2022 MLB Draft Thread

Drafts are almost impossible to predict after the first 7 or so picks. Just look at the mocks in the past 3 months - it's been a different guy for us every time, but the first 7 guys don't change much. There are too many factors in an MLB draft including signability and pool money. Needs are also not as much of a factor, obviously.
 
Nerfherders said:
Drafts are almost impossible to predict after the first 7 or so picks. Just look at the mocks in the past 3 months - it's been a different guy for us every time, but the first 7 guys don't change much. There are too many factors in an MLB draft including signability and pool money. Needs are also not as much of a factor, obviously.
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We all know this…
 
CJ9 said:
Baseball America just put their top tools out. They have Lesko as the top fastball, changeup and control in the high school class. Pretty impressive.
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Him or Rocker if they were there are very tempting. Obviously would have to go over-slot, but dont know if thats something AA would do, spending a good bit of the money on one player. Given we need alot of players after the Olson deal and the overall system just not being good right now.
 
Keith Law updated his mock with us taking Lesko at 20. Also says he’s heard Cade Horton with our pick, but most people expect him gone by 20.
 
Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.
 
Carp said:
Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.
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Doesn't look to be much difference between Ian and Thor in fWAR, FIP, or xFIP
 
msstate7 said:
Doesn't look to be much difference between Ian and Thor in fWAR, FIP, or xFIP
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Ian has been bad but also a bit unlucky. He’s pitched fine as a backend starter. I see an argument for trading for Syndergaard and his rest of season salary (depth, Strider/Soroka insurance, etc.), but I wouldn’t give up a real asset for that pleasure.
 
Carp said:
Rocker is my pick. Would allow us to deal Ian either at the deadline for a rental like Thor, or possibly in the winter in a larger package for a LF. And if Rocker is legit, he gives you a stacked rotation going forward with Strider and Fried, possibly Soroka and a free agent SP.
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I'm not against trading Ian, but trading him for Thor is a bad use of resources.
 
Heyward said:
Him or Rocker if they were there are very tempting. Obviously would have to go over-slot, but dont know if thats something AA would do, spending a good bit of the money on one player. Given we need alot of players after the Olson deal and the overall system just not being good right now.
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If Lesko is there, I think you have to take him. Then go way underslot with the Royals pick, then play it straight up after that.
 
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Hudson2 said:
Yeah you don’t pass up on a potential stud if he’s there just bc you wanna add more players.
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This. Better to take a guy with a 50% chance of paying off over two guys with 20% chances of paying off.

Note, these numbers are not intended to reflect the reality of the chances of a pick paying off, it's just to show the relative chances of one highly regarded pick over two lesser picks.
 
All I heard about before TJS was that Lesko is like the best pitching prospect in a decade. If you can get that with how much success we’ve had with TJS guys, you do it
 
Some Lesko notes from Kiley’s prospect rankings on ESPN. He has him #8 overall:

“I would argue he's the best prep pitching product in years, maybe a decade.”

“I still believe Lesko has the best shot to become a major league ace from the prep ranks in a long time; he has the best changeup I've ever seen below the big league level and looks like a Walker Buehler clone when he's not throwing that pitch. I've rounded down on his ranking due to the Tommy John surgery, but I'm just as enthusiastic that Lesko could be the dude you tell your kids about from this draft.”
 
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Yeah you probably cant pass on Lesko or Rocker if they are there. Just probably gotta go way underslot with the Royals pick.
 
If Lesko is what everyone says he is, it's hard to imagine Tommy John really sending him plummeting that far down the draft board. I don't want to dismiss what it is to go through TJS, but it's a pretty straightforward and well-understood procedure by this point and we know what recovery looks like. It's not like he has a torn labrum or thoracic outlet syndrome.
 
Where is Landon sims (miss st) expected to go? I would love for the braves to end up with him. At worst, he'd end up a high leverage reliever
 
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