2024 Field

Tapate50 said:
I had heard DJT was up there, but down ballot GOP was down (in NV)?
I think DJT gets NC and GA as well.
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NV will be close, but Harris has nearly a 2 point lead in NV polls that were, on average, very accurate in 2020. Biden finished with a 2.4% lead in the polls and won by that amount.

And they were off by roughly 3% in favor of Clinton in 2016. If I had to choose today, I would say NV goes blue and NC goes red.
 
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Tapate50 said:
She’s gotta get em all.
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I think so too. Small chance see can still win if she pulls NC. But not if Trump takes WI and PA. The path to win is much simpler for Trump. GA and AZ are virtual locks to flip back red. NC is close but leaning Red. PA is leaning red. WI might be too.
 
As of today, I am predicting 291 EVs for Trump. I think Trump pulls WI and PA, along with holding NC, GA, and AZ.

Decent chance he could pull MI. Much smaller chance that he pulls NV or VA.
 
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Gonna wait atleast 2 more weeks before making myprediction but right now I am leaning.....

Nevada - Harris by 0.5%
Michigan - Harris by 0.5%
Minnesota - Harris by 6
Pennsylvania - Harris by 0.1%
Wisconsin - Harris by 0.4%

Florida - Trump by 4%. I was gonna say 5 but I think his humiliation of RDS costs him a few votes.
Georgia - Trump by 1.5%
Iowa - Trump by 5%
North Carolina - Trump by 1.1%
Texas - Trump by 4%

Lots of close races with PA being the closest and enough to swing the election either way. I said last time around the post election time before inauguration was going to be wild and I dont think anyone can deny it was a crazy time. I think thats going to pale in comparison to this time around. Especially if Trump wins. If really do hope whoever wins its a big margin because whoever loses needs to put country first this time around. I know the left will riot and burn **** down if Kamala loses. I know the right will cry fraud if they lose. But overturning an election via shenanigans is not acceptable. For everyone.
 
I think the national poll averages are about right. But there will be some surprises at the state level. I would guess that relative to poll averages, the rust belt states will see Trump outperform and the sunbelt states will see Harris outperform. Electortal college favors the Republicans by 2-3%. Harris wins the popular vote by over 3% and she should be fine. But if she is below 2% she's in trouble.
 
Unlikley Harris wins the popular vote by more than 2.5% when the national polling average is only 1.8% right now.
 
Carp said:
Last 2 elections show significant difference in national polls and eventual popular vote.
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Okay, but again they base their polling methods on past outcomes. It’s bad for business if they miss in the same way for the same reasons.

I do question national polling compared to the overall popular vote without factoring in the margin of error as has been suggested already. National polling can’t pick up on weird quirks like a town in rural America with a strong local Democratic Party or for the sheer number of Trump supporters in NYC for instance, because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze for polling some of these areas super closely. That’s why the margin of error measure exists in the first place, but I don’t think you can blindly state it’ll move in the same direction compared to polling data.
 
mqt said:
Okay, but again they base their polling methods on past outcomes. It’s bad for business if they miss in the same way for the same reasons.

I do question national polling compared to the overall popular vote without factoring in the margin of error as has been suggested already. National polling can’t pick up on weird quirks like a town in rural America with a strong local Democratic Party or for the sheer number of Trump supporters in NYC for instance, because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze for polling some of these areas super closely. That’s why the margin of error measure exists in the first place, but I don’t think you can blindly state it’ll move in the same direction compared to polling data.
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They missed 2020 significantly worse than they missed 2016. We also know Harris has significantly less support than either Hillary or Biden did, part of that is certainly the manner in which she became the nominee, but it doesn't change that fact.
 
Carp keeps telling you people over and over that the national polls aren't that important. It's the states that are.

RCP average has Trump up in PA, GA, and NC. Even if he loses Arizona (probably won't) that's 270 on the dot.
 
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