2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

Orphan Black said:
Indications on Gennett is that the Reds may want to sign him long term.
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Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Reds and Scooter Gennett "have had minimal talks" regarding a contract extension.
Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reported a couple days ago that it was "doubtful" the Reds would trade Gennett and might sign him to an extension instead. However, Rosenthal is hearing otherwise, writing that "nothing will stand in the way of a trade if that is what Reds decide to do." Gennett is under team control for another season, so Cincinnati isn't under pressure to deal the second baseman soon. However, capitalizing while his stock is high makes sense.
Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter
 
Markakis will definitely regress, but I expect Acuna to pick up some off the slack.

I think if we can find an answer for 3B and bench, we will be in good shape.
 
I don't expect our offense to regress much if at all. Ender is due for better luck and I think Acuna will adjust and finish strong. Camargo is now hitting about where you'd expect. Maybe slightly over his head, but not by much. Markakis has not shown any signs of slowing down.
 
More like Ender is due to realize...and I actually hate doing this but it's true, that he's not the kind of hitter that can try to pull the ball as much as he has with success. It's too high for a guy that hits the ball so weakly. IF he turns back into a pinging hitter, he'll be at least his perfectly average offensive self.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
More like Ender is due to realize...and I actually hate doing this but it's true, that he's not the kind of hitter that can try to pull the ball as much as he has with success. It's too high for a guy that hits the ball so weakly. IF he turns back into a pinging hitter, he'll be at least his perfectly average offensive self.
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I'm more and more team Trade Ender. I still think if we are going to update the roster we have to be agressive.


What do ppl think Eduardo Escobar would cost from the Twins? He looks like he is Comargo like and hits righties well. Comargo and Escobar as a platoon would be pretty nasty and provide a lot of positional flexability for NL ball or not relying on Culberson and Swanson.
 
FWIW, Ender's BABIP this season is .269. The last three seasons, in over 500 PAs in each, Ender's BABIPs have been .329, .329, .339.

Also, Ender's BB rate is at a career high 8.1% and his K rate is 13.6% (it was 13.1% last year). So, Ender is walking a little more and striking out at essentially the same rate as last year.

His hard hit ball% is also at a career high 26%.

With Ender's BABIP at about 60 points below his career average, and no real alarming trends in his other stats, it's safe to say he's been pretty unlucky. He's due to improve in a big way in the second half.
 
striker42 said:
FWIW, Ender's BABIP this season is .269. The last three seasons, in over 500 PAs in each, Ender's BABIPs have been .329, .329, .339.

Also, Ender's BB rate is at a career high 8.1% and his K rate is 13.6% (it was 13.1% last year). So, Ender is walking a little more and striking out at essentially the same rate as last year.

His hard hit ball% is also at a career high 26%.

With Ender's BABIP at about 60 points below his career average, and no real alarming trends in his other stats, it's safe to say he's been pretty unlucky. He's due to improve in a big way in the second half.
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Ender's drop in BABIP is partly due to his sudden change in batted ball profile.

His 22.8% career LD% has dropped to 19.7%, and his 33/33/33 pull/center/opp spray profile has shifted to 40/34/26.

One of the main ways batters beat their xwOBA (something Ender has consistently done) is by spraying the ball around, and Ender became a little too pull happy early in the year. The good news is he seems to have corrected that issue for the most part, and I expect him to be his usual .320 wOBA self the 2nd half.

He is a decent lead off option vs RHed SPs if the Braves refuse to bat Markakis in the 1 hole.
 
Enscheff said:
Ender's drop in BABIP is partly due to his sudden change in batted ball profile.

His 22.8% career LD% has dropped to 19.7%, and his 33/33/33 pull/center/opp spray profile has shifted to 40/34/26.

One of the main ways batters beat their xwOBA (something Ender has consistently done) is by spraying the ball around, and Ender became a little too pull happy early in the year. The good news is he seems to have corrected that issue for the most part, and I expect him to be his usual .320 wOBA self the 2nd half.

He is a decent lead off option vs RHed SPs if the Braves refuse to bat Markakis in the 1 hole.
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So, that would seem to suggest that it is not simply a matter of luck, but a change in approach. There is probably a small element of luck included, but getting back to his more productive role could be accomplished by more effectively using all fields.
 
mfree80 said:
So, that would seem to suggest that it is not simply a matter of luck, but a change in approach. There is probably a small element of luck included, but getting back to his more productive role could be accomplished by more effectively using all fields.
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I have no idea why he was pulling the ball more and hitting fewer LDs. I certainly hope it wasn't intentional because he doesn't have the exit velocity to support a batted ball profile like that.

Maybe it was the 4 HRs he poked out in May (he also got pull happy in April 2017 when he poked out 4 that month). Maybe it was seeing Albies poke a bunch out early.

I try not to go into that type of silly speculation based on watching games on TV.
 
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It definitely is relatively simple with Ender. If he stops pulling as much as he has been and reverts back to a weak spray hitter, he'll be fine, maybe not the monster second half of 2016 though. If he keeps pulling however, he might very well have the worst season of his career.
 
Enscheff said:
Braves appear to be in on Britton:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/zach-britton-trade-rumors-picked-up-steam-orioles.html

Considering the quantity over quality package of position prospects the Os took for Machado, I think it's rather likely they will accept a quantity over quality package of lower end pitchers for Britton. This is a trade scenario that could potentially turn out very well for the Braves as it plays right into their wheelhouse.
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Britton makes a certain amount of sense. It would allow for more flexibility in how Minter is used.
 
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also from MLBTR the Braves are in on Fulmer still. They discussed Fulmer with the Tigers last winter and according to Bowman(via MLBTR) he is still on Braves radar.
 
salmagundy said:
also from MLBTR the Braves are in on Fulmer still. They discussed Fulmer with the Tigers last winter and according to Bowman(via MLBTR) he is still on Braves radar.
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This is precisely the type of trade I want the Braves to avoid paying full retail price to complete.

Here is Fulmer's ERA, FIP and xFIP plotted per game the last 3 years:

F0Cp3B1.jpg


He is exactly following the typical aging curve of a SP in their mid-20s. He is well into his decline phase, and declining exactly as predicted by the pitcher aging curve.

He is valuable because he has 4.5 years of control remaining, and likely won't be traded without the acquiring team giving up $75M+ in surplus value. So unless the Tigers are like the Os and are interested in a quantity over quality package, that means the centerpiece will be a FV 55 guy plus other valuable pieces. Considering the Tigers extracted Perez and Cameron from the Astros for Verlander, I don't see any indication they are as dumb as the Os.
 
nsacpi said:
wonder if we will offer Albies again
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Wonder if we ever really did? Rumors come from a lot of sources for a lot of purposes. Most likely someone trying to drive up the price by starting rumors about other bids.

Nobody but AA knows for sure...
 
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