2019 100 PA Check In: Nick Markakis

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
The value signing of the off season has crossed 100 PA for 2019, so let's see how good of a value he has been and is likely to continue being.

Overall Slash Line:

108 PAs, .341/.417/.495 (.911 OPS, .154 ISO), 138 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

What's Not Real:

The .372 BABIP is easy to identify as unsustainable, but the 30.0% LD rate Markakis has posted so far in 2019 offers hope there is a chance the regression won't be as severe as his .317 career BABIP suggests. It's still probably safe to assume the .341 BA is a bit of a mirage.

Markakis is posting a FB rate of 18.8%, which would be far below his career mark (33.0%). Unless Markakis has somehow transformed into Eric Hosmer on steroids, I expect to see the FB rate increase by quite a bit, which will be the reason the BABIP (and thus BA) regresses.

What Is Real:

Outside of the huge LD rate leading to huge BABIP and BA, everything else looks very Markakis-like.

The 13.0% K rate falls right in line with career averages and what we expect from Markakis. The 13.0% BB rate would be his highest since his 6 win season in 2008, and seems to be following the trend of the entire 2019 Braves roster taking a lot more walks than we are used to seeing.

Markakis is maintaining a very good 94.2 mph average LD/FB exit velocity, so there's no reason to question the 13.3% HR rate (which isn't dramatically out of line anyways), or the .155 ISO. Considering there are a lot more LDs in that velocity number than FBs, seeing that number inflated a bit from his usual value of ~92 mph isn't much of a surprise.

Moving Forward:

Markakis is making a lot of folks eat a lot of crow so far in 2019 as he paces for a ~3 win season...all for the spare change rolling around the center console of McQuirk's Bentley. He doesn't provide any value in the field, or on bases, but he is unquestionably hitting as well or better than anyone could have reasonably expected.

While he is on pace to play in all 162 games, Markakis has been rested for 2 games already, which means he is on pace for ~150 starts. While the struggles of Inciarte, and the lack of another competent RHH OF has limited the amount of rest Snit has been willing to give him, it looks like the plan of giving everyone not named Freeman/Acuna more rest may help keep Markakis fresher longer into the season.
 
With this in mind.....

"While the struggles of Inciarte, and the lack of another competent RHH OF has limited the amount of rest Snit has been willing to give him,......"

Why don't we recall Duval and send one of the worthless BP guys(Winkler, Sobotka, or anyone else) down for Duval. Wouldn't his bat be more beneficial than some of the BP guys. More runs to work with might help ease the pressure on the BP.
 
salmagundy said:
With this in mind.....

"While the struggles of Inciarte, and the lack of another competent RHH OF has limited the amount of rest Snit has been willing to give him,......"

Why don't we recall Duval and send one of the worthless BP guys(Winkler, Sobotka, or anyone else) down for Duval. Wouldn't his bat be more beneficial than some of the BP guys. More runs to work with might help ease the pressure on the BP.
Click to expand...

In the Year of Our Lord 2019, all Major League teams must carry at least 87 pitchers at all times.
 
salmagundy said:
With this in mind.....

"While the struggles of Inciarte, and the lack of another competent RHH OF has limited the amount of rest Snit has been willing to give him,......"

Why don't we recall Duval and send one of the worthless BP guys(Winkler, Sobotka, or anyone else) down for Duval. Wouldn't his bat be more beneficial than some of the BP guys. More runs to work with might help ease the pressure on the BP.
Click to expand...

Duvall is playing very well in Gwinett and I'd like to give him a shot. But right now we have don't have anyone to push out in order to bring him up. Our bench has been pretty amazing so far. And going with a shorter pen is not the answer either.

Someone will get hurt at some point and then we'll likely see Duvall.
 
Carp said:
Duvall is playing very well in Gwinett and I'd like to give him a shot. But right now we have don't have anyone to push out in order to bring him up. Our bench has been pretty amazing so far. And going with a shorter pen is not the answer either.

Someone will get hurt at some point and then we'll likely see Duvall.
Click to expand...


One less POS reliever would not hurt the BP. It might force Snit to use the right guy in the right spot. And again the increase in offense would reduce the BP pressure. A 3-4-5 run lead would eliminate the need to use 2 guys in the 9th to close out a game in all likely hood.
 
salmagundy said:
One less POS reliever would not hurt the BP. It might force Snit to use the right guy in the right spot. And again the increase in offense would reduce the BP pressure. A 3-4-5 run lead would eliminate the need to use 2 guys in the 9th to close out a game in all likely hood.
Click to expand...

One less POS reliever puts more stress and a higher work load on the other POS relievers, making their poor performance even worse. Taking relievers away is not a good choice.
 
I thought Nick was a huge risk to see a big dropoff in numbers this year. But he looks like the same old Markakis. If you ever want to see a definition of a professional hitter, look at Markakis. Guy goes to the plate prepared, takes what he's given and doesn't try to pull everything out of the park, and is willing to work the count and take a walk. I hope to continue eating crow.
 
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