2023 Misc Braves Talk

sturg33 said:
On the Acuna stolen bases vs Betts convo... etc.

I was curious how his OBP/SLG numbers would be impacted if we incorporated SBs as total bases & outs. Basically just converting the stolen bases to to total bases/outs to match the traditional view of OPS offense.

For OBP, I removed his 11 CS from his on base numbers, because the caught stealing meant he no longer is on base. He gets no benefit from the steals. This lowered his OBP from .418 to .399

For slugging, I removed his 11 CS from his total bases, then added in the 58 SBs... The net of this is 47 additional total bases in his power numbers. That raised his SLG from .570 to .662(!).

The net of it all was it moved the OPS number from .988 to 1.061, or 7% higher.

I know I know this isn't a perfect way to look at it and a single + a steal is still not as valuable as a double... but isolating his offensive impact using the SB as total bases was an interesting way of looking at it to me
Click to expand...

I did something like this a few years back, same idea. Then everybody stopped running and I forgot about it. But yeah, I like the way you’re quantifying it. Come to think of it, doesn’t one of the advanced metrics include steals as part of the calc?
 
sturg33 said:
On the Acuna stolen bases vs Betts convo... etc.

I was curious how his OBP/SLG numbers would be impacted if we incorporated SBs as total bases & outs. Basically just converting the stolen bases to to total bases/outs to match the traditional view of OPS offense.

For OBP, I removed his 11 CS from his on base numbers, because the caught stealing meant he no longer is on base. He gets no benefit from the steals. This lowered his OBP from .418 to .399

For slugging, I removed his 11 CS from his total bases, then added in the 58 SBs... The net of this is 47 additional total bases in his power numbers. That raised his SLG from .570 to .662(!).

The net of it all was it moved the OPS number from .988 to 1.061, or 7% higher.

I know I know this isn't a perfect way to look at it and a single + a steal is still not as valuable as a double... but isolating his offensive impact using the SB as total bases was an interesting way of looking at it to me
Click to expand...

Deeerrrrppp
 
The Braves have a 51 run lead over the next closest team (Rays) in run differential. The Phillies are +54 in run differential. Our lead is almost as big as the Phils amount above 0.
 
sturg33 said:
On the Acuna stolen bases vs Betts convo... etc.

I was curious how his OBP/SLG numbers would be impacted if we incorporated SBs as total bases & outs. Basically just converting the stolen bases to to total bases/outs to match the traditional view of OPS offense.

For OBP, I removed his 11 CS from his on base numbers, because the caught stealing meant he no longer is on base. He gets no benefit from the steals. This lowered his OBP from .418 to .399

For slugging, I removed his 11 CS from his total bases, then added in the 58 SBs... The net of this is 47 additional total bases in his power numbers. That raised his SLG from .570 to .662(!).

The net of it all was it moved the OPS number from .988 to 1.061, or 7% higher.

I know I know this isn't a perfect way to look at it and a single + a steal is still not as valuable as a double... but isolating his offensive impact using the SB as total bases was an interesting way of looking at it to me
Click to expand...
Stolen bases are also just fun. I understand the health risk and the benefit is probably marginal (I always cringe when he tries to steal 3rd with Riley and Olson up because he’s score crawling from second base). But he clearly enjoys doing it and fans go crazy for it. I think it’s one of those things you sort of have to let your lizard brain takeover.
 
Kyle Wright will start for Triple-A Gwinnett in Memphis on Wednesday, manager Brian Snitker said.

Dylan Lee will pitch tonight in Memphis, a good sign as he continues to work toward a return. Lee threw live BP on Saturday.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Kyle Wright will start for Triple-A Gwinnett in Memphis on Wednesday, manager Brian Snitker said.

Dylan Lee will pitch tonight in Memphis, a good sign as he continues to work toward a return. Lee threw live BP on Saturday.
Click to expand...

Any update on how many AAA starts are we are looking at for Wright?
 
Lee and Chavez have to be ready.

Well I mean, Chavez is having to learn on a wooden prosthetic apparently
 
I am not confident that I’ll be able to stay up and watch the Braves and Dodgers series. These 10:10 p.m. EST starts are brutal.
 
I didn’t expect this resurgence from Marcell Ozuna. During the long slump, his peripherals weren’t terrible, but he’s now in the top 10 percent in exit velocity, max exit velocity, XSLUGGING, WOBA, XWOBA and XWOBACON. He’s back to being one of the game's best hitters.
 
Kyle Wright (shoulder) allowed three runs over 1 2/3 innings on Wednesday in a minor league rehab start for Triple-A Gwinnett.
Wright recorded two strikeouts, walked three batters and thew 31 pitches (15 strikes) in his latest rehab outing as he continues to work his way towards a late-season return to Atlanta’s starting rotation. He’s still at least a few weeks away from being an option.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
I didn’t expect this resurgence from Marcell Ozuna. During the long slump, his peripherals weren’t terrible, but he’s now in the top 10 percent in exit velocity, max exit velocity, XSLUGGING, WOBA, XWOBA and XWOBACON. He’s back to being one of the game's best hitters.
Click to expand...

Like an 1100 ops in August
 
Just a reminder how hard it is to win 300 games. There are only 24 players in the club. Maddux is 8th all time with 355. That lands him one win ahead of Clemons (354). Glavine ended with 305 and Randy Johnson with 303. Those are the last 4 to make it in.

Charlie Morton is 39 and has pitched in parts of 16 major league seasons. He has won 130 games in his career. He is 11th on the active wins list. There are 4 pitchers under 35 with over 100 wins: Cole 142; Bumgarner 134; Sale 119; and Strasburg 113. Cole could average 15 wins a year for the next 10 season (pitching until he is 42) and not win 300 games. Verlander is the closest with 254 wins. Even at 40 and needing 46 wins he probably has the best shot of getting there if he wants to pitch into his mid 40s like Nolan Ryan now that he is back in Houston. If he makes it, he could be the last 300 game winner for a loooooong time. Max Fried has 59 wins at 29 years old. He'd have to win 20 a year for the next decade to be in Verlander's position.

And we had Maddux and Glavine in the same rotation and only won one WS!
 
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