zbhargrove
Well-known member
Sure I’ll own it. Seemed as plausible a reason as any in the early going.
2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
Sure I’ll own it. Seemed as plausible a reason as any in the early going.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Bernie is a senator from Vermont who's very popular in NH, Biden and Bernie were there for 2 main reasons.
Sure up Harris
But more importantly try to win a governorship and US House DIstrict 2's long term representative retired and they want to drum up excitement for that. THe push for down ballot in NH is strong. NH Governorship is wide open as Sununu is stepping down and his rep replacement is already outsted miserable senator Kelly Ayotte.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Honestly, I have no idea. My gut says Trump is going to win the Electoral College and Kamala the popular vote. I did all the states independently then added them up and it had Kamala winning. But I still think its basically a coin flip. I will stick with my Election Projection which has Kamala winning. I think a good rule of thumb was/is to assume Trump overperforms polls by 2% but I kind of negated that seeing all the Republican leaning polls flooding the average and placed more weight on the independent highly rated polls.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
Maybe I missed it but Trump sure didnt seem to keen on saying Taiwan isnt China. Theres a whole lot he could have said and down regarding Taiwan that would have really pissed off China. Its kind of funny after someone goes on about how our sanctions cant effect China that Trump is now saying if China invades Taiwan he will respond with sanctions. Kind of weird for Trump to say he would go that route when he always tries to portray himself as some tough guy. No "Fire and fury like the world has never seen before" kind of threats for China. Just sanctions. Very low energy.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I was going to say "how the hell am I supposed to know where it came from" but you make a good point. I never heard it came from a bat at a meat market 1 mile from the lab. If I heard that I would have assumed the bat came from the lab in the first place if thats how it went.
You’re right about where I am, honestly. Though I think even this is reading too far into the polling. My advice at this point to everyone is to just ignore any more polls unless something significant happens and go find something else to do until the week of 11/5. This race is the toss-up to end all toss-ups.
The one thing regarding polls that I believe is different now vs 2016 and 2020. I don't think there is a silent trump vote. I could be wrong but I just feel everyone is basically out in the open for who they are voting for one way or the other. So that could lead to Trump not over performing relative to the polls that he has done in years past.
Yep, I agree with this being a strong possibility and also agree it could be wrong. A lot of the overly optimistic Trump takes right now seem to absolutely rely on those polling errors from previous elections holding true, and I just don’t think it’s something you can count on. I can certainly see why people think it will happen, but the sheer level of confidence some have that it absolutely will feels misplaced to me.
SO you threw out all the polls you didn't like, even though those "Republican leaning polls" were far more accurate than the polls you're looking at. Did you happen to throw out the Dem leaning polls as well, or do those not exist in cajun imaginary land?
The problem is that these sort of people generally aren't the ones being polled.
That was the case in mid September for sure. Now the polling suggests a fairly strong Trump lead in the electoral college and basically a coin flip in the popular vote. No polling error needs baked in to show Trump leading. Kamala probably needs the polling error to be in her favor this time to have a shot. And that seems... unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. Again, everything points to her having significantly less support than Biden or Hillary.
Is that true? I assumed it was the guy who would say he's voting for Biden/undecided when confronted about it but in reality would vote for Trump. Despite what the media/certain pockets of the internet would have you believe, I think it's a lot more acceptable to vote for Trump now, from a public perspective, than it was 4 years ago.