2022 FG Positional WAR Rankings

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
FG just finished their 2022 positional rankings: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-introduction/

Here is how the Braves rank at each position along with the top 2 producers:

C - #10 | 3.3 fWAR | TDA (1.7) and Pina (1.5)
1B - #3 | 4.5 fWAR | Olson (4.5) and Arcia (0)
2B - #4 | 4.3 fWAR | Albies (4.2) and Arcia (0.1)
3B - #10 | 3.6 fWAR | Riley (3.6) and Arcia (0)
SS - #22 | 2.7 fWAR | Swanson (2.6) and Arcia (0.1)
LF - #13 | 2.1 fWAR | Ozuna (1.8) and Rosario (0.3)
CF - #3 | 5.2 fWAR | Acuna (4.3) and Duvall (0.9)
RF - #19 | 1.8 fWAR | Duvall (0.8) and Rosario (0.7)

They don't have DH up yet, but we know it will be manned by a combination of Acuna early, and Ozuna the bulk of the season, and will combine for about 2 fWAR.

This is a very talented roster, so none of these rankings should surprise anyone (though I think Acuna will be in RF and Duvall in CF). Every spot is either great or good enough...a pretty good implementation of the "stars and no scrubs" approach to roster building...the best approach in my opinion.

What surprised me is the complete lack of depth behind the frontline players. TDA and Pina compliment each other well, and Arcia is acceptable behind Swanson and Albies.

However, the depth behind Riley, Olson and the 4 DH/OFs is completely non existent. If any of those 6 players go down, the next guy in line is...Alex Dickerson. That is far from ideal for a contending team that should be reducing downside risk as much as possible.

The Braves need a quality bat for the bench, and that guy must be able to cover the corner positions competently in the event of an injury to one of the frontline guys.
 
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Only thing that surprises me a little is the #22 ranking at shortstop. Swanson isn't anything special, but I would have guessed that his general competence would have put us higher up.
 
Enscheff said:
FG just finished their 2022 positional rankings: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-positional-power-rankings-introduction/

Here is how the Braves rank at each position along with the top 2 producers:

C - #10 | 3.3 fWAR | TDA (1.7) and Pina (1.5)
1B - #3 | 4.5 fWAR | Olson (4.5) and Arcia (0)
2B - #4 | 4.3 fWAR | Albies (4.2) and Arcia (0.1)
3B - #10 | 3.6 fWAR | Riley (3.6) and Arcia (0)
SS - #22 | 2.7 fWAR | Swanson (2.6) and Arcia (0.1)
LF - #13 | 2.1 fWAR | Ozuna (1.8) and Rosario (0.3)
CF - #3 | 5.2 fWAR | Acuna (4.3) and Duvall (0.9)
RF - #19 | 1.8 fWAR | Duvall (0.8) and Rosario (0.7)

They don't have DH up yet, but we know it will be manned by a combination of Acuna early, and Ozuna the bulk of the season, and will combine for about 2 fWAR.

This is a very talented roster, so none of these rankings should surprise anyone (though I think Acuna will be in RF and Duvall in CF). Every spot is either great or good enough...a pretty good implementation of the "stars and no scrubs" approach to roster building...the best approach in my opinion.

What surprised me is the complete lack of depth behind the frontline players. TDA and Pina compliment each other well, and Arcia is acceptable behind Swanson and Albies.

However, the depth behind Riley, Olson and the 4 DH/OFs is completely non existent. If any of those 6 players go down, the next guy in line is...Alex Dickerson. That is far from ideal for a contending team that should be reducing downside risk as much as possible.

The Braves need a quality bat for the bench, and that guy must be able to cover the corner positions competently in the event of an injury to one of the frontline guys.
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Not saying he is the answer, but this might explain why Contreras got a little tryout sort of run in ST.
 
MadduxFanII said:
Only thing that surprises me a little is the #22 ranking at shortstop. Swanson isn't anything special, but I would have guessed that his general competence would have put us higher up.
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Dansby will have a career year since he will be a FA at the end of the year. Ranking 22 in SS war isn’t far off the typical year during the Dansby era.
 
22 for swanson seems very low. If that is true, you'd think there is zero reason to spend 10 million plus on him per year in the future.

I think Dickerson is a good bat vs RH pitching. I think the issue is they think Ozuna is better in the field that him and that is scary. However, Snit has said he thinks Ozuna is ok in the field just has a noodle arm. I think that is generous. He's not Gattis in LF and that is the best I can say.

I think it is a little disappointing to be so low in the OF when you are spending Ozuna (15 million), Rosario (9 million), Duvall (10 million), and Dickerson (1 million). Those numbers are off the top of my head and may not be accurate.

IIRC AA had an early roster building interview and mentioned we'd see if Michael Harris forces his way up. I wonder if they are expecting Harris to be an upgrade for the stretch run. That would be asking a lot for a young guy w/o AA experience.

I honestly do not know how much to care about the bench with a DH. Our first run w/ it was a short season but Snit didn't play anyone on the bench. Question mostly becomes how important is it to rest guys and will Snit rest anyone?

Right now I think the only bench player who will play is Pina and whomever is the odd man out of Ozuna/Duvall/Rosario/Dickerson. Heredia likely plays some 8th and 9th innings on defense if we are up. I just don't see Snit using the bench.

IF we had an injury I assume they are going to Contreras. They probably hope they can go to Waters and Shewmake if they have to. No option for a Riley injury.
 
Russ2dollas said:
22 for swanson seems very low. If that is true, you'd think there is zero reason to spend 10 million plus on him per year in the future.

I think Dickerson is a good bat vs RH pitching. I think the issue is they think Ozuna is better in the field that him and that is scary. However, Snit has said he thinks Ozuna is ok in the field just has a noodle arm. I think that is generous. He's not Gattis in LF and that is the best I can say.

I think it is a little disappointing to be so low in the OF when you are spending Ozuna (15 million), Rosario (9 million), Duvall (10 million), and Dickerson (1 million). Those numbers are off the top of my head and may not be accurate.

IIRC AA had an early roster building interview and mentioned we'd see if Michael Harris forces his way up. I wonder if they are expecting Harris to be an upgrade for the stretch run. That would be asking a lot for a young guy w/o AA experience.

I honestly do not know how much to care about the bench with a DH. Our first run w/ it was a short season but Snit didn't play anyone on the bench. Question mostly becomes how important is it to rest guys and will Snit rest anyone?

Right now I think the only bench player who will play is Pina and whomever is the odd man out of Ozuna/Duvall/Rosario/Dickerson. Heredia likely plays some 8th and 9th innings on defense if we are up. I just don't see Snit using the bench.

IF we had an injury I assume they are going to Contreras. They probably hope they can go to Waters and Shewmake if they have to. No option for a Riley injury.
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Personally, I don't agree with how the OF was built at all, especially considering how much was spent on Jansen, Rosario and Duvall.

The lack of a true CF option on the FA market probably forced them to keep Duvall, but the rest of the moves surrounding the OF were a bit odd.

I'm probably the low man around here on Rosario though. I think that was a pretty bad deal.
 
Enscheff said:
Personally, I don't agree with how the OF was built at all, especially considering how much was spent on Jansen, Rosario and Duvall.

The lack of a true CF option on the FA market probably forced them to keep Duvall, but the rest of the moves surrounding the OF were a bit odd.

I'm probably the low man around here on Rosario though. I think that was a pretty bad deal.
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But just playing devils advocate. Does the "true CF option" even exist anymore? Look at the Dodgers model. They just rely on positioning based on analytics and throw people like Gavin Lux out there.
 
NYCBrave said:
But just playing devils advocate. Does the "true CF option" even exist anymore? Look at the Dodgers model. They just rely on positioning based on analytics and throw people like Gavin Lux out there.
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Very good point, and I think you're right.

I think my problem is that if someone told me the Braves would have a $175M payroll, and traded for the much cheaper Olson at 1B, I would have assumed they weren't running both Duvall and Rosario in the OF every day.
 
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Echo the surprise at SS being #22. Would've expected it to be #10-15 range.

Also a little surprised that Pina projects for nearly the same value as TDA. I wonder what the split between those two will actually look like. Do we think Pina starts more than 60 games?
 
McCann'sCans said:
Echo the surprise at SS being #22. Would've expected it to be #10-15 range.

Also a little surprised that Pina projects for nearly the same value as TDA. I wonder what the split between those two will actually look like. Do we think Pina starts more than 60 games?
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With TDA's injury history... I think Pina could easily start 60+ games. I wouldn't bet on it, but I could easily see it.
 
If the Braves are 22nd in SS fWAR with Swanson getting 2.6 by himself then that would be a historic year for SS across the league
 
It is strange. Looking at the list, the top 11 is pretty solidly better than Dansby, but after that, I'm not so sure.

12. Cardinals (DeJong)
13. Giants (Crawford)
14. Tigers (Baez)
15. Mariners (JP Crawford getting 3 WAR?)
16. Indians (Rosario/Gimenez splitting time and combining for 2.4 WAR)
17. Pirates (Cruz, who is being super 2'd, Newman)
18. Marlins (Rojas with 2.4 WAR)
19. Astros (with rookie Pena)
20. Yankees (Falefa/Torres)
21. Braves are actually here with Dansby getting 2.6 WAR
 
These projections all assume good health for these players. That obviously won’t happen, and some teams won’t even get 0 WAR at some positions.

That’s what is likely to happen to the Braves at many positions if the frontline guy gets hurt. There is almost zero talent on the bench.
 
Enscheff said:
These projections all assume good health for these players. That obviously won’t happen, and some teams won’t even get 0 WAR at some positions.

That’s what is likely to happen to the Braves at many positions if the frontline guy gets hurt. There is almost zero talent on the bench.
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I’ve been saying that depth is a major issue for this team. A couple of significant injuries and things could go south quickly.

That’s not too dissimilar to what happened last year, but the Braves were somehow, miraculously, able to tread water until the deadline. You can’t count on that happening twice.
 
The Chosen One said:
I hope Pina isn’t getting starts over Contreras.
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Contreras hasn’t shown me he’s anywhere close to ready with the bat or the glove.

BUT If TDA is injured for an extended period I would rather make Contreras the primary starter at first until/if he fails…
 
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I’m the low man on Contreras though. Really was hoping to keep Lango and trade him but trading for a star hurts. Like Scheff said… if we were going to pony up and trade for Olson… really wished we addressed the OF more.
 
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