2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
We go over this everyday. She isn't winning without pulling the entire rust belt, which seems unlikely as of today.
acesfull86
Well-known member
51.1% seems directionally correct to me. Betting market average almost the same at 52%. Coin flip with the slightest of edge to Harris.
If it's fair and free of corruption they could surely be transparent with the ballots instead of taking people court to keep them under lock and key. They could make people like thethe look bad.
I wonder why they never did that?
As I said before I love listening to the hypocritical nature of libertarians who don't trust the government but totally trust this election system where everything is hidden and not transparent.
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Again, she is polling significantly worse than Biden and decently worse than Hillary in the Rust Belt. Those are states Hillary lost in 2016 and Biden narrowly won. She won't win polling with 1-2% leads in those states. The Teamsters Union polling is a pretty good indicator of how blue collar workers in those states view Harris.
Shapiro as VP would have most likely won her the election.
sturg33
I
You do understand that Silver's model and the betting markets are leveraging the state polling, right?
There are ebbs and flows during every election. You've fallen for it twice so I guess you'll go for a third time.
sturg33
I
You keep saying "I'm falling for it"
what am I falling for? I'm posting up to date information, that I understand makes you mad, but I'm not "falling for it" by posting that currently models that we trust are trending towards Harris
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I mean that's one poll
Morning Consult has Harris +6
Activote has Harris +10
WaPo/GMU has harris around +7.
Of those polls only WaPo/GMU used both likely and registered voters.
Who knows what will happen, but Rs are grabbing onto every single positive poll they can. THey likely don't paint a complete picture.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Generally polls are trending pro-Kamala right now, that won't stay that way of course, but with +1.1 in PA, +1.2 in Mich, +1.3 in AZ, +1.2 in NV, all in the last week.
Leveraging how? Because Harris leading PA by 1 point in polling is a virtual lock that Trump wins PA. Same for Wisconsin. In WI, Biden had an 8+ point polling average lead for the entire month leading up to the election. He won Wisconsin by 20k votes.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is true that the polls in recent cycles have overstated D support in those rustbelt states.
Less so in sunbelt states.
I would be surprised if PA was the tipping point state. More likely it will be AZ or NC.
Is it possible that pollsters have corrected the factors that caused their polling errors the last 2 elections? Sure, it's possible. But she is also showing a significant drop in support in blue states like OR, NY, NH, and VA. Everything suggests that she is performing significantly worse than Biden did in 2020, in an election that Biden narrowly won. Add to that, she is polling nationally much worse than Biden.
Again, if she gets up to a 3 point average lead in PA and MI, I will admit that she is winning a tight race. If she gets up to a 5% polling average lead, I will admit she is heavy favorite to win.
As of today, it's a solid Trump lean on the election.
Again, if she gets up to a 3 point average lead in PA and MI, I will admit that she is winning a tight race. If she gets up to a 5% polling average lead, I will admit she is heavy favorite to win.
As of today, it's a solid Trump lean on the election.
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Polling in NC still overstated Dem support a bit in NC in 2020, but it was generally within the margin of error. I think it's a slight Trump lean, but honestly its probably a coin flip right now. Having Robinson at the top of the Governor's ticket certainly isn't helping.
AZ and GA both look like Trump locks at this point. I really don't imagine support in those states will be swayed much over the next month.
What models do we trust? Silver is okay but way behind many of the top ones who say Trump is winning.
You're notoriously quiet when Trump is ahead and then when Harris is ahead we start seeing your polls posts. On the last Kamala peak you said it was too late in the cycle for it to change and it did change. Cut the BS, man. We know what you're trying to imply but you'll continue to deny it. You know how I know I'm right? You'll go quiet if Trump pulls ahead again.
You're falling for every one of these polls but you'll tell us that you aren't.
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sturg33
I
Which models? The models I trust most are Silver and the betting markets. Which model do you think is best (model =/= poll)
I don't think I'm ever quiet around these parts - probably the most active poster here. And I have certainly shared Silver's model predicting a Trump win multiple times. I am quiet when we get bombarded with random polls with the calls of landslides and 400 EVs, bc there is no point in engaging that nonsense
Can you link to this post? I don't think I've ever said Trump can't beat Kamala. In fact, seeing as how she's a marxist, the most I've said is if he fails to beat this horrific candidate, then we better never hear from him again. But I'd love to see the post you're referring to
What I'm implying is that Trump is a horrendous candidate who is barely beating, or perhaps even losing to the worst presidential candidate in history.
It'd be the first time in a long time I went quiet around these parts
Again - I don't know what I'm "falling for." You yourself have posted Silver's model multiple times. Did you "fall for it?"
LOL
sturg33
I
I abandoned 538 after I learned Silver left
Isn't it the same methodology?