2022 MLB Draft Thread
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Hudson2
Well-known member
Outside of the top 3 they usually don’t.
I do think they're pretty useful in reading the "buzz" - as in which general category (HS hitter/college Pitcher) teams are leaning.
Typically they tend to follow the same script as Top 100 lists - if the guy(s) compiling the mock have connected particular names with particular teams, they tend to keep them there rather than adjusting though.
This mock has been pretty connected in recent years: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4.
20. Atlanta Braves
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
Susac falling to the 20th pick in the draft would be a bit surprising, but there is some industry concern over Susac’s aggressive approach at the plate and his willingness to expand the zone. He’s been ultra-productive for the Wildcats and possesses a ton of tools to find success as a pro. He’ll need to adjust things in the box to find sustained success at the next level, but given his usable power, bat-to-ball skills and ability to stick behind the plate, this feels like a steal. Atlanta has been connected to a billion college arms here, so keep an eye on Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jonathan Cannon and others here too. Also, if there was one team to pay Lesko, it might be here.
Worth noting they are projecting Lesko to go to Vanderbilt and not sign, but that note at the end about us paying him would be pretty awesome.
20. Atlanta Braves
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
Susac falling to the 20th pick in the draft would be a bit surprising, but there is some industry concern over Susac’s aggressive approach at the plate and his willingness to expand the zone. He’s been ultra-productive for the Wildcats and possesses a ton of tools to find success as a pro. He’ll need to adjust things in the box to find sustained success at the next level, but given his usable power, bat-to-ball skills and ability to stick behind the plate, this feels like a steal. Atlanta has been connected to a billion college arms here, so keep an eye on Thomas Harrington, Justin Campbell, Jonathan Cannon and others here too. Also, if there was one team to pay Lesko, it might be here.
Worth noting they are projecting Lesko to go to Vanderbilt and not sign, but that note at the end about us paying him would be pretty awesome.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
This is one of those times I'm glad MLB uses regular season record to order the draft and not postseason finishes like the NFL does. It's a difference of about 10 picks for us.
And probably the difference in $1.5-2 million in draft pool money, too.
There are days I feel like Alex would "step up" and pay Lesko, but then a part of me says that the Braves just don't have enough pool money to make it happen. I think that for someone to sign him away from Vanderbilt it's going to take Top 10 money - MAYBE Top 15 if it were coming from the Braves. The #10 pick has a pool value of just under $5 million ($4,980,000) this year, and #15 is just over $4 million ($4,082,900). Even #15 money is more than the Braves have in their entire pool.
If there's ONE guy I wish they'd take it's Lesko, but I think the only teams with a shot at actually signing him would be one of the teams with Top 3 picks (Orioles/Diamondbacks/Rangers). Those three teams could take a legitimate back of the first round college guy first - possibly one of the big-name college guys rehabbing as well like Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker - and still come back and give Lesko ~ $4 million with their next pick.
It would be one *elluva gamble but if you're the Rangers, imagine the payoff if one of Prielipp/Pallette/Rocker and Lesko BOTH returned healthy and you're able to pair the two of them with Leiter in 2024.
Cannon would need to sign pretty significantly under slot for me to want any part of him at #20. There's a non-zero chance Cannon might be there when they pick in the 2nd round since he missed starts with a forearm strain IMO.
IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
A guy I would be thrilled to get in the middle rounds is Maxwell from GT.
I think he will go anywhere from 3-5th round and be a lottery ticket worth taking.
Kid has A+ stuff but battles control issues.
I believe he will be this drafts Strider who gets to the majors rather quickly.
96-101 velo and a nasty slider.
He’s scary cause he could be Newk 2.0 but his stuff is better then Sean’s ever was.
Watched him his entire baseball career and when he’s on he’s elite plus I love him cause he is the white CC Sabathia, 6-7 260 lol
I think he will go anywhere from 3-5th round and be a lottery ticket worth taking.
Kid has A+ stuff but battles control issues.
I believe he will be this drafts Strider who gets to the majors rather quickly.
96-101 velo and a nasty slider.
He’s scary cause he could be Newk 2.0 but his stuff is better then Sean’s ever was.
Watched him his entire baseball career and when he’s on he’s elite plus I love him cause he is the white CC Sabathia, 6-7 260 lol
Right - I explained it wrong, but the thought still carries. I just find it tough to believe that Alex will spend at least HALF of their entire pool on an injured HS arm - especially when they're still in the middle of their window and he will likely be looking for players that can be counted on to help while everybody's still under control.
I've been in the Lesko camp all along and would love to have him, I just don't think he fits the type of guy they've been looking to pop early - just not this regime's MO. Prielipp or Tidwell seem more like guys Alex would lean toward - especially given their recent history of taking guys like Wright, Strider, Shuster, Cusick, Elder, Kingham, and Schwellenbach.
IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
There's a good article on the Athletic this AM about Thomas Harrington from Campbell if anyone has a subscription.
Keith Law's updated mock today-
20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.
As a Florida fan, I'd be OK with this. Thompson didn't hit for as much power as I was hoping this spring - maybe my expectations were too high - but he's a good hitter. Slashed .354/.443/.563 this year and closed the year really strong.
He played infield his whole life but shifted to outfield as a freshman in 2021 to get in the lineup. This season, a freshman outfielder named Ty Evans (who was actually our 20th round pick last year but didn't sign) broke out late in the regular season and the best way to get him in the lineup was to shift Thompson back to the infield. He was solid but unspectacular at second base, but certainly didn't seem like an above average defender by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more interested to see how he could handle third. He could make for a really interesting defender as a guy that can handle both corner OF spots, plus be passable at second and third. But it's all about the bat with him.
20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.
As a Florida fan, I'd be OK with this. Thompson didn't hit for as much power as I was hoping this spring - maybe my expectations were too high - but he's a good hitter. Slashed .354/.443/.563 this year and closed the year really strong.
He played infield his whole life but shifted to outfield as a freshman in 2021 to get in the lineup. This season, a freshman outfielder named Ty Evans (who was actually our 20th round pick last year but didn't sign) broke out late in the regular season and the best way to get him in the lineup was to shift Thompson back to the infield. He was solid but unspectacular at second base, but certainly didn't seem like an above average defender by any stretch of the imagination. I'd be more interested to see how he could handle third. He could make for a really interesting defender as a guy that can handle both corner OF spots, plus be passable at second and third. But it's all about the bat with him.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
Fellow Gator fan here. Love Thompson's approach, love his swing, don't mind betting on the power improving when you have that kind of foundation for a hitter. I think there's a good chance he ends up as something of a tweener at the professional level -- never enough power to justify a corner outfield spot, not really capable of handling center, not really capable of playing on the infield, and so the value isn't really there. But the can't-miss guys tend to be gone when you're drafting in the 20's, and by that point you're just picking through flaws and downsides anyway.
All these guys have their "sources" - and most of us don't - but a college utility guy just doesn't seem to make much sense, especially with the DH now in play in the NL. Guys like Gosselin are ALWAYS floating around, and the Braves already have utility guys who will be ready during the current contention window. With Arcia under contract through next season (plus a 2024 option), the MI is covered even if Dansby doesn't re-sign or another starting-caliber SS is added on the cheap. You have Shewmake and Grissom under control through the end of Acuna's deal even if neither develops into a starter. Before Ozzie got hurt, Arcia just wasn't going to get ANY ABs with Ozuna around and his money on the books.
I realize it's incredibly boring and predictable, but taking a college Pitcher with upside that might only allow you more flexibility in transitioning live-armed guys like Strider/Ynoa/Muller/Davidson into useful pen pieces if you need to go that route with them and looking for HS position players that slide that you can get for slightly over slot in the later rounds that will take a little longer to develop would seem like a better strategy while the team is in the middle of it's contention window. The only way a position player makes a lot of sense at #20 is if there's one available at that point you're relatively sure your player development guys can turn into an everyday player down the road - a kid that couldn't lock down an everyday role on his college team doesn't really fit that profile, even one coming from a major program.