2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

[Carp]

"8th or 9th best prospect" gets into the FV 45 range. Claiming such a prospect would be "most teams best prospect" is pretty silly.

The good news is that none of the real candidates as a LHP out of the BP have been traded yet (Hand was never a realistic option). When those guys start going to other teams, I'll start to get worried. For now, all we are seeing is typical pre-deadline shopping.

It may be hyperbole, but our 8 or 9 likely includes two of Allard, Waters, Wilson, or Touki, depending on who you ask. I feel pretty confident classifying all of them as FV 50 guys. Maybe Waters and Wilson aren't quite there yet, but they should be if they continue their current play through the end of the season. Wilson is already getting a lot of love from the major sites.

 

[striker42]

I don't think that's really happening.

I think teams are asking for our numbers 8-10 in deals for middle relievers. I know if I'm a GM that's what I do. Hope that the Braves wealth of prospects makes them more willing to deal someone in their 8-10 and so get a much better return on what I'm selling.

Now when it comes down to teams deciding on which offer to take we'll have to see if they relent and accept someone farther down the list. Right now I have no doubt that teams are demanding better players from the Braves.

 

[Carp]

I personally don't feel teams are simply asking for "a top 8-10 prospect" in exchange for middle relievers. We saw what Familia and and Herrera went for and it most certainly wasn't top 10 prospects. Plus, that just seems lazy. Teams don't send out scouts to evaluate our players just for the GM to say "I need a random top 10 prospect."

 

[striker42]

I personally don't feel teams are simply asking for "a top 8-10 prospect" in exchange for middle relievers. We saw what Familia and and Herrera went for and it most certainly wasn't top 10 prospects. Plus, that just seems lazy. Teams don't send out scouts to evaluate our players just for the GM to say "I need a random top 10 prospect."

I think it's more that teams think they can get us to overpay because we have the resources to overpay. Say you're a salesman and you're negotiating with someone over price. You know that person is filthy rich and can pay a higher price and not miss it. Are you going to start by offering your goods at the same price you'd offer them to a poor person? No. You aim higher hoping that their wealth will lead make them more prone to overpaying.

I think that's what's happening here. If you're dealing with a team with a barren farm system you might not aim as high in your opening offer.

 

[clvclv]

Suter just diagnosed with a torn UCL.

Could this be the time to try to get them to bite on Julio???

 

[Carp]

I think it's more that teams think they can get us to overpay because we have the resources to overpay. Say you're a salesman and you're negotiating with someone over price. You know that person is filthy rich and can pay a higher price and not miss it. Are you going to start by offering your goods at the same price you'd offer them to a poor person? No. You aim higher hoping that their wealth will lead make them more prone to overpaying.

I think that's what's happening here. If you're dealing with a team with a barren farm system you might not aim as high in your opening offer.

Negotiations may start like that. Who knows. But GMs would be pretty dumb to demand that from us and then settle on guys like Toffey and Wahl, when players ranked in the same range in our farm would likely net you actual prospects like Cumberland, Tarnok, Ynoa, Alex Jackson, etc.

 

[thewupk]

I think teams are asking for our numbers 8-10 in deals for middle relievers. I know if I'm a GM that's what I do. Hope that the Braves wealth of prospects makes them more willing to deal someone in their 8-10 and so get a much better return on what I'm selling.

Now when it comes down to teams deciding on which offer to take we'll have to see if they relent and accept someone farther down the list. Right now I have no doubt that teams are demanding better players from the Braves.

Teams always ask for better players at first because that's how you negotiate. And teams will always take the deal that they think gives them the better return. But I doubt we are being penalized for this in anyway in trade talks.

 

[striker42]

Teams always ask for better players at first because that's how you negotiate. And teams will always take the deal that they think gives them the better return. But I doubt we are being penalized for this in anyway in trade talks.

Penalized might be the wrong word. It's more that they might think they can get more from a team that has more to offer.

I expect the price will come down a good bit as the deadline approaches but I also expect that the Braves will probably end up paying a little bit more than teams with more barren systems.

 

[cajunrevenge]

question about FV. If the Braves view a prospect as a 45 fv prospect and another team views a prospect as being 55 FV, whats the real FV? Seems to me teams would want to make is trading for a teams 45 fv player that you view as higher. I always see FV put out there as if its a settled amount. I imagine therr are a lot of wildly varying opinions on one team much less all 30 teams.

 

[CJ9]

Ideas from Eno Sarris on The Athletic -

The Braves send LHP Kyle Muller and C Alex Jackson to the Royals for 3b Mike Moustakas. (Feels like too much to give up)

The Braves send OF Christian Pache, LHP Luiz Gohara, and RHP Josh Graham to the Rays for RHP Chris Archer. (Feels like not enough to give up)

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Ideas from Eno Sarris on The Athletic -

The Braves send LHP Kyle Muller and C Alex Jackson to the Royals for 3b Mike Moustakas. (Feels like too much to give up)

The Braves send OF Christian Pache, LHP Luiz Gohara, and RHP Josh Graham to the Rays for RHP Chris Archer. (Feels like not enough to give up)

I don’t like archer deal with pache in there

 

[mfree80]

Ideas from Eno Sarris on The Athletic -

The Braves send LHP Kyle Muller and C Alex Jackson to the Royals for 3b Mike Moustakas. (Feels like too much to give up)

The Braves send OF Christian Pache, LHP Luiz Gohara, and RHP Josh Graham to the Rays for RHP Chris Archer. (Feels like not enough to give up)

Glad these guys are writers and don't work for the Braves.

Seriously, they are generally not privy to how the Braves see their own prospects. They look at value, but generally not where that value stacks up as part of the organization.

 

[thewupk]

question about FV. If the Braves view a prospect as a 45 fv prospect and another team views a prospect as being 55 FV, whats the real FV? Seems to me teams would want to make is trading for a teams 45 fv player that you view as higher. I always see FV put out there as if its a settled amount. I imagine therr are a lot of wildly varying opinions on one team much less all 30 teams.

Sure. Not every team values each player the same. That being said most trades line up with the public FV listings with their surplus value. So I think it's safe to assume most teams will value prospects roughly the same. What you generally see is that some teams will put more an emphasis on either a certain position or those closer to the majors.

 

[cajunrevenge]

ok, so who/what/where is the publicly agreed upon FV list? I do not agree that most teams value players roughly the same though. That defies all logic amd huma nature.

 

[Carp]

Ideas from Eno Sarris on The Athletic -

The Braves send LHP Kyle Muller and C Alex Jackson to the Royals for 3b Mike Moustakas. (Feels like too much to give up)

The Braves send OF Christian Pache, LHP Luiz Gohara, and RHP Josh Graham to the Rays for RHP Chris Archer. (Feels like not enough to give up)

First deal is probably about right, but it does seem a bit of an overpay. Guess it depends on how Alex Jackson is valued.

Archer deal may be a bit light considering the contenders premium, but its probably fairly close if Gohara is still valued as a FV 55 prospect. Remember, coming into the year he was projected to be our best starter by several people. And I would not do this trade. Archer is fairly overrated, imo, and I think there's a pretty decent chance Gohara is better than Archer as soon as next year.

 

[Enscheff]

ok, so who/what/where is the publicly agreed upon FV list? I do not agree that most teams value players roughly the same though. That defies all logic amd huma nature.

The idea is that the public FV lists are a combination of all the thoughts of all the teams. These ratings are obviously subjective, and differ by teams, or else no trades would ever happen. The whole point of a good trade is finding a guy another team likes more than you do.

I get it, you're trying to dismiss the FV and surplus model of assessing trades. Problem is that it's right all the time. Rather than arguing against it, I would suggest understanding it and using it to help figure out which trades are likely.

 

[Enscheff]

Ideas from Eno Sarris on The Athletic -

The Braves send LHP Kyle Muller and C Alex Jackson to the Royals for 3b Mike Moustakas. (Feels like too much to give up)

The Braves send OF Christian Pache, LHP Luiz Gohara, and RHP Josh Graham to the Rays for RHP Chris Archer. (Feels like not enough to give up)

I'd rather get a lesser player at 3B, and I don't think it's wise to tie up so many resources into a single SP.

Plus, I don't think that package gets Archer.

 

[CyYoung31]

Rangers and Nationals are discussing Hamels.

lol

 

[BeanieAntics]

I'd rather get a lesser player at 3B, and I don't think it's wise to tie up so many resources into a single SP.

Plus, I don't think that package gets Archer.

Agreed on both accounts. We should be bargain bin shopping for upgrades this season. That is where I think the real value is right now. Leave SP alone and go grab a utility infielder that hits righties well and a bullpen arm or two. We could get all of that done without any significant dents to the farm system and it would probably help us out as much if not more than big package for Archer.

 

[Southcack77]

I have been and continue to be completely cold on Moose.

That’s probably fair package but I wouldn’t do it. I’m not sure I’d spend anything on 3b at this point.