2024 Field
- Thread starter Jaw
- Start date
Its even more than the leads. The fundraising numbers are telling as these wealthy donors want a seat at the table and they know Trump is going to win.
And if these debates happen its going to be an even bigger accelerant on Trumps lead.
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Prices will not only decline rapidly (good thing) but we still have absurd amounts of inventory that will remain vacant and then all those people in the 50-75 range that based a lot of their retirement on the value of their house are going to get screwed in these areas.
And then you tack on millions of illegals not articficually increasing demand. Woof - Going to be a bloodbath in these areas.
Fortunately, I live in NY and you can't build enough up here and there is a massive shortage of unoccupied land that is within 20-30 miles of Manhattan.
Prices will not only decline rapidly (good thing) but we still have absurd amounts of inventory that will remain vacant and then all those people in the 50-75 range that based a lot of their retirement on the value of their house are going to get screwed in these areas.
And then you tack on millions of illegals not articficually increasing demand. Woof - Going to be a bloodbath in these areas.
Fortunately, I live in NY and you can't build enough up here and there is a massive shortage of unoccupied land that is within 20-30 miles of Manhattan.
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How markets work with poor projections - Thats what you guys are about to find out.
chop2chip
Well-known member
If they are poor projections, those builders will go out of business and be replaced by ones with better projections. Meanwhile, housing prices go down which I thought would be a good thing to people that care about inflation
What of the property owners that planned their retirement based on the value of their homes?
What about investors that will take massive losses becuase they invested in PE funds that pushed housing?
What bout hte fact even with lower prices there is still going to be a massive supply of homes unsold.
Its a juvenile position to say all we need to do is build more....
chop2chip
Well-known member
My position is I think government should remove regulation to make building housing easier and lower costs. I thought that was the position you also had. If that’s not true, then we can discuss the role of government and what policy they should have.
Government should have zero role in homebuilding. The whole premise of this conversation is that certain people think the only solution to housing prices is building more homes and in certain areas I am saying that there is a glut of supply and instead of forcing the price drops with an aggressive position on building you let things happen naturally over time with the supply that already exists plus planned reduction in migration/future mortality rates of the locations population/removal of illegals.
Otherwise, we are going to get in a situtaion where peoples home values will plummet by 20-30-40% in a 2-3 year period and thats not good for everyone.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I would never argue that “we should build more houses”. That’s what a central planner would say. I have only ever argued for less regulation. It’s an undeniable fact there is a housing shortage across the US especially in certain markets where acquiring building permits is heavily restricted.
Glad we agree. Zero role for government in home building and let market forces find the right equilibrium.
Glad we agree. Zero role for government in home building and let market forces find the right equilibrium.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Markets (and builders) will get things wrong (sometimes bigly wrong). But it is also very hard for amateur outsiders to do better. Everyone has an uncle who thinks he is a genius at real estate.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think there is a niche out there for a financial vehicle that provides people with a way to hedge their exposure to owner-occupied real estate. I'll do a little name dropping (without dropping the name). About 18 or 19 years ago (ahead of the bursting of the housing bubble) I had an opportunity to work with a financial economist (who would go on to win the Nobel prize) on precisely that idea. The product would be tied to a house price index or series of price indexes. It would have a short and long basket. And people could invest in one of those two baskets. Anyhow our main financial backer was one of Bernie Madoff's victims and wasn't able to continue with the project after being defrauded of much of his wealth.
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