2019 Trade Deadline Thread:

Super said:
this is a far more nuanced and seemingly accurate assessment of what happened than what is usually said around here, so bravo.

as to your question...i guess you'd have to technically throw Maitan in there, but he was gone quickly. looking back at lists, there weren't a ton in the top-10. Maitan, Olivera, Bethancourt, Davidson, Kubitza...but with those guys, especially the last two, we're getting to the point where the farm was really bad and they weren't super recent so I'll stop there.
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Lipka was taken #35 overall in 2010. But we may be venturing outside the timeframe for the discussion.
 
nsacpi said:
I think strategy should not be based upon worst case assumptions when it comes to attrition. Which is pretty much what happened with that group of pitchers.
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Was it? I'm not so sure.

They were pretty lucky to get what they got out of them honestly.
 
Southcack77 said:
Was it? I'm not so sure.

They were pretty lucky to get what they got out of them honestly.
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We shouldn't base strategy upon concerns that Soroka, Folty and Fried will all go down suddenly about the same time. If it happens you cope with it as it happens but you don't base a player acquisition strategy assuming something like that.
 
nsacpi said:
We shouldn't base strategy upon concerns that Soroka, Folty and Fried will all go down suddenly about the same time. If it happens you cope with it as it happens but you don't base a player acquisition strategy assuming something like that.
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those guys aren't anything like Beachy, Medlen, and Hanson tho. those guys were really late picks, or in Beachy's case, UDFA. they were lucky to get the solid contributions they got from them at all IMO.
 
Super said:
those guys aren't anything like Beachy, Medlen, and Hanson tho. those guys were really late picks, or in Beachy's case, UDFA. they were lucky to get the solid contributions they got from them at all IMO.
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I'm talking about injury risk. I'm not aware of data showing guys like Beachy, Medlen and Hanson are more risky than Soroka, Folty and Fried. Heck Soroka, Folty and Fried already each have a somewhat concerning medical history.
 
nsacpi said:
I'm talking about injury risk. I'm not aware of data showing guys like Beachy, Medlen and Hanson are more risky than Soroka, Folty and Fried. Heck Soroka, Folty and Fried already each have a somewhat concerning medical history.
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well i think Medlen obviously would be seen as more injury-prone due to size.
Hanson had a pretty violent delivery IIRC.
i see your point tho
 
nsacpi said:
I'm talking about injury risk. I'm not aware of data showing guys like Beachy, Medlen and Hanson are more risky than Soroka, Folty and Fried. Heck Soroka, Folty and Fried already each have a somewhat concerning medical history.
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I think the Braves should operate under the assumption that multiple injuries could happen to their rotation in any given year.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a team will probably have to turn over at least member of their rotation on a nearly yearly basis.

If a club wants to devote other resources to addressing that need, that's cool. It's probably not realistic to expect a team to be able to keep up with the demand solely though the draft or international signings.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think the Braves should operate under the assumption that multiple injuries could happen to their rotation in any given year.

I think it's reasonable to assume that a team will probably have to turn over at least member of their rotation on a nearly yearly basis.

If a club wants to devote other resources to addressing that need, that's cool. It's probably not realistic to expect a team to be able to keep up with the demand solely though the draft or international signings.
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one per year...or 6 in 6 years...again I would allocate draft resources in a way that is tilted away from pitchers in the early rounds...it might leave us short in which case we can backfill by acquiring pitching that is already at the major league level

keep in mind the way I sketched things earlier, 1 member of the starting rotation comes from the international market and the fifth starter comes from outside the system
 
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I said top prospects, not terrible draft picks and questionable signings.

By the time guys were considered good enough to appear on Top 100 lists, which is what we talk about with busts and hits as the context for everything we've been discussing, the Braves haven't had many position player flops.
 
Enscheff said:
I can't really disagree too strongly with this portion of your post.

I don't think the Braves targeted pitchers. I think they weren't correctly weighing the riskiness of pitchers when assigning value to players, and that caused them to overvalue pitchers by some non-trivial degree. That overvaluation led to them acquiring more arms than was probably optimal.

The Braves are very fortunate that almost all their top position prospects have hit. Have they even had a single top position prospect flop?
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Honesty, our only top 100 position prospects to flop in the last 10 years or so are Maitan, Davidson, Schaffer, and Betancourt. And now that I look, I don't think Davidson ever made a top 100 list.
 
Carp said:
Honesty, our only top 100 position prospects to flop in the last 10 years or so are Maitan, Davidson, Schaffer, and Betancourt. And now that I look, I don't think Davidson ever made a top 100 list.
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He didn't. So its only Betancourt and Maitan. Schaffer was pre-rebuild. Not only have we had few flops, for the most part our top position prospects have increased in value as they have ascended through the minor league system. Swanson had some hiccups and Riley a couple times needed an adjustment period after a promotion. But guys like Albies, Acuna, Waters and Pache have rocketed through the system.
 
Enscheff said:
I said top prospects, not terrible draft picks and questionable signings.

By the time guys were considered good enough to appear on Top 100 lists, which is what we talk about with busts and hits as the context for everything we've been discussing, the Braves haven't had many position player flops.
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I think sometimes our fanbase can overrate our positional prospects like Waters, Pache, and Contreras simply because we've had an extraordinary hit rate in the past few years. I like those guys too, but if all three of them hit, then we will have beaten some pretty insane odds from 2016 to 2020/21
 
Are we 100% ready to call Braxton Davidson a complete bust? I know he's a massive long shot, but he seemed to be making some strides before he went down with injury at the AFL and he's still only 23. I think he still has a chance, however remote, of being a late blooming MLB contributor at some point.
 
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