Runnin
Well-known member
Post Election Exit Poll Analysis 10 Key Target States1Prepared by Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesDecember 2020
Key Take-Aways:
(1)•Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states.
•Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016.
•POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board.
•Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups.
•While Biden’s image was underwater in both state groups, POTUS’s was more so in the “Flipped” states, while he was a net positive in the “Held” states.
•VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where his image was net positive. Harris’s image was worse than Biden’s in both state groups.
Key Take-Aways:
(1)•Despite turnout for both state groups being MORE GOP in 2020 than 2016, POTUS lost ground in both groups largely due to a massive swing against POTUS among Indies in both state groups and more GOP ‘leakage’ in “Flipped” states.
•Racially, POTUS suffered his greatest erosion with White voters, particularly White Men in both state groups. However, he made double digit gains with Hispanics in both groups, while his performance among Blacks was virtually the same as 2016.
•POTUS lost ground with almost every age group in both state groupings, but he lost the most with voters 18-29 and 65+ in “Flipped” states. Worse was the double-digit erosion he suffered with White College educated voters across the board.
•Voters who did not vote in ’16 but voted in ’20 accounted for roughly 1-in-6 voters and they broke markedly for Biden, especially in the “Flipped” states. 1-in-10 voters say they decided their vote in the final month of the campaign, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they broke in Biden’s favor in both state groups.
•While Biden’s image was underwater in both state groups, POTUS’s was more so in the “Flipped” states, while he was a net positive in the “Held” states.
•VPOTUS held a marked image advantage over Harris in both state groups where his image was net positive. Harris’s image was worse than Biden’s in both state groups.
