2019 Free Agent Targets

Southcack77 said:
I’m having trouble finding realistic targets for Atlanta in next year’s free agent class.
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This is why I was so big on going after Moustakas THIS winter - even if you'd signed him to a backloaded deal. You'd have gone through at least one year of it this season while Riley's trying to work on finishing touches, and possibly even two years of it if AA's serious about taking his time.

By that point, the NL may even have the DH.

Sure would've made 2018 a whole lot more interesting - especially if you need to slide Camargo over to send Dansby back down at some point.
 
clvclv said:
This is why I was so big on going after Moustakas THIS winter - even if you'd signed him to a backloaded deal. You'd have gone through at least one year of it this season while Riley's trying to work on finishing touches, and possibly even two years of it if AA's serious about taking his time.

By that point, the NL may even have the DH.

Sure would've made 2018 a whole lot more interesting - especially if you need to slide Camargo over to send Dansby back down at some point.
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I see Moose as a not-young, middling defender who is a year removed from a careeer year at the plate that looks more like an outlier than a breakout. In short, I wouldn’t want my team to commit to him long term.
 
With his arm history, I make no long-term projections about Viz. Minter is Venters 2.0, but he, too, already has one TJ to his account. Kimbrel has always been healthy as a horse and there are back-channel hints that he would do his part to come home. Clouse needs to face hitters at the highest levels; wish he had been a spring invitee for that reason.

Some speculation that Folty's future is that of a long reliever is interesting. If he doesn't know that he's pitching day to day, maybe he can outgrow his anxiety.
 
rico43 said:
With his arm history, I make no long-term projections about Viz. Minter is Venters 2.0, but he, too, already has one TJ to his account. Kimbrel has always been healthy as a horse and there are back-channel hints that he would do his part to come home. Clouse needs to face hitters at the highest levels; wish he had been a spring invitee for that reason.

Some speculation that Folty's future is that of a long reliever is interesting. If he doesn't know that he's pitching day to day, maybe he can outgrow his anxiety.
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But kimbrel is one torn ulnar ligament away from being done. And to sink the amount of money into an aging relief pitcher who could break at any moment doesn’t seem like a good deal to me. I’d rather stick with the young guys we have and try to turn some of the failed starters into relievers.
 
Hudson2 said:
You could trade Teheran to free up extra money if we had to. Pushing it towards 70 million available. Donaldson would chew up 25 of that, Grandal 10, and Blackmon probably 17-18. That would still leave around 15-18 million to fill out the rest of the roster.
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I don't see anyway Grandal gets less than 15 million per if he hits the open market and has a season similar to last year.
 
Southcack77 said:
I’m having trouble finding realistic targets for Atlanta in next year’s free agent class.
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Braves have like 38.2 mil in projected contracts pre-arb per Cots, they'll have to spend it on something.

Could be more if they trade Julio mid-season.
 
Heyward said:
Braves have like 38.2 mil in projected contracts pre-arb per Cots, they'll have to spend it on something.

Could be more if they trade Julio mid-season.
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I'd be curious to see folks spell out what they think is a realistic best case for the Braves this offseason. Donaldson seems to the guy for most people and I guess it is an affordable risk for this moment in time, but how long do you have to guarantee.

Frankly, I think top of the rotation pitching is the biggest need on the squad and I could totally justify that expense, but that seems relatively unlikely given the lack of real candidates out there. Kershaw isn't happening I would not think and I don't know that anyone wants to be paying Gio or Cole Hamels like an ace.

I'm not sure you want to pay Blackmon center fielder batting champion with power money to bring his relatively average road splits to left field. Pollock is interesting except that he's either going to cast doubt on his abilities or ratchet up his price this year. You can pay McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gomez for their decline years? Maybe one of those contracts falls to you?

So maybe something like Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones, Flowers, and one or two mid range relievers and perhaps an aging veteran starter to fill out the rotation. That's maybe getting past the budget really.
 
My hope is that a lot of the available cash is used to lock up some of the young studs, and then the remainder is used to fill needs through trades from teams looking to upgrade via free agency. I don't keep up with things enough to know what possibilities are out there for 3B/LF/catchers that other teams may be willing to move on from. I'm sure someone else here does. The long term budget restraints dismiss any possibility of a big long term signing, but the last 2 or 3 years of declining 3-4 WAR players should fit at positions of need.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'd be curious to see folks spell out what they think is a realistic best case for the Braves this offseason. Donaldson seems to the guy for most people and I guess it is an affordable risk for this moment in time, but how long do you have to guarantee.

Frankly, I think top of the rotation pitching is the biggest need on the squad and I could totally justify that expense, but that seems relatively unlikely given the lack of real candidates out there. Kershaw isn't happening I would not think and I don't know that anyone wants to be paying Gio or Cole Hamels like an ace.

I'm not sure you want to pay Blackmon center fielder batting champion with power money to bring his relatively average road splits to left field. Pollock is interesting except that he's either going to cast doubt on his abilities or ratchet up his price this year. You can pay McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gomez for their decline years? Maybe one of those contracts falls to you?

So maybe something like Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones, Flowers, and one or two mid range relievers and perhaps an aging veteran starter to fill out the rotation. That's maybe getting past the budget really.
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I'd try to lock up young players like Acuna and Albies, and maybe someone else if one emerges, but even then the Braves have alot of money to spend.
 
Heyward said:
I'd try to lock up young players like Acuna and Albies, and maybe someone else if one emerges, but even then the Braves have alot of money to spend.
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Any extensions to our young guys won't pay them big bucks until years down the road. The money we have next year will be to go next years team.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'd be curious to see folks spell out what they think is a realistic best case for the Braves this offseason. Donaldson seems to the guy for most people and I guess it is an affordable risk for this moment in time, but how long do you have to guarantee.

Frankly, I think top of the rotation pitching is the biggest need on the squad and I could totally justify that expense, but that seems relatively unlikely given the lack of real candidates out there. Kershaw isn't happening I would not think and I don't know that anyone wants to be paying Gio or Cole Hamels like an ace.

I'm not sure you want to pay Blackmon center fielder batting champion with power money to bring his relatively average road splits to left field. Pollock is interesting except that he's either going to cast doubt on his abilities or ratchet up his price this year. You can pay McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gomez for their decline years? Maybe one of those contracts falls to you?

So maybe something like Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones, Flowers, and one or two mid range relievers and perhaps an aging veteran starter to fill out the rotation. That's maybe getting past the budget really.
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Donaldson is the obvious target, but the question really is whether the higher-up brass actually is willing to pony-up the dollars for a top-end of the market deal - they certainly haven't been before.

For the sake of this exercise, let's assume AA gets the go-ahead and can get Donaldson for something in the vicinity of 5 years/$125 million. That pushes the spoken-for guarantees to around $64 million. If they play on Donaldson, they're not likely to play on Grandal, so you give Flowers something like 2 years and $16 million and allow Suzuki to walk and hope A-Jax continues to improve. Now you're at ~ $72 million. As you mention, you're also not likely to play at the high-end of the SP market unless a TOR guy not named Kershaw falls into your lap, so if you get a relatively healthy season out of McCarthy (between 20-25 starts), exercising the $8 million club option you have over him looks like a bit of a no-brainer - even if Folty, Newcomb, and Soroka take steps forward and are in the rotation conversation, he certainly wouldn't be awful to keep around as depth. That puts you at roughly $80 million spent with 6 legitimate MLB-level SPs (Gohara, Julio, Folty, McCarthy, Newcomb, Soroka) with Wright and possibly Allard likely beginning to bang on the door. Make a run at signing Albies to a Ketel Marte-like deal, say 5 years/$31.5 million with two option years that could push the deal to $59.5 million ($1 million bonus - $1 million, $1.50 million, $4 million, $6 million, $8 million, $10 million with $13 and $15 million options). Now you're at ~$82 million. Call Cashman and offer to take the final year of Gardner's deal off their books if he'll trade him for something "fair" ($12.5 million) to avoid paying for 3-4 decline years from McCutchen or Jones - while buying yourself enough time for Riley to finish developing and to transition him to LF.

That puts you at roughly $95 million spent. Use another $10-ish million to add the best relievers you can get in that price range (even just one if you can get one of the Ramos/Herrera ilk on a 2 year deal) and use whatever other resources you have to pay for renewals/arb raises and see what type of range you'd be looking at to lock Acuna up to an early deal and secure a free-agent year or two.
 
If you get Donaldson and Flowers or Grandal then the prospects are there to make a splash for Archer or Fulmer. A TOR starter won’t be signed it’ll be traded for.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'd be curious to see folks spell out what they think is a realistic best case for the Braves this offseason. Donaldson seems to the guy for most people and I guess it is an affordable risk for this moment in time, but how long do you have to guarantee.

Frankly, I think top of the rotation pitching is the biggest need on the squad and I could totally justify that expense, but that seems relatively unlikely given the lack of real candidates out there. Kershaw isn't happening I would not think and I don't know that anyone wants to be paying Gio or Cole Hamels like an ace.

I'm not sure you want to pay Blackmon center fielder batting champion with power money to bring his relatively average road splits to left field. Pollock is interesting except that he's either going to cast doubt on his abilities or ratchet up his price this year. You can pay McCutcheon, Adam Jones, Michael Brantley, Carlos Gomez for their decline years? Maybe one of those contracts falls to you?

So maybe something like Josh Donaldson, Adam Jones, Flowers, and one or two mid range relievers and perhaps an aging veteran starter to fill out the rotation. That's maybe getting past the budget really.
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Something like this is what I’m thinking. If they don’t go Donaldson at 3b I expect more to be spent in LF.

It’s hard to foresee who next offseason’s Yelich/Ozuna will be, but the Braves will almost certainly be players for them too.

If they spend any significant amount of resources on a SP, something has gone so wrong with the rebuild they won’t be competitive in 2019 no matter what moves they make.
 
The Giants need to rebuild, I’d be pretty stoked at the idea of Posey.

Seattle has a few pieces if they tore it down, but that gm seems more likely to double down
 
They like Riley. Riley could be 3b ot a corner.

Ideally they would find a lh elite bat. Is there anyone other than Harper?

I think catcher, 2 relief pitchers and extensions. Likely one big trade. With all of the young pitching it would be nice to have some good multi inning to. Doubt they pay for Miller.
 
Enscheff said:
Something like this is what I’m thinking. If they don’t go Donaldson at 3b I expect more to be spent in LF.

It’s hard to foresee who next offseason’s Yelich/Ozuna will be, but the Braves will almost certainly be players for them too.

If they spend any significant amount of resources on a SP, something has gone so wrong with the rebuild they won’t be competitive in 2019 no matter what moves they make.
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I agree on sp. but they seemed obsessed with a starter trade.

Soroka
Gohara
Wright
Tehran
McCarthy has a cheap option
Newcombe
Folty

Even if they trade and move some to the pen they should be pretty good at sp.

Soroka I feel good about being a solid starter at worst.
Same thing with Wright
Gohara if healthy
Newcombe and folty....likely one is a very good 5
Tehran and mcarthy are both solid 3/4.

We will have to make a trade just to free up 40 man
 
I've said this now for two years, but I'd make a big trade for a legit, no doubt, top of the rotation starter and use that as hopeful bait to lure a big-time free agent bat.

Add the arm and bat plus our young guys and I think we're in a REALLY good place.

I do love Tapate's suggestion on Posey. If there is any realistic way to snag him without selling the farm, I'm all in and a starter can wait. lol

Realistically, we'll get Mous or Kimbrel, though.
 
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