2020 Field

Yeah there is zero chance, and I mean zero, that Trump gets 350. He's polling at or worse than most Dem candidates nationally as it is. At this point, even if he survives impeachment, he has an uphill battle to retain the Oval Office.

As of now, Biden is absolutely blowing Trump away in state polling in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio (basically the 3 key battle ground states that won him the election). I'm talking about 5+ points in each of those states. Warren and Sanders also have roughly 3 points leads in those states as well.

Biden also holds a 2 point lead in Florida, with Trump having an extremely narrow lead vs other candidates, suggesting Florida will likely be a toss up yet again.

The same is true for Arizona, which has been pretty hard Republican but where Trump has alienated Republican voters with his beef with the late John McCain.

And while Virginia polling is harder to find, the polls I have seen suggest Biden has a comfortable lead there as well.


Trump cannot win without pulling at least 1 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And if he loses Florida, he'll have to win all 3 of the aforementioned states along with Virginia. Even then, he wouldn't pull anywhere close to 350.
 
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Carp said:
Yeah there is zero chance, and I mean zero, that Trump gets 350. He's polling at or worse than most Dem candidates nationally as it is. At this point, even if he survives impeachment, he has an uphill battle to retain the Oval Office.

As of now, Biden is absolutely blowing Trump away in state polling in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio (basically the 3 key battle ground states that won him the election). I'm talking about 5+ points in each of those states. Warren and Sanders also have roughly 3 points leads in those states as well.

Biden also holds a 2 point lead in Florida, with Trump having an extremely narrow lead vs other candidates, suggesting Florida will likely be a toss up yet again.

The same is true for Arizona, which has been pretty hard Republican but where Trump has alienated voters with his beef with the late John McCain.

And while Virginia polling is harder to find, the polls I have seen suggest Biden has a comfortable lead there as well.


Trump cannot win without pulling at least 2 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And if he loses Florida, he'll have to win all 3 of the aforementioned states along with Virginia. Even then, he wouldn't pull anywhere close to 350.
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Biden has moderate appeal and doesn't energize Trump's base like other candidates. I suspect if he had run in 2016, he'd have won as the prospect of President Hillary motivated a lot of conservatives. Warren and Sanders would probably stoke similar concern among conservatives. Biden doesn't draw near as much venom. Biden's biggest problem is the fact that he doesn't excite his party's base and so wont have a cake walk to the nomination.
 
striker42 said:
Biden has moderate appeal and doesn't energize Trump's base like other candidates. I suspect if he had run in 2016, he'd have won as the prospect of President Hillary motivated a lot of conservatives. Warren and Sanders would probably stoke similar concern among conservatives. Biden doesn't draw near as much venom. Biden's biggest problem is the fact that he doesn't excite his party's base and so wont have a cake walk to the nomination.
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I don't think Warren stokes conservatives very much. Honestly, I think most moderate conservatives like myself that would gladly vote Warren over Trump if that was the choice. Controversial policies notwithstanding, she's a fairly likeable candidate. Hillary was connected to Obama (which hard conservatives hated) and rightfully or wrongfully had the stench of Benghazi and the emails hanging over her. She was pretty impossible to like, even to her own party (which is why Sanders had so great of a following).

Biden seems to facing many of the same issues Hillary had: connected to Obama (which is both good and bad), not especially likeable, and the stench of investigations. Also, hardcore conservatives have attached him to the impeachment hearings, which will make him an easy target for Trump's mud slinging.
 
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Carp said:
I don't think Warren stokes conservatives very much. Honestly, I think most moderate conservatives like myself that would gladly vote Warren over Trump if that was the choice. Controversial policies notwithstanding, she's a fairly likeable candidate. Hillary was connected to Obama (which hard conservatives hated) and rightfully or wrongfully had the stench of Benghazi and the emails hanging over her. She was pretty impossible to like, even to her own party (which is why Sanders had so great of a following).

Biden seems to facing many of the same issues Hillary had: connected to Obama (which is both good and bad), not especially likeable, and the stench of investigations. Also, hardcore conservatives have attached him to the impeachment hearings.
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Warren's fiscal policies will enrage a lot of conservatives. She'd also draw extreme action from deep pockets around the country. There would be super pacs swimming in cash with the one job of taking down Warren.
 
striker42 said:
Warren's fiscal policies will enrage a lot of conservatives. She'd also draw extreme action from deep pockets around the country. There would be super pacs swimming in cash with the one job of taking down Warren.
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More than half of Americans support some form of medicare for all proposal. That means a decent portion of those who identify as Republican likely do as well. So while her plan certainly has some holes and is extremely costly, there at least is a presence of general support for it, even if not her specific plan. The Green New Deal or whatever initiative she is supporting this week, is definitely a bigger obstacle, imo. She'd do better dialing that back a good bit, at least on the campaign trail, if she wants to score points with independents.
 
Carp said:
This is approval rating. Not polling for the 2020 election. While it's definitely up from the 17.8 percent he had last month, one month worth of data is pretty useless.
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And of course people actually have to pull the lever. But, I have been mentioning this for a couple of years now.

Trump is clearly not a traditional republican and therefore I think he can get his message across the the unfortunate monolithic nature of the African American voting bloc. There are many reasons to believe that these approval numbers are real. Not in that 34% of blacks will vote for Trump. I know that is not going to happen. But if the voting number gets close to even 20% then the Democratic party has a HUGE issue on their hands moving forward.
 
thethe said:
And of course people actually have to pull the lever. But, I have been mentioning this for a couple of years now.

Trump is clearly not a traditional republican and therefore I think he can get his message across the the unfortunate monolithic nature of the African American voting bloc. There are many reasons to believe that these approval numbers are real. Not in that 34% of blacks will vote for Trump. I know that is not going to happen. But if the voting number gets close to even 20% then the Democratic party has a HUGE issue on their hands moving forward.
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I mean a month ago, 85 percent of African Americans polled said they would vote for any Dem over Trump. And those numbers match up with Trump's approval ratings among African Americans during his presidency. I'd say it's more likely this poll was an anomaly and you'll see next month's numbers much closer to what they have consistently been polling at. We'll revisit in a month and see if it truly is trending upward.
 
Carp said:
I mean a month ago, 85 percent of African Americans polled said they would vote for any Dem over Trump. And those numbers match up with Trump's approval ratings among African Americans during his presidency. I'd say it's more likely this poll was an anomaly and you'll see next month's numbers much closer to what they have consistently been polling at. We'll revisit in a month and see if it truly is trending upward.
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Wouldn't you say 15% is a trend upward in comparison to the 'traditional' republican and even where his numbers ended up in 2016?
 
Carp said:
More than half of Americans support some form of medicare for all proposal. That means a decent portion of those who identify as Republican likely do as well. So while her plan certainly has some holes and is extremely costly, there at least is a presence of general support for it, even if not her specific plan. The Green New Deal or whatever initiative she is supporting this week, is definitely a bigger obstacle, imo. She'd do better dialing that back a good bit, at least on the campaign trail, if she wants to score points with independents.
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I wasn't talking about her Medicare for all as enraging people (though that does enrage some). It's her tax proposals. In particular the wealthy will be upset and they will dedicate a ton of money to taking her down if necessary.
 
thethe said:
Wouldn't you say 15% is a trend upward in comparison to the 'traditional' republican and even where his numbers ended up in 2016?
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This is ANY Democrat vs Trump. I wouldn't vote for Biden because of his horrific human rights record. Doesnt make me any less against Trump. Theres a lot of reasons AA would or should not support Biden or Buttigieg.
 
thethe said:
Wouldn't you say 15% is a trend upward in comparison to the 'traditional' republican and even where his numbers ended up in 2016?
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Your fallacy is assuming the other 15 percent would all vote Trump. HRC pulled 88 percent of the black vote in 2016 (in line with current statistics) and Trump only pulled 8 percent, with the other 4 percent spread among Sanders and others.
 
Carp said:
Your fallacy is assuming the other 15 percent would all vote Trump. HRC pulled 88 percent of the black vote in 2016 (in line with current statistics) and Trump only pulled 8 percent, with the other 4 percent spread among Sanders and others.
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I dont think thr approval is as low as 15%. The new populist conservative movement has done more to reach the African American voter than almost all Republicans combined the prior 30 years. And after failing black people for decades the democrats are at risk for their automatic voting bloc.

I said this would happen for years now so I'm not just stumbling on to a new idea because of a couple of polls. I believe this is real and has been part of the strategy from the very beginning.

I'm happy that black americans are seeing that the current administration has largely benefitted them and to reject the propaganda of the establishment. Make no mistake, democrats are terrified of these two polls even if they aren't 99% accurate. It depicts a possible trend which puts a lot of Ds out of work.
 
thethe said:
I dont think thr approval is as low as 15%. The new populist conservative movement has done more to reach the African American voter than almost all Republicans combined the prior 30 years. And after failing black people for decades the democrats are at risk for their automatic voting bloc.

I said this would happen for years now so I'm not just stumbling on to a new idea because of a couple of polls. I believe this is real and has been part of the strategy from the very beginning.

I'm happy that black americans are seeing that the current administration has largely benefitted them and to reject the propaganda of the establishment. Make no mistake, democrats are terrified of these two polls even if they aren't 99% accurate. It depicts a possible trend which puts a lot of Ds out of work.
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Except voting/polling trends have remained largely stagnant among African American's. Even the last 2.5 years largely match up with historical trends for African Americans. And again, just 1 month ago, these numbers were right in line with historical standards. You are literally taking 1 month worth of polling data and trying to establish it as some sort of trend.
 
Carp said:
Except voting/polling trends have remained largely stagnant among African American's. Even the last 2.5 years largely match up with historical trends for African Americans. And again, just 1 month ago, these numbers were right in line with historical standards. You are literally taking 1 month worth of polling data and trying to establish it as some sort of trend.
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And next month when it reverts because this was an outlier, it'll be some conspiracy to fake polls, and he'll be in line to get over 50% of the black vote.
 
Individual polls bounce back and forth but the averages for chosen one have been in a very narrow range with his approval rating rarely moving outside the 42-45% range since the middle of 2018. People have pretty much made up their minds about him and it seems will be pretty much dug in until the elections.
 
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