[tw]1787493208605233526[/tw]
'African-Americans, for instance, gave 87% of their vote to Biden in 2020, compared to just 12% for Trump. But that's changed dramatically in 2024: Black voters say they favor Biden by 59%, a 28% decline from four years ago, while 15% say they back Trump, a three percentage-point gain. All told, it's a 31-point swing.'
In the head-to-head poll, Trump wins 35% of independents' support, compared to just 30% for Biden and 21% for "other." Add in the third-party candidates, and Trump beats Biden 33% to 25%, with 18% (as mentioned above) picking RFK Jr. as their favorite. Why is this important? Independents in the last election favored Biden 54% to Trump's 41%. That has, for all intents and purposes been reversed this time around, as the I&I/TIPP data demonstrate.
Another question, intended to help discover how people really feel about the candidates, is to ask them "if the election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?"
The answer is revealing: 43% responded Trump, while just 31% said Biden. Another 25% said "not sure."
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I know for some its hard to understand polls but while this shows Trump gains with almost all groups he is still not in the lead nationally. Thats becuase they use outdated models of likely/registered voters and Trump always brings out low propensity.