Found this guy on Twitter and have been reading his draft stuff. I have no idea where he gets these numbers from, but a good analytical deep dive on Keller here, who this guy actually ranks as the #80 player in this class, right behind our second rounder Cole Phillips:
Seth Keller has been a two-way player in High School and according to a closer personal contact of his, if he is drafted, Seth Keller prefers to hit first and switch to the mound if he flops. I can see the appeal in him as a shortstop with plus bat speed and elite athleticism but his talent on the mound is so exciting that I’m not giving him his due at shortstop because I think it’s foolish to waste time doing anything but pitching.
The changeup is absolutely unfair. He throws it with a circle change grip but the movement profile is very much that of a splitter and an excellent one at that. During the summer circuit, he averaged -3.7" IVB with 16.7" of fade to his arm side. For the sake of being fair, let’s compare that to every MLB changeup thrown 3+ times. Only four pitchers have as much drop as Keller on their changeup. Of those four, no one averages more than 13.9" of fading action. The most drop by a changeup with as much horizontal movement as Keller is the Airbender himself, Devin Williams. Except, Keller very much does not throw an Airbender because he averages just 1300 RPMs. It’s a unicorn pitch that is easily worth a plus grade.
I’ve heard nothing but good things about the slider this spring too. The slider sits in the low eighties and has sweeping action from a low slot. His mound positioning is somewhat detrimental to his HAA but the pitch is still a low slot sweeper to the glove side that should play off the only slightly lower changeup. It only earns an average grade but I know some people who think it’s better than the changeup.
Seth Keller isn’t really a projectable build but he moves really well on the mound. His arm timing has been on point this spring and he utilizes the entire kinetic chain effectively. He’s only sitting 91–93 MPH right now but I kind of expect that he’ll still add more velocity. The delivery looks a little violent but when you look at it frame by frame, it looks great and purposeful- probably because of the athleticism that lets him control his motion.
Seth Keller is 5'10" and throws from a very low arm slot. The result is a 4.9' release height. The fastball is a tailing two-seamer with just 13.2" IVB over the summer and 15.3" of run but the pitch still projects fairly well given the angles he gets from his low slot. I don’t think the fastball will be a big bat misser but it should get groundballs and he has the Changeup/Slider pairing to meet his swing and miss needs.
Seth Keller has three quality pitches and throws enough strikes. Despite the unconventional look, that sounds like a starting pitcher to me. Seth Keller has a surprisingly high ceiling for how little velocity he has and belongs in the top three rounds for me. He’s an Old Dominion commit so I can’t imagine he’ll be that tough of a sign and whoever lands him will be getting a steal. He’s going to go lower than this ranking and in a few years, it’s likely teams will be scratching their head wondering how they completely missed his obvious talent.
Seth Keller has been a two-way player in High School and according to a closer personal contact of his, if he is drafted, Seth Keller prefers to hit first and switch to the mound if he flops. I can see the appeal in him as a shortstop with plus bat speed and elite athleticism but his talent on the mound is so exciting that I’m not giving him his due at shortstop because I think it’s foolish to waste time doing anything but pitching.
The changeup is absolutely unfair. He throws it with a circle change grip but the movement profile is very much that of a splitter and an excellent one at that. During the summer circuit, he averaged -3.7" IVB with 16.7" of fade to his arm side. For the sake of being fair, let’s compare that to every MLB changeup thrown 3+ times. Only four pitchers have as much drop as Keller on their changeup. Of those four, no one averages more than 13.9" of fading action. The most drop by a changeup with as much horizontal movement as Keller is the Airbender himself, Devin Williams. Except, Keller very much does not throw an Airbender because he averages just 1300 RPMs. It’s a unicorn pitch that is easily worth a plus grade.
I’ve heard nothing but good things about the slider this spring too. The slider sits in the low eighties and has sweeping action from a low slot. His mound positioning is somewhat detrimental to his HAA but the pitch is still a low slot sweeper to the glove side that should play off the only slightly lower changeup. It only earns an average grade but I know some people who think it’s better than the changeup.
Seth Keller isn’t really a projectable build but he moves really well on the mound. His arm timing has been on point this spring and he utilizes the entire kinetic chain effectively. He’s only sitting 91–93 MPH right now but I kind of expect that he’ll still add more velocity. The delivery looks a little violent but when you look at it frame by frame, it looks great and purposeful- probably because of the athleticism that lets him control his motion.
Seth Keller is 5'10" and throws from a very low arm slot. The result is a 4.9' release height. The fastball is a tailing two-seamer with just 13.2" IVB over the summer and 15.3" of run but the pitch still projects fairly well given the angles he gets from his low slot. I don’t think the fastball will be a big bat misser but it should get groundballs and he has the Changeup/Slider pairing to meet his swing and miss needs.
Seth Keller has three quality pitches and throws enough strikes. Despite the unconventional look, that sounds like a starting pitcher to me. Seth Keller has a surprisingly high ceiling for how little velocity he has and belongs in the top three rounds for me. He’s an Old Dominion commit so I can’t imagine he’ll be that tough of a sign and whoever lands him will be getting a steal. He’s going to go lower than this ranking and in a few years, it’s likely teams will be scratching their head wondering how they completely missed his obvious talent.
