2018: The Year Of The Venezuelan Trout
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Don't know why, but this reminds me of the famous Billy Madison quote.
"Mr. Madison, what you have just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."
But in all seriousness, you can't be serious right?
chipchildress
Awaiting a Promotion
babip has got to be the dumbest stat...especially when looking at young guys
i mean, it's great to see if chris johnson is pulling some bs out of his ass, but beyond that, people tend to get way too bogged down and forget to watch the players.
i like to point to greg maddux and his actual ability to affect BABIP when folks get too caught up in this stat.
what if babip was around in the 40s?
"Hey guys, Ted Williams hit .400! last year."
"Yeah, but it's not sustainable, look at that babip"
i mean, it's great to see if chris johnson is pulling some bs out of his ass, but beyond that, people tend to get way too bogged down and forget to watch the players.
i like to point to greg maddux and his actual ability to affect BABIP when folks get too caught up in this stat.
what if babip was around in the 40s?
"Hey guys, Ted Williams hit .400! last year."
"Yeah, but it's not sustainable, look at that babip"
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Acuna probably will be a guy who sustains a relatively high BABIP with his hit/power/speed combo. But to expect anything over .350 is just crazy. Heck, .350 would be an absolutely amazing outcome. So the only reasonable expectation is that his BABIP regresses by more than 150 points over the course of a season. Does that mean he won't great? No of course not. But it does mean that he has gotten very lucky in the early goings of the spring and once that luck starts to even out we will get a better representation of what Acuna is long term.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
for serious though, clvclv just went full clv
BABIP is important when you have a large enough sample size, just like other stats.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I think you are misunderstanding the purpose of BABIP. Its purpose is to be predictive in what to expect from a player moving forward. Its also useful in gauging how much luck was involved in the player's stats. Ted William's BABIP was actually *only* .378 the year that he hit over .400. That isn't as high as you would think it would be, but its still reasonable to assume that he got very lucky and unreasonable to assume that would be his career norm. And indeed .378 was 50 points above his career average in BABIP, just as his average was 62 points higher than his career average. With a large enough sample size, the correlation becomes pretty tight.
Edit: After re-reading your post, I don't think you're misunderstanding the purpose of BABIP as much as you are downplaying the tight correlation that exists between the stat and predicting future success. As for Maddux, his career BABIP against was .281 which is really good, but only a few points better than most long term starting pitchers. Like, Matt Garza has a .291. Julio Teheran is actually better with a .276. So it wasn't like Maddux was extraordinary at that.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I think folks are confusing what BaBip means. It doesn't mean a guy didn't do what he did. CJ did hit .3 whatever that year.. What BaBip does do, is predict the likely hood of it happening again. No one knows what Asoona's BaBip will be in MLB or how it will affect his hitting profile, but to call that a dumb stat is just dumb.
That's not really correct. Hitting the ball hard leads to a higher slugging but BABIP itself has no correlation.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Exactly. Acuna could very well be a guy who can sustain a .320+ BABIP, but if he ever has a season where he has a .360 BABIP (which is certainly possible) you can almost guarantee that he will regress the next season. Once you have about 800 ML at bats you can start to find a baseline for a hitter's BABIP. I expect Acuna to be in the .320 range. And any extreme deviation from that number would indicate he got lucky or unlucky. Its really not a difficult stat to grasp and understand its purpose.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
correct, except it is Asoona.. get it right please.. there is no chance that the Pirates broadcast team could have been wrong the whole game.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
But we know with a very high degree of confidence it won't be above .400.
Highest career BABIP: Ty Cobb .383. Next highest Shoeless Joe Jackson .366.
Among active players: Joey Votto is at .354 for his career.
Leaders in 2017: Avisail Garcia .392, Charlie Blackman .371, Jose Altuve .370, Tommy Pham .368. All regression candidates to one extent or another.
Trivia question: Has anyone with the requisite number of qualifying at bats ever had a BABIP over .400 in the post-WWII era?
Technically yes but it's never going to happen. Would take someone that never struck out and hit a ton of homeruns with a huge flyball tendency.
Consistent high BABIP Guys (meaning no fluke) are going to be ones with high linedrive rates. Speed and hitting left handed help as well.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Yeah the closest anyone will every come to that is Williams hitting .406 with a .378 BABIP.
I mean just having your batting average higher than your BABIP is super rare itself. Takes elite power with low strikesouts which Williams certainly had.
I agree and never said he would have a 400+. But Acuna should have a high babip for the reasons you mentioned.
Are there studies on this?
A few. The angle in which you hit the ball is going to be the biggest factor and not how hard you hit it. This is why line drives generate hits the most often. You can smash a ball into the ground or sky it high and they will be outs more often than not. Now if you can combine great exit velocity with the optimal launch angle you get seasons like Aaron Judge just had.