2020 Free Agents: Where Are They Going

Some team, probably a division rival, is going to swoop in and hand him a 4th year guaranteed.

That’s what I’m afraid of. The QO will scare some of the teams like it did with DK and CK and his age. Some players play where they want to regardless and some just chase the money. JD seems like the first one.
 
Many people calling JD to ATL. What sort of contract do you think he gets? I'm thinking 2 years + club option for total of $55 mil.

I think you are spot on. The question is are the Mets or Phillies dumb enough to beat that kind of offer.
IMO there are only a handful of teams that would benefit from JD. The teams are the Angles, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Cards and maybe Nats. The Angles have been burned so many times by older players on big contracts I think they will pass. The Brewers probably don’t have the money due to needing to upgrade thier starting pitching. The Nats will probably resign Redon. The Cards really don’t seem like a fit.
So unfortunately that leaves the Mets and Phillies. Two teams that have GM’s that will make questionable moves.
Hopefully if ether one signs him we will pick a stud with the draft pick we get and in 3 years every time the Braves play them when can bring up how we are glad they signed JD away and we got this stud player with the comp pick.
 
While I loved having JD on the team, I really hope another team offers him a contract against our QO and we get the pick in return. The only way I’d want him back is if it’s a week before the season starts and no one has made any offers to him, then resign him. But missing out on the pick we’ll get for him to sign somewhere else far outweighs the benefits of having him back.
 
Some team, probably a division rival, is going to swoop in and hand him a 4th year guaranteed.

He'll be 34, i dont think with the QO attatched he gets 4 years. I think it'll be 2 with an option or 3 guaranteed with a 4th year option.
 
Josh Donaldson- Nats
Gerrit Cole- Yanks
Anthony Rendon- Braves
Marcell Ozuna- Cards
Madison Bumgarner- Angels
Yasiel Puig- Padres
Cole Hamels- Phillies
 
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What are the chances that Hamels ends up in ATL? He seems like a good fit in terms of contract, years, role, etc...
 
Josh Donaldson- Gnats
Gerrit Cole- Yankees
Anthony Rendon- Rangers
Marcell Ozuna- Braves
Madison Bumgarner- Brewers
Yasiel Puig- Marlins
Cole Hamels- Phillies
 
Josh Donaldson- Gnats
Gerrit Cole- Yankees
Anthony Rendon- Rangers
Marcell Ozuna- Braves
Madison Bumgarner- Brewers
Yasiel Puig- Marlins
Cole Hamels- Phillies

So we’re going to sign 2 more players with qualifying offers? Jeez I sure hope not.
Oh quick edit there on Bumgarner before I posted
 
Yea: better defense by a mile, plus his hard-hit rates suggest a rebound in performance levels with the bat.

Still not "good" defense by any stretch, but certainly better.

A Freeman, Ozuna, Moose, Contreras heart of the order wouldn't be awful.
 
No problem with Ozuna except losing another early draft pick in another season of international signing penalties. Still feel Castellanos would be better bet if/when NL DH comes along and NC would always be a viable trade chip at his age and projected cost.
 
Not buying the Contreras stuff at all. I dont think the Cubs move him.

Don't think it's a given, but they're not likely going to get the young, controllable SP they're likely looking for in a Bryant or Schwarber deal - not enough control over those guys (not to mention Schwarber belongs in the AL). Who's giving them a good MLB-ready pitching prospect in a Bryant deal when they KNOW he's not going to consider an extension?

They lose Quintana after this year, and the option they hold on Lester for 2021 would cost them $25 million if they exercised it. Their window is closing - they can't possibly keep Bryant and Baez, and Rizzo only has one option year left in 2021. They have to replace all three of him, Bryant, and Schwarber at that point (if not Bryant after this season).

They either have to take another shot or two or start rebuilding now. They could give the money they paid Hamels to Grandal if they traded Contreras for a good, inexpensive SP and still have another crack or two at winning it all - they definitely don't have any SPs in their system that will be ready to help them win before they lose everybody. Holy *hit is the J-Hey contract killing them!!!
 
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Still not "good" defense by any stretch, but certainly better.

A Freeman, Ozuna, Moose, Contreras heart of the order wouldn't be awful.

Ozuna’s “slightly bad” (rated neutral last year by defensive fwar) is a lot better than Castellanos’ ”atrocious”. The question is whether Castellanos’ relative youth (1.5 years younger) and superior offense is enough to render him a better option irrespective of defense. Given that I think Ozuna’s ultimate contract will be cheaper (no AL teams are looking at him as a DH; he’s saddled with the QO), and that I think his batted-ball profile suggests regression to better offensive production, I think the answer to that latter question is “no”.
 
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