2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

jpx7 said:
I actually still think Foltynewicz can get back to being a 3+ win pitcher, I think Toussaint will ultimately develop into a solid #3 who looks like an ace on good days, I think Wilson is really underrated and will end up starting for Atlanta, and am very interested to see how Anderson responds when he’s inevitably promoted to Gwinnett.

Having said all that: the Braves have big aspirations in 2019, which I think is key context for sturg’s point. At the moment, the pitching stockpile hasn’t developed as quickly as the Braves competitive window has—which I think is why we’ll see Anthopoulos continue to pursue rotational upgrades more assiduously than bullpen help. For several reasons (one more year of arb, Toronto connection, groundball-inducer to pair with a good infield defense, strong peripherals), I think Stroman makes a lot of sense for Atlanta.
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I think he makes a ton of sense, but from all I’ve read the connection actually hurts AA with Toronto it wanting to deal with him. I remember reading a while ago we wanted to trade for Donaldson last year but they wouldn’t. Might not be any truth to it but FWIW.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
I think he makes a ton of sense, but from all I’ve read the connection actually hurts AA with Toronto it wanting to deal with him. I remember reading a while ago we wanted to trade for Donaldson last year but they wouldn’t. Might not be any truth to it but FWIW.
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I’ve said this all along and Stroman wants out. AA likes his guys. I’m not a big Stroman fan, but that would be my bet.
 
I doubt Toronto would be avoiding dealing with AA but it shouldn’t help us either. Closer to the deadline Stroman could make sense but I’d like to plug in Keuchel and give our internal options a bit more time. I don’t think we are desperate for a starter.
 
Coredor said:
I doubt Toronto would be avoiding dealing with AA but it shouldn’t help us either. Closer to the deadline Stroman could make sense but I’d like to plug in Keuchel and give our internal options a bit more time. I don’t think we are desperate for a starter.
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This is going to depend on Folty, imo. If he turns the corner we will stay pat there. If he continues to suck we will make another move. Stroman would be very similar to the pickup of Gausman last year. He's proven to be a 3+ WAR pitcher and will hit FA after 2020.
 
If we aren't going to add an ace we should stay out of the SP market. We have enough mid to back of the rotation starters on this team. But the Braves should be in the realm of making significant move right now, whether it be for Max Scherzer or elite bullpen help. We have the pieces in place to win it all. We have enough young assets and long term stability to push some significant chips onto the table.
 
thewupk said:
This is going to depend on Folty, imo. If he turns the corner we will stay pat there. If he continues to suck we will make another move. Stroman would be very similar to the pickup of Gausman last year. He's proven to be a 3+ WAR pitcher and will hit FA after 2020.
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I think we could use another starter even if/when Foltynewicz rebounds. And I agree: Stroman fits the profile (especially relative to Bumgarner).

weso1 said:
If we aren't going to add an ace we should stay out of the SP market. We have enough mid to back of the rotation starters on this team. But the Braves should be in the realm of making significant move right now, whether it be for Max Scherzer or elite bullpen help. We have the pieces in place to win it all. We have enough young assets and long term stability to push some significant chips onto the table.
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The Zombie Expos are going to want way too much in exchange for Scherzer, especially to trade him within the division; he’s the elite of the elite, but his surplus value isn’t as high as one might think, given how much he’s still owed. I just don’t see the Zombie Expos accepting anything near fair value—with their contention aspirations not yet extinguished, with Scherzer’s HoF résumé and continued excellence, with Atlanta being in the same division—and as value-junkies that’s a major hurdle. Plus, I’m wary of restocking a division opponents coffers.
 
Skeeter31 said:
In what universe has Newk been solid? Other than Soroka, none of the other pitchers have established themselves as anything other than a back of the rotation starter or reliever. Then when you throw in guys like Gohara, Jenkins, and ManBan...yeah the pitching revolution hasn’t materialized perfectly. Yes it’s given us a lot of depth and the availability of spot starters, but to call all of the above solid is quite a reach.
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For his experience level thus far Newk has easily been solid in every since of the word. Then if you look at pen Newk he’s been lights out
 
Jim Bowden said it would take Ian Anderson straight up to get Kirby Yates. What’s he smoking?

Pass.

With every start here of late it’s looking like Anderson is legit.
 
jpx7 said:
Pretty sure sturg’s point isn’t that the system is barren of pitching, but that so far only one of those guys looks like a one or two, and the remainder look like three-to-fives or bullpen guys.
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didn't say he said that. said the system was completely devoid of pitching. which it was. and that's a pretty big issue for a mid-market team.

how do you suppose a mid-market team acquire enough solid pitching to get thru multiple years of contention?

this idea that you can just sign, draft, or trade for the right guys along the way instead of trying to develop them is laughable. either way can blow up in your face equally. stockpiling young pitchers is far from an unreasonable or bad move.
 
Tapate50 said:
Jim Bowden said it would take Ian Anderson straight up to get Kirby Yates. What’s he smoking?

Pass.

With every start here of late it’s looking like Anderson is legit.
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Bowden always undervalues prospects and overvalues proven vets.
 
Tapate50 said:
Jim Bowden said it would take Ian Anderson straight up to get Kirby Yates. What’s he smoking?

Pass.

With every start here of late it’s looking like Anderson is legit.
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Wasn't Bowden the one who suggested the other day that Kolby Allard and Thomas Burrows would be enough to get Felipe Vazquez?!
 
Super said:
didn't say he said that. said the system was completely devoid of pitching. which it was. and that's a pretty big issue for a mid-market team.

how do you suppose a mid-market team acquire enough solid pitching to get thru multiple years of contention?

this idea that you can just sign, draft, or trade for the right guys along the way instead of trying to develop them is laughable. either way can blow up in your face equally. stockpiling young pitchers is far from an unreasonable or bad move.
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Data says you're wrong. Data says the volatility of pitchers make them less valuable overall. Data says to value prospects roughly as: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Pitching prospects are still valuable, as long as their risk is factored in correctly when calculating their overall value.
 
Enscheff said:
Data says you're wrong. Data says the volatility of pitchers make them less valuable overall. Data says to value prospects roughly as: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Pitching prospects are still valuable, as long as their risk is factored in correctly when calculating their overall value.
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Position players assigned a 70 FV go on to be more productive than pitchers assigned a 70 FV. But this covers a very small number of players.

Looking at the 65s, it looks like the pitchers go on to be more productive on average by a small amount.

Looking at the 60s, it also looks like pitchers do better by a small amount.

Then for the 55s and 50s, the hitters do better by a significant amount. A 55 pitcher is closer to a 50 hitter than a 55 hitter.

I suspect the results for the 60s and 65s are flukes due to small samples. But maybe this needs to be looked at more closely.
 
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