2019 Braves vs Phillies By the Records

ZIPS rest of season projections

Bruce: 0.7 fWAR
McCutchen: 1.8 fWAR

Bruce has been playing well but he likely plays down to his true talent level soon.


Fangraphs (using Zips and other methods) has the Braves odds to win the division at 41% compared to the Phillies 27% after adding Kuechel. If you look purely at the ZIPS projections the Braves are at 60% to win the division with the Phillies at 17% (Nats are actually 3rd at 18%). Lots of season to go still but even with the Phillies ahead in the standings the Braves are in a good position to win this thing.
 
I did mention Bruce as possible trade target for LF...he was a decent candidate for bounce back and the salary wasn’t crazy.
 
Time for the update


Phillies record: 38-30. (1.5 GB of Braves; tied with Cubs for 1st WC spot)

Vs east : 15-9
Vs central : 11-9
Vs west : 7-9
Vs AL : 5-3

Vs RHP : 32-19
Vs LHP : 6-11

Braves 2019 record: 40-29

Vs east: 10-8
Vs central : 15-7
Vs west : 11-12
Vs AL : 4-2

Vs RHP: 29-24
Vs LHP: 11-5
 
we have a better record against the marlins... they have a better record against everyone else
 
Phillies overall record : 39-34 (4 GB)

Vs east : 16-13
Vs central : 11-9
Vs west : 7-9
Vs AL : 5-3

Vs RHP: 32-21
Vs LHP: 7-13

Braves overall record : 44-31

Vs east: 14-10
Vs central : 15-7
Vs west : 11-12
Vs AL : 4-2

Vs RHP : 32-26
Vs LHP : 12-5
 
Phillies final games before the break:

3 vs Miami
4 vs Mets
3 @ Miami
3 @ Atlanta
3 @ Mets


Braves final games before break:

3 @ Nationals
4 @ Cubs
3 @ Mets
3 vs Phillies
3 vs Marlins
 
nsacpi said:
surprising the fillies have been so bad against LHP
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It's weird because they've actually hit LHP significantly better than RHP this year, but you would think it would be the opposite with most of their best hitters hitting substantially worse vs LHP over their careers.
 
Carp said:
It's weird because they've actually hit LHP significantly better than RHP this year, but you would think it would be the opposite with most of their best hitters hitting substantially worse vs LHP over their careers.
Click to expand...

so maybe the won loss record is misleading...given their lineup I thought it was odd
 
nsacpi said:
so maybe the won loss record is misleading...given their lineup I thought it was odd
Click to expand...

Or may be their production vs LHP is misleading. Either way, those numbers don't really gel. I'd expect the production vs LHP to go down but the production vs RHP to go up.
 
Update as of 7/1

Phillies overall record is 44-40 (5.5 GB of Atl)

Vs east : 21-19 (5-7 vs Marlins)
Vs central: 11-9
Vs west: 7-9
Vs AL: 5-3

Vs RHP: 35-27
Vs LHP: 9-13

Braves overall record is 50-35

Vs east: 18-12 (8-1 vs the Marlins)
Vs central : 17-9
Vs west: 11-12
Vs AL: 4-2

Vs RHP: 37-29
Vs LHP: 13-6

Obviously with a 5.5 game lead over the Phillies headed into this series at home, this is a big series for us. If we are swept they are 2.5 back, if we sweep they are 8.5 back...the Phillies pushed up Nova to start tonight vs DK
 
Big series... they're using their best starters. I think we match up ok though if Wilson doesn't combust
 
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