want a year in the organization before he throws a ton of chips in as players or in deals over 50 million.
 
This is basically correct, just not to that extent.

Many of these extensions have a $1M-$2M signing bonus that makes the player an instant millionaire. While that's chump change for a team, it's life changing for a player.

I just look at these things like a pension or a lotto pay out. Give me the money now. I can invest it and make it grow. Present value of money is a real thing. I think it's better for the player and the team to have a flatter scale.
 
Teams also understand present value of money, which is why they don't front load contracts unless it's to offset opt-out risk.

An Acuna extension within the next calendar year would likely break down as:

$1M-$2M signing bonus
2019 (PA 2): $1M
2020 (PA 3): $1.5M
2021 (Arb 1): $2M
2022 (Arb 2): $5M
2023 (Arb 3): $8M
2024 (Arb 4): $11M
2025 (FA 1): $15M+ option, $1M-$2M buyout
2026 (FA 2): $15M+ option, $1M-$2M buyout

That's 6/30+ guaranteed, and controls Acuna through his age 28 season.

I don't think he will accept that, and he will hit FA after the 2024 season as the next Harper/Machado.
 
These are the same people who will also get *issed when the Braves lose a player like Acuna a year early, or can't re-sign him, or trade him to utilize his value before he leaves (like Heyward). And they'll threaten to stop coming because of that, too.

Basically, you can't fully appease the willfully ignorant. They'll always get mad at something they don't understand...because they don't understand it.

MLB likely needs to change the rule, but there will always be some rule, and teams will always do what is necessary to use those rules to benefit them the most.

The difference in this situation is that quite a few folks are acting like they're the only ones who "get it" and that these others are simply that - ignorant. The problem is, they're not. EVERYBODY understands the situation - and I haven't seen the first person that has criticized the Braves for acting on the loophole - not a soul.

The complaint is about the situation - not which team is involved. The fact that Acuna's situation differs from Bryant's (or even Heyward's when he was called-up to start the season) doesn't hold water for your typical fan. The reason JS & Company gave for playing Heyward right out of the gates was that the team was a playoff contender, and everyone who could help them reach their goal was going to be utilized. Sure you can argue that it wasn't the optimal decision, but it sure gained them points with the vast majority of their fanbase. Leaving Bryant down worked out on the surface (and the Cubs luckily didn't miss the postseason by a game or two by utilizing the loophole), but no one knows what his future holds either.

The point that continually gets ignored around here is that a huge chunk of the people that actually ATTEND games not only don't understand the situation in the very least (much less as much as people who frequent this and other message boards and sites), they honestly don't give a *hit. What they DO know is that the best player the Braves have is going to be in Gwinnett - and because of that, their favorite team is likely to lose more games than it should. The reason there hasn't been more light focused on these situations is that by far they don't usually affect actual contenders and/or legitimate stars - fans understand it when some teams explain to them that "we're another couple years away", so they don't *itch about it. That doesn't mean they don't choose to stay home UNTIL those players are given their chance. Keep telling them "wait 'til next year", and eventually they won't come back. I still run into lifelong baseball fans who are in their 80s and 90s today that blame Glavine for the 1994 strike that have followed through on their promise to never go to another game again because they hate him - they won't give you 5 seconds to try to explain the economics that existed 20+ years ago, much less today. They hear that MLB is a $13 billion industry and that the "average" player makes $4+ million when they're making < $40,000 and think YOU'RE the "idiot" if you don't see what their problem with things is.
 
I'm confused.... You think Braves fans would rather see Acuna for 6 years, rather than 6.9 years?

clv gonna clv

Acuna will be in AAA for ~2 weeks. The Braves play 3 home games before Acuna will be called up, and then he will potentially play up to 78 home games in Atlanta. I would be surprised if many Braves players play in more than 70-75 home games.

His rant was pure stupidity. If there is an opportunity to say the dumbest thing imaginable, he will figure out how to maximize that opportunity.
 
The difference in this situation is that quite a few folks are acting like they're the only ones who "get it" and that these others are simply that - ignorant. The problem is, they're not. EVERYBODY understands the situation - and I haven't seen the first person that has criticized the Braves for acting on the loophole - not a soul.

The complaint is about the situation - not which team is involved. The fact that Acuna's situation differs from Bryant's (or even Heyward's when he was called-up to start the season) doesn't hold water for your typical fan. The reason JS & Company gave for playing Heyward right out of the gates was that the team was a playoff contender, and everyone who could help them reach their goal was going to be utilized. Sure you can argue that it wasn't the optimal decision, but it sure gained them points with the vast majority of their fanbase. Leaving Bryant down worked out on the surface (and the Cubs luckily didn't miss the postseason by a game or two by utilizing the loophole), but no one knows what his future holds either.

The point that continually gets ignored around here is that a huge chunk of the people that actually ATTEND games not only don't understand the situation in the very least (much less as much as people who frequent this and other message boards and sites), they honestly don't give a *hit. What they DO know is that the best player the Braves have is going to be in Gwinnett - and because of that, their favorite team is likely to lose more games than it should. The reason there hasn't been more light focused on these situations is that by far they don't usually affect actual contenders and/or legitimate stars - fans understand it when some teams explain to them that "we're another couple years away", so they don't *itch about it. That doesn't mean they don't choose to stay home UNTIL those players are given their chance. Keep telling them "wait 'til next year", and eventually they won't come back. I still run into lifelong baseball fans who are in their 80s and 90s today that blame Glavine for the 1994 strike that have followed through on their promise to never go to another game again because they hate him - they won't give you 5 seconds to try to explain the economics that existed 20+ years ago, much less today. They hear that MLB is a $13 billion industry and that the "average" player makes $4+ million when they're making < $40,000 and think YOU'RE the "idiot" if you don't see what their problem with things is.

In your first paragraph, you claimed that EVERYBODY understands the situation, then in your last paragraph argued that a huge chunk of those attending games do not understand the situation and don't care to understand. I genuinely have no idea how to argue against that.

I was addressing the point you made in your last paragraph with my last post, which is that a lot of fans don't understand the situation and don't care to understand it. They are, as I said, willfully ignorant. My point is that they will always be willfully ignorant, on both ends. So sure, some (those who actually know who Acuna is) will be upset he doesn't start the year in Atlanta. Those same people would also be upset if we lost him after his rookie deal, and they would be angry a year earlier than they otherwise had to if we didn't have him up to start the year. They'll be mad at anything and everything that they don't understand...precisely because they don't understand it and don't care to. You have to try to market to those people, but you can't ultimately make actual decisions based on what they might think...because they might think anything. Because they don't understand what is going on.

So leave Acuna down and they'll be mad for 2 weeks. Have him up and they'll be mad for an entire year on the back end.

ETA: To address a point earlier, a lot of those who are that ignorant of the way all this works and why it might be a good idea to leave Acuna down are also the ones who don't even really know who Acuna is. They may have heard the Braves have a hot new prospect, or they may not have. They're probably just going to come to the game and root for whoever, and then once he's actually playing and has hype, they'll get excited. They're likely the very ones not angry that he's not playing because they don't even know enough to know that he could be playing.

The ones 'angry' that Acuna isn't playing are national writers with nothing better to do, and 'die-hard' fans who know enough of the situation but don't understand the economics. They'll get over it and support him whenever he is called up.
 
Literally the stadium could be empty for the three home games Acuna is not there. Hell make it six games cause the Braves are dicks. Even still the home games we get in his prime years will more than quadruple the lost income we lost because some fans are stupid this year.
 
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