cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Someone tell Sturg and thethe its safe to come back now. We are on the same team again so I will stop mocking them.
2020 Field
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
As my friends in Massachusetts say its ovah.
Biden wins Michigan next week. And administers the coup de gras the following week with wins in Florida and elsewhere.
Stock market seems to like last night's results. Not because Biden is some sort of economic genius. But because voters showed clarity. Clarity in understanding that the main thing is to get rid of chosen one.
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cajunrevenge
Well-known member
who takes responsibility if Biden loses?
Runnin
Well-known member
American Samoa, who clearly have a Google Search and know how to use it, says "Don't forget about us!"
Btw, where the hell is American Samoa???
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A little bit more on Bernie and Cuba.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/8117...saying-i-don-t-know-what-s-so-wrong-with-cuba
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/8117...saying-i-don-t-know-what-s-so-wrong-with-cuba
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Of course Biden has spent his while life promoting mass incarceration. But Bernie is the authoritarian....
If trends hold from last night and what happened in 2018, Trump will find it extremely hard to get re-elected. Young people voted at record numbers in 2018 and 2016 and they voted primarily Democrat (well they mostly voted Bernie in 2016 and so far in 2020). While the youth vote is down so far in 2020 through the states we have info for, it's still early. Dems overall came out very strong in 2018, and thus far have continued that trend. With Trump winning the 2016 electorate in most battleground states by less than 2%, it certainly isn't a promising outlook for him.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Turnout will be yuge in 2020. The cult will come out. But the rest of us know what is at stake as well.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
You do realize that the entirety of the Stock market right now is tied to Chinese production and the corona virus right? You can't be this delusional right?
Here's the deal if you're a semi-rational person. Break the D votes into Progressive (Bernie and Warren) and Conservative (Biden and Bloomberg)
Alabama obviously went conservative with basically 75% of th evote going to Biden and Bloomberg, but alabama is a state that the dems have 0% shot at winning
Arkansas also went obviously conservative with 57% of the vote going to Biden adn Bloomberg
Progressives win 45 to 39 in California though that count is still going on so we'll see if that tightens or widens
Progressives win 53 to 43 in Colorado though that count is also still going on.
Progressives win 49 to 46 in Maine though votes are still going.
Progressives win 48 to 46 in Massachusetts
Minnesota is a virtual tie because of Klobuchar's throwing, Bernie and Warren at 45.3 Biden and Bloomberg at 46.9
North Carolina is a clear win for Conservatives with 56% of the vote
Oklahoma too with 52% of the vote
Tennessee with 56% as well
Texas as well with 48%
Utah is so far a landslide for Bernie where neither Biden or Bloomberg have equaled his total combined
Vermont was obviously going Bernie
Virginia clearly went to Conservatives at 63% where Biden dominated, which isn't super surprising.
So what does that mean? It means that Biden won, but he mainly won because he consolidated the vote. If Warren leaves the stage right now and endorses Bernie every contest will be tight. Biden's best interest is to leave Warren in. Warren's best interest is to bag now before she gets a bad label from the liberal wing of the party for torpedoing Bernie's shot. But Warren is also building a shot at 2024 as well so she may not bag now.
The right move for the dems to beat Trump is to consolidate. Warren moves into Bernie, Maybe even becomes VP? Though I would think a smarter move as a power broker deal would be to bring in Klobuchar or Harris personally to appease the moderate dems. Bernie with a female VP could solidify the female Vote. THen you get Barack Obama out to rally behind Bernie.
There's only 2 things propping up Biden, Obama and the conservative side of the party. Conservative side of the party can go ahead and vote for Trump if they want as far as I'm concerned. Right now the Dems are at a crossroads with the movement that won back the house was based on grassroots liberal movements. If they isolate those folks you have another generation that's disinterested in politics or move to another party and you'll never see again. All to appease the Boomer and older crowd of democrats. Dems are at a point where they could win for a long time if they can get the millenial vote in line with their beliefs. Selecting Creepy Uncle Joe will not be the way to do that. No one under 35 is voting for Biden.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
So who wins Michigan?
I think your analysis is missing something. Which is much of the voting in California, Colorado and Texas occurred days or weeks ago and does not reflect the current state of play. We'll see in Michigan (which Bernie won last time).
Btw I don't see any signs Warren is interested in helping Bernie. This reflects one of his weaknesses. He has no clue about building bridges. Which happens to be an important skill in politics. By politics I mean practical politics. The effort to move new law and policy forward as opposed to "building a revolution."
The House btw was won by moderates flipping competitive districts. The new members who won those seats are terrified of the idea of Bernie at the top of the ticket.
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zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
The issue is though that the Youth won't want Biden. He and Bloomberg don't excite anyone at all. If the "party" wanted to have a candidate that could get the Youth vote they would have told Biden to drop out and endorse Buttigieg. Pete was about the only shot at a moderate who can attract anyone under 35. Biden won't excite anyone. He's a creepy old man. Unless you're really into party politics, then anyone who's showing up now will stay home or not vote for president. I don't think Super Tuesday is a good look for the Dems. The powermoves made to consolidate power in line with Biden, will result in more people staying home, writing in Sanders, voting for Stein, etc. than they did in 2016.
Here's the real facts, incumbents are much more likely to win than not. It's just true. Biden is half the political candidate that Hillary was. If Hillary struggled to get out the youth vote, if Hillary struggled to motivate the black vote, what shot does Biden have? Seriously. The dems are betting on Never Trump crowd to vote against Trump not considering the reality that that is not how this works. It's the same failed strategy they took against Bush.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
If Warren drops out, Bernie likely wins. If not Biden likely wins. It's pretty simple. Biden is not electable. The only hope the dems have is if he names a really exciting young VP that can get youth vote.
As I said in my other post, Biden is half the candidate Hillary is. They're hoping never Trumpers will show up and vote for Biden, but tha'ts a fools errand as never trumpers didn't stop him from getting elected. You can't beat a cult of personality like Trump by playing it safe. He'll win comfortably if Joe Biden is your candidate. At least Bloomberg has some fire and won't get his ass drummed on stage.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is a weakness. No doubt. It would be great if he could excite the yut of America.
But hey the yut didn't show up yesterday the way the older folks did. That seems to be a perennial phenomenon. The yut tend not to show up on election day. So I'm ok with not designing an entire campaign strategy based upon a massive yut turnout.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Biden has a very simple message that fits neatly on a bumper sticker. It can be summarized by one word: Restoration. I think it is the single most compelling thing driving people in this cycle. He doesn't impress me. Never has. But he is the imperfect vessel through which we will get rid of chosen one. Anyone worried about what has been happening to our country will come out and vote for him. Including the yut.
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zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Most of the states that voted yesterday are states the dems won't win. If you break down the states by the % that voted for Trump that voted yesterday
Alabama 62% Trump
Arkansas 60% Trump
California 32% Trump
Colorado 43% Trump
Maine 45% Trump
Mass 32% Trump
Minnesota 45% Trump
North Carolina 49% Trump
Oklahoma 65% Trump
Tennessee 61% Trump
Texas 52% Trump
Utah 45% Trump
Vermont 30% Trump
Virginia 44% Trump
So consider what's at steak with the results. Lets' throw out all states above 50% and below 40% as Trump has no shot of swinging those States one way or th eother and we're left with
COlorado
Maine,
Minnesota
North Carolina
Utah
Virginia
Of those states, Progressives won 3 and conservatives won 3. One of those Conservative Wins though was a near tie in Minnesota. progressive won Colorado, Maine and Utah, the latter is a state Trump is vulnerable in. THe Conservatives won Minnesota, North Carolina nad Virginia. only the latter is at risk of a turn possibly if Bernie got the nom. Virginia is the one state that Biden locks down for the Dems and they shouldn't have to worry about. Bernie possibly sways Maine back into the liberal vote, possible sways Utah into ablue state. Probably locks down Colorado as a blue state. Biden dominating Bernie in Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee means nothing for the youth vote. Where they need to worry about that are the states they lost in 2016 and States they could swing in 2020.
To fix Bernie you just need someone like Klobuchar as VP to appease the conservative Dems (similar to why Obama picked Biden) and Obama to come out and endorse him. Or just for him to pick a black conservative Dem like Stacey Abrams or Kamala Harris. Bernie is 90% of th eway there to being the best shot to beating Trump. Biden is 25% of the way there. I cringe at the tought of Biden on stage stumbling over words while Trump has a platform to spew his rhetoric over and over again.
Biden still polling nationally better than any candidate, including Trump. I realize Sanders is your boy, but you are way over exaggerating here.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
You can cherry pick which states to focus your analysis on. But they ALL send delegates to the convention.
Good luck trying to "fix" Bernie.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
But tha'ts not enough. Look at Trumps approval rating. He's averaging out to 45% approval. Which is where he needs to be. Sure he's not popular. But his base will show up 100%. Republicans in general will show up and vote down ballot. You're not going to get a lot of republicans voting for Biden. it's not gonna happen in big enough numbers. What you have to do is go to the untapped markets. It's where you'll find people, and Biden isn't going to do that. Biden winning the DNC will disenfranchise more voters who will think the whole political process is a scam and will opt instead to not vote. Biden has a lot of work to do to have a chance at beating Trump. He polls favorably but Hillary polled more favorably. And it's why I like Bernie to beat Trump because Bernie is more visceral. All they have on Bernie is the fact that he's a millionaire because of a book deal and he will admit that he's made money and he's paid his taxes and would happily pay more taxes to get people access to healthcare and more. And they'll call him a socialist which he'll use as a platform to talk about socialist welfare programs. Like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, TANF, etc. And make it look like Trump and Co. are attackign the poor, which is a lot of Trump's base. And Bernie could disenfranchise Trump voters. While Biden is going to get dragged.
I hope I'm wrong. But I'm pretty sure I'm not. Biden is not a good or even decent candidate. This is republicans running Bob Dole or the Dems running John kerry again.