2020 Field

The reason is simple: Partisans don't want to release polls that are bad for their side. That means the polls sponsored by a party, candidate or partisan organization tend to be biased in favor of the side releasing the poll.

That's why it was amazing to find that on average, Trump was doing 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the states and districts in released Republican and conservative polls. If Trump actually did 5 points worse than he did in 2016 in the swing states, it would mean he'd lose Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states, plus the ones Hillary Clinton won in 2016, would be more than enough for Biden to get over 270 electoral votes.

But remember: These are only the polls conservatives and Republicans were willing to put into the public sphere. There's good reason to believe it's worse for Trump in the numbers they're not releasing. A study from FiveThirtyEight reveals that internal polls are 4 or 5 points more favorable on average to the side for whom the poll was conducted than what you'd expect from a nonpartisan pollster in the same race. This meshes with what was previously reported by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report -- mainly, that internal polls by both sides that have not been released are even worse for Trump than the internals that are being put out by conservatives and Republicans.
 
thethe said:
9 days out and Biden has no appearances and called a lid for the day.

This isn't a real campaign and they are just banking on idiots that are sheep to the MSM narratives.
Click to expand...

He's up 8-9 points with the ball on the 50 yard line and there's 90 seconds left in the game. Kneel and run clock is the right call.
 
acesfull86 said:
He's up 8-9 points with the ball on the 50 yard line and there's 90 seconds left in the game. Kneel and run clock is the right call.
Click to expand...

Yeah, also Biden is still doing Campaign events. He's gonna run a safe finish because there's no reason to do anything risky. Given the pure desperation of the Trump it's better to just let that lunacy spin out of control.
 
Could you quote me the exact words from the person you claim is saying we should take Putins word on Hunter Biden. From what I read of what you posted he is pointing out that Putin may not be backing Trump anymore.
 
Most Libertarian President of all the times and totally not comparable to any authoritarian today called a reporter a criminal for not reporting what Trump wants him to report.
 
sturg33 said:
how is holding a campaign rally risky?
Click to expand...

Because he doesn't need to. He's holding virtual events which are easier to do and easier to control. There's no reason to hold a rally and risk saying something dumb, or maybe struggle to drink from a glass or walk down a gentle incline.
 
sturg33 said:
The russia boogeyman is hilarious and sad at the same time

[Tw]1320491840018079745[/tw]
Click to expand...

What are you talking about?

Remember that Putin is a dictator. He's going to do whatever he can to put himself in the best position possible. And that is probably playing both sides. Again as I've been saying for 4 years russia is trying to make America look bad.
 
Polling USA Jack-o-lantern
@USA_Polling
·
10h
Just a note: Those Trafalgar polls from this morning have been

taken down because they've suddenly become dead-links and

seem to have become, lack of a better word,

suspicious
 
zitothebrave said:
What are you talking about?

Remember that Putin is a dictator. He's going to do whatever he can to put himself in the best position possible. And that is probably playing both sides. Again as I've been saying for 4 years russia is trying to make America look bad.
Click to expand...

And thr democrats have done a great job at being played.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top