2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

Enscheff said:
This whole "the playoffs are a crap shoot" cliche is silly.

Yes, there is a luck component to winning in the playoffs, but we all know the formula for increasing a team's odds of succeeding in the postseason. To claim otherwise is bordering on moronic.

Get 2-3 dominant SPs, 2-3 dominant BP arms, good defense, and as many impact hitters as possible...then hope those hitters don't get shut down by the other team's dominant pitchers.

Declaring something a "crap shoot" is what losers do. The winners talk about how awesome they are.
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Dominant pitching does increase the odds of winning a short series. But by how much. It seems to me that teams with less than dominant pitching make it and win the WS a fair amount of the time. Most recently the Royals. And dominant pitching is no guarantee. See the Tigers when they had Verlander and Scherzer plus some pretty good hitters. See the gnats who haven't even made the WS.

There is enough randomness in a 5 or 7 game series so that inferior teams often go deep in the playoffs and sometimes win it all. This is one of the reasons I don't think it makes sense to pay the contender's premium. Build a good solid club in the off-season. Make sure you have good depth including the "second bench" in AAA. Add judiciously at the deadline. Avoid paying that contender's premium. Its main effect is to shorten a contending team's window.
 
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nsacpi said:
Dominant pitching does increase the odds of winning a short series. But by how much. It seems to me that teams with less than dominant pitching make it and win the WS a fair amount of the time. Most recently the Royals. And dominant pitching is no guarantee. See Tigers when they had Verlander and Scherzer plus some pretty good hitters.
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I'm going to quote what I said...

Yes, there is a luck component to winning in the playoffs, but we all know the formula for increasing a team's odds of succeeding in the postseason.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm going to quote what I said...

Yes, there is a luck component to winning in the playoffs, but we all know the formula for increasing a team's odds of succeeding in the postseason.
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The devil is in the details. I think most people overestimate how much adding a DeGrom improves a contending team's chances of winning the WS. Our chances would rise from 3% this year to 4%. For a team more advantageously placed on the win curve the odds might rise from 13% to 15%. Even for that sort of team, I don't think it is worth blowing up their farm system. And that's what it would take.
 
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nsacpi said:
The devil is in the details. I think most people overestimate how much adding a DeGrom improves a contending team's chances of winning the WS. Our chances would rise from 3% this year to 4%. For a team more advantageously placed on the win curve the odds might rise from 13% to 15%. Even for that sort of team, I don't think it is worth blowing up their farm system. And that's what it would take.
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While those are completely arbitrary and made up numbers, I agree that trading for deGrom is not wise.
 
Enscheff said:
While those are completely arbitrary and made up numbers, I agree that trading for deGrom is not wise.
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how much do you think a team like the Red Sox would improve their chances by trading for DeGrom
 
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Enscheff said:
This whole "the playoffs are a crap shoot" cliche is silly.

Yes, there is a luck component to winning in the playoffs, but we all know the formula for increasing a team's odds of succeeding in the postseason. To claim otherwise is bordering on moronic.

Get 2-3 dominant SPs, 2-3 dominant BP arms, good defense, and as many impact hitters as possible...then hope those hitters don't get shut down by the other team's dominant pitchers.

Declaring something a "crap shoot" is what losers do. The winners talk about how awesome they are.
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So the magic formula is dominant starters, dominant relievers, great defense and great hitting?

Sounds smart
 
Enscheff said:
A BP arm that can get LHed hitters out is definitely an area of need for the Braves, and it should be possible to fill that need relatively cheaply.

Here is a list of the 47 pitchers who have pitched 25+ innings since the start of 2017 with an FIP and xFIP of 3.5 or less in the 6th-9th innings vs LHed hitters:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaderssp...Pt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=17,-1

Potential targets are only going to be on non-contenders, and they include:

Tony Watson (Giants)
Brad Hand (Padres)
Roberto Osuna (Jays)
Luis Avilan (White Sox)
Alex Claudio (Rangers)
Bryan Shaw (Rockies)
Jerry Blevins (Mets)
Aaron Loup (Jays)

- It's safe to assume Hand isn't going to happen.
- The Giants may or may not sell, but Watson will only be owed about $1M for RoS 2018, $3.5M in 2019, and a $2.5M option in 2020.
- Osuna is a stud still in arbitration and getting expensive due to racking up saves. He is unlikely to be the target.
- Avilan is the poster child for LHed set up rental arm. He would fit nicely.
- Claudio is a prototypical LHed setup guy under arb control for 3 more years. If used properly he might be an ideal target.
- Shaw just got big money from the Rockies and isn't a likely target for the Braves.
- Blevins is another prototypical set up LHer. He will be making less than $2M RoS in 2018 with a $7M option in 2018. He is another solid target.
- Loup is another prototypical set up LHer. He's a rental making almost nothing RoS in 2018. Solid target.

Based on this list, the best options are Avilan, Claudio, Blevins and Loup. A combo deal with the Mets for Asdrubel and Blevins could represent a one-stop-shop for the Braves...as would Solarte and Loup from the Jays.
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Definitely not getting Osuna now.
 
Sometimes not so great teams win the World Series is maybe not all that true and definitely not a good rationale for not improving a team that is a legit contender.
 
The padres have several pieces we can use, but are difficult to deal with.

Diekman on the rangers would be nice. Shane Greene would be a nice cheap fit $ wise too.

Still can’t get over the herrera deal. He was easily a top 5 deadline commodity
 
PurpleBrave said:
The padres have several pieces we can use, but are difficult to deal with.

Diekman on the rangers would be nice. Shane Greene would be a nice cheap fit $ wise too.

Still can’t get over the herrera deal. He was easily a top 5 deadline commodity
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I know Braves dont have a ton of money to pick up but given the prospects they have, Herrera would have fit in so perfect since the cost apparently wasnt that much.

Even if you ask the Royals to pickup some of the salary, it's not gonna cost an insane haul. That's one player im dissapointed AA didnt go for.
 
Heyward said:
I know Braves dont have a ton of money to pick up but given the prospects they have, Herrera would have fit in so perfect since the cost apparently wasnt that much.

Even if you ask the Royals to pickup some of the salary, it's not gonna cost an insane haul. That's one player im dissapointed AA didnt go for.
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Royals are in penny punching mode. This means they are unlikely to match up well with us.
 
Dumping off Herrera now saves them what? 600k? At the expense of better assets? Just fold the franchise
 
We should have been all over Herrera. Bullpen is a weakness and he would have shored up that 9th inning and allowed everybody to move back a spot. IMO we need 2 bullpen arms if we are gonna make a run at the playoffs.
 
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