2024 Field

Just got a text from Ga Dems saying to join them for music, food, and everything you need to vote early for Kamala Harris.

How’s that legal ?

Great point went around X a couple of days ago.

Democrats are dog**** at running citites effectively. Somehow they are really really good at getting ballots filled out though.
 
Great point went around X a couple of days ago.

Democrats are dog**** at running citites effectively. Somehow they are really really good at getting ballots filled out though.

That’s a ****-awful point actually.

1) Governing and Politics are two entirely different things. It’s different people doing it, has different skills required and is dependent on different circumstances.

2) It’s really just your opinion that major cities are run particularly poorly. It’s *perhaps* a bit more complicated to keep NYC or Chicago running well than a small town given the millions of ****ing people in them.

3) Most importantly, it’s just directly wrong that they are particularly good at driving the vote in cities. If they were, Dems would win basically every election unless all the people not voting in cities are the Republicans who think their votes don’t count or something.
 
They’ve got Obama running around shaming black men a month before the election. Harris is so far underwater with many groupings in comparison to Biden. It’s not hard to see.

For anyone that things polling errors were magically fixed as well will be disappointed after Election Day.

Bottom is falling out in the fake kommela campaign.

All I know is we’ve played this exact game each of the last 6 years, and you’ve yet to be proven right once. I think it’s highly plausible that Donald Trump is our next President. But I just don’t see how you can be actively confident in it given the numbers right now that largely show Harris *slightly* ahead.
 
That’s a ****-awful point actually.

1) Governing and Politics are two entirely different things. It’s different people doing it, has different skills required and is dependent on different circumstances.

2) It’s really just your opinion that major cities are run particularly poorly. It’s *perhaps* a bit more complicated to keep NYC or Chicago running well than a small town given the millions of ****ing people in them.

3) Most importantly, it’s just directly wrong that they are particularly good at driving the vote in cities. If they were, Dems would win basically every election unless all the people not voting in cities are the Republicans who think their votes don’t count or something.

NYC just introduced the trash can.

Like spent millions on a study that got them….

A trash can.
 
All I know is we’ve played this exact game each of the last 6 years, and you’ve yet to be proven right once. I think it’s highly plausible that Donald Trump is our next President. But I just don’t see how you can be actively confident in it given the numbers right now that largely show Harris *slightly* ahead.

RCP (which doesn't factor in national polls to state polling) has Trump leading every swing state except for Wisconsin, which has a Harris lead of .3.

It takes some pretty thick rose colored glasses to believe Harris has anything close to a slight lead at the moment.
 
That’s a ****-awful point actually.

1) Governing and Politics are two entirely different things. It’s different people doing it, has different skills required and is dependent on different circumstances.

2) It’s really just your opinion that major cities are run particularly poorly. It’s *perhaps* a bit more complicated to keep NYC or Chicago running well than a small town given the millions of ****ing people in them.

3) Most importantly, it’s just directly wrong that they are particularly good at driving the vote in cities. If they were, Dems would win basically every election unless all the people not voting in cities are the Republicans who think their votes don’t count or something.

Yeah - They conveniently got tremendous turnout increases relative to all non major urban areas in 2020.

Because they run the cities so well (crime soaring 'unreported' - major retailers leaving - people flocking to Florida/Texas).

we all get it - Everything is perfect in your eyes so having a ruthless ballot gathering operation seems normal.
 
All I know is we’ve played this exact game each of the last 6 years, and you’ve yet to be proven right once. I think it’s highly plausible that Donald Trump is our next President. But I just don’t see how you can be actively confident in it given the numbers right now that largely show Harris *slightly* ahead.

And I know you 100% think the water main break was a super serious not lie thing.
 
Yeah - They conveniently got tremendous turnout increases relative to all non major urban areas in 2020.

Because they run the cities so well (crime soaring 'unreported' - major retailers leaving - people flocking to Florida/Texas).

we all get it - Everything is perfect in your eyes so having a ruthless ballot gathering operation seems normal.

You always say this like it’s a grand conspiracy, but it’s really not shocking that the election that made it easier to vote would have a bigger impact on areas where it’s always been hardest to vote.
 
RCP (which doesn't factor in national polls to state polling) has Trump leading every swing state except for Wisconsin, which has a Harris lead of .3.

It takes some pretty thick rose colored glasses to believe Harris has anything close to a slight lead at the moment.

Just because you choose to trust RCP over Nate Silver and 538 doesn’t mean I have to.
 
You always say this like it’s a grand conspiracy, but it’s really not shocking that the election that made it easier to vote would have a bigger impact on areas where it’s always been hardest to vote.

'Hardest to vote'?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA
 
Yes, when’s the last time a rural voter had to wait in line for hours to vote?

OMG - hours?

You have support for this?

This isn't about the massive hurdle to get ID? What about using hte internet?

Finding polling stations?

What other lies are you going to push as if they are what happens on the ground.

Funny thing is whenever 'city dwellers' get asked if its hard to vote they always say its easy.
 
Just because you choose to trust RCP over Nate Silver and 538 doesn’t mean I have to.

Hmmm, sites/people that weight national polls into state polling in their formulas, or a site that actually evaluates the average polling of the individual state..... gee that's a tough call.
 
Not to mention, even if you want to believe that polling is more accurate and that Silver and 538 are more credible, Kamala is STILL polling worse than Biden finished in nearly every single state. You're only argument here is that polling errors will favor Kamala, which is highly unlikely.

Literally every bit of evidence points to Kamala having significantly less support than Biden did in 2020. What Dems have to hope for is that those voters she has lost either don't vote or at the very least that they don't vote for Trump.
 
Not to mention, even if you want to believe that polling is more accurate and that Silver and 538 are more credible, Kamala is STILL polling worse than Biden finished in nearly every single state. Your only argument here is that polling errors will favor Kamala, which is highly unlikely.

Literally every bit of evidence points to Kamala having significantly less support than Biden did in 2020. What Dems have to hope for is that those voters she has lost either don't vote or at the very least that they don't vote for Trump.

Jesus Christ no I’m ****ing not! I’ve seen the ****ing polls that show Harris leading in enough swing states to win the election if they’re accurate. The errors wouldn’t need to fall in Harris’ direction for her to win, they’d just need to not fall in Trump’s direction.

And it’s fine if you want to trust RCP over the other major outlets. But don’t pretend you have some sort of magic insight into the mind of voters that makes you smarter for doing so. This whole argument boils down to me saying it’s a coin flip and you saying “no, I know the real truth and Trump is ahead.”
 
Jesus Christ no I’m ****ing not! I’ve seen the ****ing polls that show Harris leading in enough swing states to win the election if they’re accurate. The errors wouldn’t need to fall in Harris’ direction for her to win, they’d just need to not fall in Trump’s direction.

And it’s fine if you want to trust RCP over the other major outlets. But don’t pretend you have some sort of magic insight into the mind of voters that makes you smarter for doing so. This whole argument boils down to me saying it’s a coin flip and you saying “no, I know the real truth and Trump is ahead.”

Does Kamala have universally less support than Biden did in 2020 or not? What evidence do you have of the contrary?

It is an absolute fact that she is polling worse in virtually every single state, and she is polling worse than Biden ACTUALLY FINISHED in most states. That isn't something that is biased to RCP either. 538 and Silver literally show the same thing.

And as I said, if she can't even poll better in MN with a popular MN governor on her ticket, how exactly do you expect her to perform as well or better than Biden did in 2020?
 
Does Kamala have universally less support than Biden did in 2020 or not? What evidence do you have of the contrary?

It is an absolute fact that she is polling worse in virtually every single state, and she is polling worse than Biden ACTUALLY FINISHED in most states. That isn't something that is biased to RCP either. 538 and Silver literally show the same thing.

And as I said, if she can't even poll better in MN with a popular MN governor on her ticket, how exactly do you expect her to perform as well or better than Biden did in 2020?

How Tim Walz can be considered a popular Governor from MN folks is beyond me. Something going on in those 10k lakes and it ain't above board.
 
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