2021 BA Top 100

[Southcack77]

you said he stopped being "desirable" after 2017, the last time he was average against RHP. which is incredibly dumb.

I never said the Braves should have cut him.

I never would have extended him and probably would have non-tendered or traded him after 2019.

That doesn't have a whole hell of a lot to do with how likely he is to be a 2-3 WAR player in 2021. But I'm glad we could clear that up.

 

[Southcack77]

i just don't understand the vendetta against Ender. again, he must've banged your wife or something. it's completely reasonable that after literally *one* bad short season that he'll rebound a bit. it's like you're mad i don't think he's completely toast, but in reality it's a silly thing you're so confident on. i don't think the point is making it's way thru your head at all, considering you keep referencing "confidence" in Ender that nobody has. you seem to think it's some albatross that will sink the Braves. it's just bizarre. we're one season off from him *easily* pacing 2+ WAR (which i understand is not "desirable" to you if it doesn't include the arbitrary standard of average hitting vs RHP (???)).

i reckon he'd have made more in '18 & '19 despite undesirable back-to-back 2.9 WAR seasons. $8.7M is not some insane number for a guy most rational people can reasonably hope will put up ~2 WAR. it won't be some miracle if he does. it's pretty standard stuff.

When Ender was an elite defender and an average bat, the Braves should have been genuinely happy to start him for almost no money. Particularly when they had no other viable CF options.

When he was an elite defender and below average bat, the Braves should have been less happy to start him for more money, particularly as they began to have other options.

When he is an average-is (maybe?) defender with a well below average bat and the Braves have better options to start in the OF, and they have to pay him a good chunk of change, they should not be happy at all to have him on the roster.

And the reality is they are not happy at all to have him on the roster. No one is. Not one single soul.

He's a sunk cost so they'll try to make something out of it, but the mistake was made when extending him.

I'm just not going to pretend like I think it's likely that a guy living on the fringe of his talents is going to reverse two years of defensive decline (not even mentioning the disaster at the plate last season) or that if he somehow did it would be particularly validating.

An above average defender with a 90ish wRC+ (his near best case scenario) is an ok 4th OF, but not someone the Braves should be paying 9m dollars in their present situation when they also have Pache and Acuna. That's pretty obvious.

I think everyone agrees with that. I'm sure Ender's mom would be equally upset about how blunt I am about it. She might want to try a different message board.

 

[Southcack77]

To be fair ender has had more than one bad short season. He was trending down. We can say injury this and injury that but if you look at his numbers since his all star season and they are steadily going down into god awful status. You can say 2019 was because of injury but really we just don’t know. All we know is he has been below average at the plate for 3 season now and it is getting worse every year.

And his trending down is completely in line with the expectation of what happens to a guy living on the fringe of his talents when athletic decline sets in. Nagging injuries are part of the aging curve especially when someone is not blessed with elite gifts.

 

[MadduxFanII]

One thing I'm mildly curious about is what sort of sample size you need to see before the Statcast data starts stabilizing and becomes meaningful. The issue with Inciarte is not so much that he hit .190/.262/.250 and put up -0.6 WAR last year -- that can be attributed to small sample size, I suppose. The issue instead is that he put up those numbers while his sprint speed collapsed and his exit velocity dropped below most pitchers and pretty much every halfway decent car on an open highway.

 

[Enscheff]

One thing I'm mildly curious about is what sort of sample size you need to see before the Statcast data starts stabilizing and becomes meaningful. The issue with Inciarte is not so much that he hit .190/.262/.250 and put up -0.6 WAR last year -- that can be attributed to small sample size, I suppose. The issue instead is that he put up those numbers while his sprint speed collapsed and his exit velocity dropped below most pitchers and pretty much every halfway decent car on an open highway.

The only hope we have for a rebound is that Ender's 2020 was caused by something that will be resolved in 2021. I have no idea what that issue may have been, and all we have is hope at this point.

It is quite possible he is done as a MLB player, and it should be readily apparent if that's the case during ST.

 

[Super]

One thing I'm mildly curious about is what sort of sample size you need to see before the Statcast data starts stabilizing and becomes meaningful. The issue with Inciarte is not so much that he hit .190/.262/.250 and put up -0.6 WAR last year -- that can be attributed to small sample size, I suppose. The issue instead is that he put up those numbers while his sprint speed collapsed and his exit velocity dropped below most pitchers and pretty much every halfway decent car on an open highway.

he had a similar all-around collapse the first half of 2019 before coming back strong.
as a couple of people including myself have said, i think the Braves brass will be able to see a lot in spring training. his sprint speeds should tell a lot about where he is.
i find it very hard to believe that in the matter of less than a calendar year he went from same as he ever was (good player) to washed up and unable to play in the MLB. he's 30 years old, not 36. that would be a helluva cliff to fall off of. 30 isn't young, but it also isn't that old. we're talking about 131 PAs here. it's far too early to declare him finished.

 

[Enscheff]

This is why I put zero stock into any "reports" coming out of alt sites:

Josh
1:23 Am I too optimistic about Jordyn Adams? If this guy starts consistently hitting for power in-game then I feel like he becomes an elite prospect? The reports from the alt site were that he did that, grain of salt as they require. It just seems like his upside is skyyyy high.

Kevin Goldstein
1:24 It is sky hight. The tools are incredible, but there's still a long way to go there. Be careful of alt site reports. I can think of 200 players who were reported to look great in alt camp, but no reports of guys really struggling. Lots of narrative out there.

 

[Super]

This is why I put zero stock into any "reports" coming out of alt sites:

Josh
1:23 Am I too optimistic about Jordyn Adams? If this guy starts consistently hitting for power in-game then I feel like he becomes an elite prospect? The reports from the alt site were that he did that, grain of salt as they require. It just seems like his upside is skyyyy high.

Kevin Goldstein
1:24 It is sky hight. The tools are incredible, but there's still a long way to go there. Be careful of alt site reports. I can think of 200 players who were reported to look great in alt camp, but no reports of guys really struggling. Lots of narrative out there.

teams have everything to gain and nothing to lose by hyping up prospect progress at the alt site.
and if a guy looks bad, why reveal that?
zero stock is right.

 

[CJ9]

teams have everything to gain and nothing to lose by hyping up prospect progress at the alt site.
and if a guy looks bad, why reveal that?
zero stock is right.

Especially since the Braves were one of 5-10 teams (if I'm remembering correctly) who didn't opt in to share data from the alt site. So front office leaks really do control the narrative.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Since this is the Ender thread now, I think it's important to point out that the extension has been a good thing for Ender.

Seems like all we hear about is people crying about players taking extensions and it's horrible for players. I'd like to see a study on how often these work out for the player, the team or both.

Maybe Ender will end up at a good value over the length of the deal. I thought it was a good deal when signed.

But a lot of guys can't sustain success. And Ender is going to get 5-10 million more than he would have in arb because of this deal. Extensions can be good for players too.

 

[mfree80]

Since this is the Ender thread now, I think it's important to point out that the extension has been a good thing for Ender.

Seems like all we hear about is people crying about players taking extensions and it's horrible for players. I'd like to see a study on how often these work out for the player, the team or both.

Maybe Ender will end up at a good value over the length of the deal. I thought it was a good deal when signed.

But a lot of guys can't sustain success. And Ender is going to get 5-10 million more than he would have in arb because of this deal. Extensions can be good for players too.

And this one was generally well thought of at the time. Hard to say the Braves screwed up too badly. He was a productive player for the early part of the extension, and really only poor at the very end, and only for one full year (thanks Covid). The risk in that contract was pretty small compared to many such extensions, and the cost low enough that the damage turns out to be minimal.

 

[Enscheff]

And this one was generally well thought of at the time. Hard to say the Braves screwed up too badly. He was a productive player for the early part of the extension, and really only poor at the very end, and only for one full year (thanks Covid). The risk in that contract was pretty small compared to many such extensions, and the cost low enough that the damage turns out to be minimal.

Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps we now understand a little better the risk with defense-first players as they get into their late 20s.

Something to keep in mind when the "sign Pache to an extension" narrative starts being thrown around in the next couple years. Same deal with any Swanson extension talks. Defense has been shown to age pretty poorly, so if the bat isn't carrying a player's value, extensions should be cautiously handed out.

 

[mfree80]

Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps we now understand a little better the risk with defense-first players as they get into their late 20s.

Something to keep in mind when the "sign Pache to an extension" narrative starts being thrown around in the next couple years. Same deal with any Swanson extension talks. Defense has been shown to age pretty poorly, so if the bat isn't carrying a player's value, extensions should be cautiously handed out.

Well, hopefully their bats will be good enough to make them valuable for defense and and better than neutral offensively.

 

[clvclv]

Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps we now understand a little better the risk with defense-first players as they get into their late 20s.

Something to keep in mind when the "sign Pache to an extension" narrative starts being thrown around in the next couple years. Same deal with any Swanson extension talks. Defense has been shown to age pretty poorly, so if the bat isn't carrying a player's value, extensions should be cautiously handed out.

I would think a Pache "extension" - assuming he'd sign one - similar to the ones Seattle was offering around to everyone in their system (and White accepted) might not be too bad an idea.

White will make $1 million this year, and his deal carries a $4 million AAV through his arbitration seasons (maxing out at $8 million in his last year of team control) with team options for his first two free-agent seasons at $11 and $12 million. While that would mean you'd be paying Pache the same kind of money at the end that Ender will pull this year, you wouldn't be responsible for paying him beyond his 20s even if he was playing well enough to make you want to pick up both options.

If Pache's bat DOES develop and you've got him signed for those types of terms you're looking at another Ozzie deal.

 

[Heyward]

The thing with a Pache extension, is if his bat becomes better than expected coupled with his defense. The surplus value on that becomes pretty absurd.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I would think a Pache "extension" - assuming he'd sign one - similar to the ones Seattle was offering around to everyone in their system (and White accepted) might not be too bad an idea.

White will make $1 million this year, and his deal carries a $4 million AAV through his arbitration seasons (maxing out at $8 million in his last year of team control) with team options for his first two free-agent seasons at $11 and $12 million. While that would mean you'd be paying Pache the same kind of money at the end that Ender will pull this year, you wouldn't be responsible for paying him beyond his 20s even if he was playing well enough to make you want to pick up both options.

If Pache's bat DOES develop and you've got him signed for those types of terms you're looking at another Ozzie deal.

Last year Evan White slashed .176/.252/.346 and struck out 84 times in 202 plate appearances (42%). But he won a Gold Glove! Mariners fans are thrilled that they committed $24M to him before he'd had a ML at bat.

Thank God the options are only $2M.

I suppose you can offer those around, but waiting until sometime in those first six years gives you a few more data points that I think are crucial to evaluating a player. Not every player makes the jump.

 

[clvclv]

Last year Evan White slashed .176/.252/.346 and struck out 84 times in 202 plate appearances (42%). But he won a Gold Glove! Mariners fans are thrilled that they committed $24M to him before he'd had a ML at bat.

Thank God the options are only $2M.

I suppose you can offer those around, but waiting until sometime in those first six years gives you a few more data points that I think are crucial to evaluating a player. Not every player makes the jump.

Pache doesn't have to hit (at all) to make $4 million per for Gold Glove defense in CF a *ell of a deal. If Ender were still playing Gold Glove defense AND making $4 million no one would be looking to unload him. If the Braves' chances hinge on Pache becoming an offensive force, they're in trouble - serious production from him is icing on the cake, not a requirement.

Gold Glove defense at a bat-first position isn't worth quite as much. Comparing Pache and White is comical.

 

[Enscheff]

I had no idea who Evan White was.

Then I saw the Ms gave him an extension before reaching the majors because he plays 1b and produced an .840 OPS at AA.

Is it any wonder why that organization is so terrible?

 

[Super]

I had no idea who Evan White was.

Then I saw the Ms gave him an extension before reaching the majors because he plays 1b and produced an .840 OPS at AA.

Is it any wonder why that organization is so terrible?

college guy putting up those numbers, too.
he is supposed to be a great defender and runner, fwiw.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Pache doesn't have to hit (at all) to make $4 million per for Gold Glove defense in CF a *ell of a deal. If Ender were still playing Gold Glove defense AND making $4 million no one would be looking to unload him. If the Braves' chances hinge on Pache becoming an offensive force, they're in trouble - serious production from him is icing on the cake, not a requirement.

Gold Glove defense at a bat-first position isn't worth quite as much. Comparing Pache and White is comical.

So when Pache slashes .176/.252/.346 and strikes out 42% percent of his at bats for a minus-3 oWAR and plays 2 dWAR CF, you're going to be okay with that 6 year deal, huh?

You can say you are in favor of making big contract offers for great defenders with MLB sight-unseen offense, but the idea that it might not be a great idea is hardly comical.