2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION
- Thread starter Enscheff
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is what happens in deals for premium talent at the deadline. Even rentals (see deals in recent years for Chapman, Cespedes, Beltran).
It's roughly 2x, and typically more for elite pitchers that will have an out-sized impact on playoff games.
Go ahead and lower DeGrom's 2018 surplus value to $20M...doesn't change much. The Braves aren't getting him for Newk and Allard.
That comment assumed he was traded now. If he is traded at the deadline his cost goes down.
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We literally have these same discussions every single time trades are going down (deadline and off season).
And the surplus value model is proven correct every time.
Then we keep having these exact same discussions despite surplus value model always being right.
I'm just waiting for the predictable "the game isn't played in a spreadsheet" comment to nicely round out this thread..
And the surplus value model is proven correct every time.
Then we keep having these exact same discussions despite surplus value model always being right.
I'm just waiting for the predictable "the game isn't played in a spreadsheet" comment to nicely round out this thread..
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Consider the trade the Cubs made for Jose Quintana last year. The White Sox got Eloy Jimenez (ranked # 3 by BA at the start of the year), Dylan Cease (ranked #94) and a couple lesser prospects. Keep in mind someone like Jimenez is worth about the same as Soroka and Wright combined (or alternatively Acuna). So we are talking about those two plus another top 100 prospect. And also keep in mind that DeGrom is more valuable than Quintana, even taking into account Quintana's contract.
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And look how well this is turning out for the Cubs. Their splurges on trades for pitching have essentially closed their window of contention.
The Braves would do well to learn from the mistakes the Cubs are making.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Cubs are 1.5 games back in their division (behind team with best record in NL) and keep their core intact through 2021 at least. I wouldn't call their window closed.
Correct. Misstated on my part.
Their window is closing, and we can very clearly see the end of this run. They are no longer in position to be a 10 year dynasty like they appeared to be a couple years ago.
I understand the concept of the contenders premium, I just disagree with what its valued as. An extra 33 million in surplus value seems super optimistic for any buyer to receive.
And while those are decent examples, I can point to JD Martinez, Yu Darvish, and Jose Quintana? All of those trades were relatively equal in surplus value given up and received. At the very least, it would be a stretch to say any of them received near 33 extra in surplus value.
That isn't to say it couldn't happen. The Tex trade is proof of that. But 33 million extra seems on the high side.
We’ve literally shown the math on every one of those trades. Each one showed the contenders premium to be a very real thing.
At the deadline the premium for DeGrom will be closer to $20M because he will only be projected for ~2 wins over the rest of the season. It’s part of the reason why teams wait until the deadline to buy these players.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll do the Quintana trade. I prefer to work with surplus value as measured by WAR, then convert back to dollars. Quintana at the time of the trade could reasonably have been expected to generate surplus value of 2 WAR in the rest of 2017, 3 in 2018 and 2 each in 2019 and 2020. Total of 9. Given where they were rated Jimenez has an expected surplus value of around 10 and Cease around 4. Total of 14. Difference is 5. Convert that back at a price of around 8M per expected win and it is around 40M.
We can quibble about the numbers and I don't want to claim too much precision. But the Cubs paid a substantial premium.
Another way to look at it is that they paid a premium of 5 WAR over to acquire a player with expected surplus value of 9. So a premium of 50%.
Obviously sometimes it isn't quite as steep a premium. Last year there were a lot of selling teams, which generally held down the premium.
Realistically, you pay a premium if you are a buyer at the deadline. That's why I think it is a bad idea to do so on big trades. I'm ok with doing it on small trades. For a rental like Asdrubal Cabrera or a situational lefty. A 50% premium on a small number is a small number. That's how I look at it. So I'm ok with doing small trades to shore up a weakness at the deadline.
That seems like revisionist history to me. Quintana was coming off 3 straight seasons of at least 4.7 fWAR. Those WAR projections seem low considering he owned the 8th highest WAR for pitchers since 2013.
This article gauges Quintana's surplus value at 100 million on May 2, 2017, and that's closer to my figures (I figured the Cubs expected roughly 2 WAR for the rest of 2017 and they received that).
At 80 million in surplus value, the deal for Quintana was pretty fair.
I never stated I thought we have chance to get Degrom or that we should. He likely is right around 100 million in surplus value and we don't have the elite prospects currently that would be required for such a deal.
I don't, however, agree that 33 million in surplus value is the normal for a contenders premium.
Correct, because 6 win Aces don't normally get traded at the halfway point of the season. The $60M value for the 2nd half of 2018 was roughly calculated as 3+ wins times $10M, doubled to $60M+, with negligible salary removed. I didn't just assign a $33M premium as some sort of meticulously calculated value.
As I've said about a dozen times now, the premium will be closer to $20M at the deadline when he is projected for 2 wins rather than 3 wins. I'm not sure how else I can state it, or how many times you have to read it to understand.
I realize you are going to cling onto any small point you can to prove me wrong on something, but it's a little silly. The point of my whole post was to show that Newk and Allard aren't getting DeGrom, no matter if the contenders premium is $33M, $20M, or $10M. Continuing to argue over it is another example of trying to point out the professor's spelling mistake on the blackboard.
You went on and on about my "drivel" with regards to Newk's projections back on 7/3. You blabbered on and on about him being a "consistent 3-4 WAR pitcher", and he was then shelled again his last start. You are desperate to prove me wrong about something, so this "$33M" value is what you're clinging to at the moment.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Revisionist? Well he was mediocre in the first half of the 2017 (FIP slightly over 4), which can't be completely discounted. In my post I still said a realistic assumption was 2 WAR of surplus value in the second half of 2017. If anything that's a little generous considering his first half. Then I said 3 WAR of surplus value in 2018 which is consistent with him being a 4 WAR player. Than I have his performance dropping by 1 WAR to 3 WAR in 2019 and 2020. That's not revisionist. Its a fairly normal aging curve and takes account of injury risk.
Then you look at DeGrom. Believe me a lot of weight is going to be put on his first half 2018 performance (FIP 2.3). We can argue about what the right amount should be. But that's how the market works. A certain amount of weight was put on Quintana's first half 2017 performance and the same will happen with DeGrom if he gets moved this year. But of course that will work in the opposite direction in terms of how his market value will move.
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I've barely even spoken to you lately. And unlike other posters, I don't put much stock into 2 bad starts. The 35 starts prior to that painted a decent picture of what he's capable of long term.
Really? Because he's made 37 starts in his career and produced 2.6 total WAR.
A typical SP makes 32 starts per year. That 2.6 total WAR over 37 starts is 2.2 WAR over 32 starts...or exactly what I projected him to be...a #4.
What projections are you using that paint him as a "consistent 3-4 win pitcher" going forward? Surely it's better than my "drivel"?
Southcack77
Well-known member
I don't really see the deadline partner for the Mets and DeGrom.
The two teams that sort of stand out as being able to deliver near major league ready talent who might be in the hunt:
NYY: Andjuar or Torres plus Frazier and more stuff
WAS: Robles or Soto, plus Kieboom and other stuff.
Mets don't necessarily want to trade with either.
The Yankees probably don't feel a ton of urgency. They are ahead of schedule and seem to be making plans for next season and beyond.
The Nats might feel urgency, but is DeGrom their play?
Milwaukee doesn't really have the prospects.
I could see San Diego or the Reds being a partner as they are both teams that seem to think they are closer than perhaps they are and have some expendable assets that are near MLB ready, but hard to see why either of those squads would be doing a deal at the deadline. Ditto any temptation from the White Sox.
The two teams that sort of stand out as being able to deliver near major league ready talent who might be in the hunt:
NYY: Andjuar or Torres plus Frazier and more stuff
WAS: Robles or Soto, plus Kieboom and other stuff.
Mets don't necessarily want to trade with either.
The Yankees probably don't feel a ton of urgency. They are ahead of schedule and seem to be making plans for next season and beyond.
The Nats might feel urgency, but is DeGrom their play?
Milwaukee doesn't really have the prospects.
I could see San Diego or the Reds being a partner as they are both teams that seem to think they are closer than perhaps they are and have some expendable assets that are near MLB ready, but hard to see why either of those squads would be doing a deal at the deadline. Ditto any temptation from the White Sox.
I didn't realize a 25 year old pitcher with 1 season under his belt couldn't get better. Silly me.
In his first 32 starts he was at 2.7 fWAR. A mere .3 fWAR from that magic 3 WAR in only his 1st 32 starts. What a crazy notion that a pitcher showing improvement in 1st full season (2nd overall) might get even better than that.
That improvement was provided by a low babip and homerun rate. Things likely not to continue.